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February 18th ?19th?


Typhoon Tip
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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I just feel like people bash the euro because of the lack of data we can see. I've seen many say it gave too much snow, but in reality...if we did see a sneaky warm layer, it would be easier to dismiss the clown maps.

People bash it because people worship it like it is a God. It isnt the same model as it was years ago. 

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8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I can't stand navigating that site. I mean a nice quick point and click deal from a deterministic model. Some sites have that, but they don't have a ton of vertical layers. So in other words, they use smoothing or have a jagged look to them and can miss finer details.

They redesigned it Scott

https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/opencharts_vertical-profile-meteogram?base_time=202102170000&lat=41.7129&lon=-71.8809&station_name=Moosup&valid_time=202102190600

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4 minutes ago, Hoth said:

I just want a couple inches to cover this crusty, muddy, dogshit strewn pack. If we do that, it's a win. 

I am OCD about doing poop patrol everyday and I have 8 dogs. Little guys,5, stick to the paths makes it easy. Anyways you are absolutely in the best place for a jack in this.

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Not impressed at all overnight ...

Interesting ( sneaky) 00z and 06z operational GFS have a weak NORLUN sig pivoting down across eastern zones near-by seaward. QPF band vaguely notable ... It's a weak signal as is. But there nonetheless.  Seems like I've seen that a couple times this year ( and other seasons for that matter ...) and they so seldom do materialize.  Yet, when no one's looking, Portland ME  .. etc. Anyway, seems to linger out there extending west through Saturday evening - ...  maybe (metaphor ) think of that as morphine for weather graphical opiode withdraw clinic while facing the fact that the 22-25th period is also going to prove over-assimilated/over-amped.   Ha - seriously though, the 00z Euro, at least hints that again.

 

 

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It's really an interesting aspect about the general ambit of the technology ... It doesn't seem to matter what species, either ...they are all doing this - all of them.

Noormally, caveat emptor on any D7 anyway. Heh .. goes without saying.  However, sniffing D7 "bigness" and ending up with something considerably smaller impact, scope or scale so frequently as to become notably dependable - .  I don't recall this being the case last year this coherently - I'm wondering if there something about this season's hemisphere that's prone.

The events that appeared more footed in the teleconnector signaling did perform better, all three ... October, Dec 17 and recently.   Otherwise, these non-corrective in-between maintenance sort of systems have all been persistently over-baked.  Moreover, their believability therein gets compounded for two reason really.  The first being human, big storm presentation seeking lenses ( so that parts on us...). The other is cross-guidance support.  That's the kicker for me ...  I mean, the Euro and GFS seldom agree on much beyond D5 anyway; their native biases kick in and those happen to be diametrical .. Euro corrects everything into calligraphic layouts that end up with too much N-S; contrasting, the GFS has too cold of heights (always!) at 55 N which it convert the speeding flow into progressive over-management, W-E...   Yet, both will "see" a given D7/8 menace... both end up weaker. 

So it's not really like we can blame it on a model's native handling  -

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's really an interesting aspect about the general ambit of the technology ... It doesn't seem to matter what species, either ...they are all doing this - all of them.

Noormally, caveat emptor on any D7 anyway. Heh .. goes without saying.  However, sniffing D7 "bigness" and ending up with something considerably smaller impact, scope or scale so frequently as to become notably dependable - .  I don't recall this being the case last year this coherently - I'm wondering if there something about this season's hemisphere that's prone.

The events that appeared more footed in the teleconnector signaling did perform better, all three ... October, Dec 17 and recently.   Otherwise, these non-corrective in-between maintenance sort of systems have all been persistently over-baked.  Moreover, their believability therein gets compounded for two reason really.  The first being human, big storm presentation seeking lenses ( so that parts on us...). The other is cross-guidance support.  That's the kicker for me ...  I mean, the Euro and GFS seldom agree on much beyond D5 anyway; their native biases kick in and those happen to be diametrical .. Euro corrects everything into calligraphic layouts that end up with too much N-S; contrasting, the GFS has too cold of heights (always!) at 55 N which it convert the speeding flow into progressive over-management, W-E...   Yet, both will "see" a given D7/8 menace... both end up weaker. 

So it's not really like we can blame it on a model's native handling  -

It wasn't the case last year because we had one winter storm all season.

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21 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Not sure what the angst is for southern peeps. This was either stronger but quick flip or weaker but all snow. I mean...I’ll take the all snow even if it’s 3-6 over 24hr duration. 

Spoiled rotten....once you grab a couple double digit storms in a season, advisory or even low end warning is meh, esp if it all doesn’t fall in 4-5 hours. I get it, big rates are fun, but they just don’t always happen with the frequency we desire. The alternative is partly cloudy, 37F and breezy with warm bum-bums in the car if you park it in the sun while the pack sublimates. No thanks. I’ll happily take an advisory refresher. 

Funny part is if this event was on the docket last February, it would be a totally different vibe...we couldn’t buy a 3” storm last winter after December until spring time. :lol:

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Spoiled rotten....once you grab a couple double digit storms in a season, advisory or even low end warning is meh, esp if it all doesn’t fall in 4-5 hours. I get it, big rates are fun, but they just don’t always happen with the frequency we desire. The alternative is partly cloudy, 37F and breezy with warm bum-bums in the car if you park it in the sun while the pack sublimates. No thanks. I’ll happily take and advisory refresher. 

Funny part is if this event was on the docket last February, it would be a totally different vibe...we couldn’t buy a 3” storm last winter after December until spring time. :lol:

I get your point s of the pike, but I get like 3.5" over about 40 hours on the EURO....'cmon.

Glorified non-event.

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Spoiled rotten....once you grab a couple double digit storms in a season, advisory or even low end warning is meh, esp if it all doesn’t fall in 4-5 hours. I get it, big rates are fun, but they just don’t always happen with the frequency we desire. The alternative is partly cloudy, 37F and breezy with warm bum-bums in the car if you park it in the sun while the pack sublimates. No thanks. I’ll happily take an advisory refresher. 

Funny part is if this event was on the docket last February, it would be a totally different vibe...we couldn’t buy a 3” storm last winter after December until spring time. :lol:

Agree!!!!

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is one item I plan on crossing off of my bucket list within the next few years....experiencing a 10' pack in the Sierrras...along with a huge LES event.

it was amazing, when I lived in CAL, never experienced it live but drove up there after a storm, up rt 50.. it was insane, need to find some pics.

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