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February 18th ?19th?


Typhoon Tip
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34 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

500mb height/vorticity map is a good crude one....but if we want to get a little more weenie-ish I’ll look at 700/850 levels for signs of warm fronts. 

But typically the H5 level is good for looking where the best upper level support is. There’s a disconnect in this system...the WAA burst is running way ahead of the upper level stuff, and that can be risky for driving the baroclinic zone too far seaward, but it seems like it hangs back enough on a lot of these runs to allow the upper air to reinvigorate the system before it slides east. This is the part I’m most enthusiastic about trending better. Down where you are, maybe the thump can be good, but it’s sort of shearing out as it goes into SNE. Maybe that changes on future runs....ideally we’d get both. 

Yeah. The best runs for eSNE --- last night's 0z CMC and tonights 0z RGEM + CMC --- do the same: vorticity is close enough / the system is slow enough that it reinvigorates it, we actually have closing mid-level lows, and eSNE gets a bit of a CCB.

The models that have weak sauce have this system running way ahead of the best shortwave energy further southwest, and most of our snowfall is from the weak WAA.

Another way to see this is timing: if the surface system arrives later, it has better chance to be impacted by vorticity behind it. If the surface system arrives faster, it fizzles out seaward / we get a smeared multi-weak-low system. Compare at 6z Sat CMC/RGEM (eSNE is getting a CCB) vs. NAM/GFS (system is long gone).

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1 minute ago, TheSnowman said:

J thought you like most were TISH weenies?  I want Snow Everyday of my Life Forever.  I don’t care if I Ever see 32*F Again.  I don’t get it.  

Maybe its bc I'm getting older, but I'm done with 3" over 24 hours at this point of the season...I'd rather warmth.

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36 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

CMC is 12+ SE of Boston.

I think if you’re looking for big snows.... a CMC type evolution is what you want 

Yeah I commented earlier... CMC and RGEM both are slower with arrival of the surface low. I suspect that allows the surface low to be reinvigorated by the lagging shortwave energy more. They both have better closing of midlevels, and eSNE actually gets a bit of a CCB. 

I think there's still room for improvement in the WAA portion too. But the 10"+ amounts will need to see the CCB portion like the Canadians do it.

CMC was ahead of all guidance for Tuesday's turd. Let's hope for whatever reasons the Canadians do better than other guidance in this fast flow regime.

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8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

GEM is like 8-10" on the NARCAN....JP near KTAN to Attelboro.

Like 10-14" southeast MA on Pivotal, and that's an improvement over 12z GEM.

In any case, I think there's room to trend better. Interesting how this evolved from predominantly a WAA thump yesterday, and now those dynamics look weak and instead we're hoping for CCB of a reinvigorated low.

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