dryslot Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 George still going 15-20"? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: George still going 15-20"? He is a navy lover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, Hoth said: Reggie sucks. Tossed, as always. Congrats James Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Yeah, that follow up looks a lot better though. Ends up snowier than 18z in eastern SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, MJO812 said: He is a navy lover He's a bigger weenie then you which i never thought would be possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, MJO812 said: Congrats James That's how you know it's wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Weenies quick to jump to conclusions. Funny how that s/w went to town. That would work if it got going quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Congrats James I'll happily take that. Immediate coastline has been getting the screw job all of 2021 with the east flow events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Weenies quick to jump to conclusions. Funny how that s/w went to town. That would work if it got going quicker. Yeah actually ended up as a solid warning event East Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Reggie looks pretty good. Consolidated the low with the follow up s/w. Yeah best run yet imho for the midlevels...I actually don’t like the thump look on this system....but I like the midlevel potential in round 2. Don’t get me wrong, I hope the thump comes back a bit stronger, but the best upper air forcing is clearly well to the west so it’s not surprising the thump dies quickly as it tries to outrun the shortwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 What a fun hobby 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Weenies quick to jump to conclusions. Funny how that s/w went to town. That would work if it got going quicker. I’ll even take it back here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 17 minutes ago, dryslot said: George still going 15-20"? Yep I absolutely am. I don’t buy the se trend at all due to the se ridge and the strength of the La Niña. As is even if we only got .50-.75 in liquid like many models are saying that would pile up fast due to the the cold upper levels of the atmosphere increasing the snow ratios. Dynamics will not be a problem with a massive amount of jet energy ramming well inland reminiscent of the Superbowl Sunday storm. In that storm my area got approximately .5 liquid equivalent and a foot of snow, meaning the models weren’t even wrong with the precip, the snow output busted because the ratios were more like 20-25:1 rather than 10:1. I expect the models to correct back NW, not a lot, but just enough to get heavy snows back into Worcester and even western mass. 16-20 jackpot isn’t a huge stretch considering when accounting for ratios we would probably be getting around 12-15 anyways if that nam run came to verify. I love where we are right now for the Friday storm, I am much more confident than I was a few days out when the gfs was snowing a snowstorm but the other models were showing snow to mix. In this pattern, the risk is rain like we got today not a miss to the south. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 I miss James 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 15 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Congrats James I would take that and run, 0 complaints with that solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I miss James Where did James go? When I used to lurk here I enjoyed reading his forecasts even if they were often way too high on the cape. I remember in one of the blizzards during that epic March a few years ago James forecasted 40+ for the cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Gfs gets it done for most slowly. Not pretty though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah best run yet imho for the midlevels...I actually don’t like the thump look on this system....but I like the midlevel potential in round 2. Don’t get me wrong, I hope the thump comes back a bit stronger, but the best upper air forcing is clearly well to the west so it’s not surprising the thump dies quickly as it tries to outrun the shortwave. Explained well, makes sense. What do you use to figure out forcing... 500-850 vorticity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said: Gfs gets it done for most slowly. Not pretty though. Is it 8" over 18 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, 8611Blizz said: Is it 8" over 18 hours? Yup 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said: Yup I knew it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Potential exists for a long duration snow event, whether or not it will mean a lot of snow versus a moderate event will be determined by storm track in proximity to benchmark. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Gfs strengthens a bit for eastern ma as it exits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 I liked gfs. I’m guessing we’d get some good growth and the possibility of bigger totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 17, 2021 Author Share Posted February 17, 2021 32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Reggie looks pretty good. Consolidated the low with the follow up s/w. I was thinking that needs to happen it appears the NAM is front soaked with that isentropic snow wall it’s carrying on with but its gobbling up dynamics and escaping seaward with it in its total handling ... leaving less available for Q-V forcing cyclogen blah blah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 22 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I miss James Yeah, where is he with a potential jack down on the Cape? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Explained well, makes sense. What do you use to figure out forcing... 500-850 vorticity? 500mb height/vorticity map is a good crude one....but if we want to get a little more weenie-ish I’ll look at 700/850 levels for signs of warm fronts. But typically the H5 level is good for looking where the best upper level support is. There’s a disconnect in this system...the WAA burst is running way ahead of the upper level stuff, and that can be risky for driving the baroclinic zone too far seaward, but it seems like it hangs back enough on a lot of these runs to allow the upper air to reinvigorate the system before it slides east. This is the part I’m most enthusiastic about trending better. Down where you are, maybe the thump can be good, but it’s sort of shearing out as it goes into SNE. Maybe that changes on future runs....ideally we’d get both. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWolf96 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 How are things looking on Friday for coastal SE Mass? Mostly snow or mostly sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 17, 2021 Author Share Posted February 17, 2021 I’m not sure where my feelings set as I crash here. My taste for this thing soured a bit during the day ... Euros tough to beat inside of D4. I think it’s gotta tick pretty aggressively in this immediately ensuing run. If not it’ll be in an uncharacteristic short lead bust or proven superior. but as is yup ... the mid level magic has had an upshot look to it 300 mb jet !! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: I’m not sure where my feelings set as I crash here. My taste for this thing soured a bit during the day ... Euros tough to beat inside of D4. I think it’s gotta tick pretty aggressively in this immediately ensuing run. If not it’ll be in an uncharacteristic short lead bust or proven superior. but as is yup ... the mid level magic has had an upshot look to it 300 mb jet !! Euro was just fabulous on this last storm.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now