IowaStorm05 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Models were showing more snow with this one in CT but NAM at least is trending north with it like the first system. Did NAO flip positive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, IowaStorm05 said: Models were showing more snow with this one in CT but NAM at least is trending north with it like the first system. Did NAO flip positive? Pretty neutral. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Gfs ticked south again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 V16 went colder/E as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Let’s get that secondary going quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Let’s get that secondary going quicker. Yeah it’s not that far from trying to be all snow synoptically. My guess is we still taint, but if we get a big thump first, I’m fine with some pellets/FZDZ to finish in the slot. I just don’t want one of these 2-4” deals followed by prolonged heavy IP/ZR and 35F rain before ending. Those are an abomination to clean up. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Hope this isn’t one of Rays LB mid Atlantic. Some signs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah it’s not that far from trying to be all snow synoptically. My guess is we still taint, but if we get a big thump first, I’m fine with some pellets/FZDZ to finish in the slot. I just don’t want one of these 2-4” deals followed by prolonged heavy IP/ZR and 35F rain before ending. Those are an abomination to clean up. I’d be fine with that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Hope this isn’t one of Rays LB mid Atlantic. Some signs... Would fit the theme of the season.....I don't really care as much, at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2021 Author Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Pray the Ukie is right for the ACATT crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2021 Author Share Posted February 15, 2021 Damage gets done on the GGEM's 12z ... coldest/snowiest run yet ...and keeps with the trend theme. In fact, I almost don't want - as a snow enthusiast - to slip any more than it has. That's a low climate cyclone with a PWAT advantage, all snow NW of Willamantic CT - Logan ( ~) look there where relative to weak profile .. over-achieves by some. It may taint IP to Worcester, but along and above that line to about S VT - MHT NH looks like 11" max with 7 " downward option - that's my interpretation of the GGEM I'm sure this has been noted, but that V16 made a definitive commitment /jump to the coast ... again - weak/moderate LP, descent QPF mechanics in snow column N of the Pike... It should be noted, much of this is contingent upon two factors - from what I'm seeing anywho.. . One, nascent polar/arctic hybrid high pressure nearly quintessentially located at storm entry ...only slowly recedes E but after tuck jets and CAD effects extend the snow sounding to the 700 mb level - which is sufficient to preclude a warm wedge at that level ...a.k.a. the faulty NAM ( I suspect... ) .. The other factor is a subtle tendency to back off the mid level trough kinematics in the BUF region leading...putting more emphasis in the wind max(s) riding up midriff Appalachia .. That helps trunk off the elevated warm intrusion if that trend continues to evolve - and if so...we may yet see more Miller B commitment and even some intensity given back - that's plausible but not depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 8 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Pray the Ukie is right for the ACATT crew. A widespread moderate event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Shoot the Ukie to the sun. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: Shoot the Ukie to the sun. 2nd best scoring model. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Bad sign when it's the coldest model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 2nd best scoring model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 V3 is a region wide 2-6” thump. V16 is a north of the Pike event. Not much south. Given the trends, I’m guessing this goes mundane for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: V3 is a region wide 2-6” thump. V16 is a north of the Pike event. Not much south. Given the trends, I’m guessing this goes mundane for most. That’s a good bet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2021 Author Share Posted February 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: V3 is a region wide 2-6” thump. V16 is a north of the Pike event. Not much south. Given the trends, I’m guessing this goes mundane for most. How in the hell does that logically follow ? ... You're previous observations do not appear to connote that - 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: How in the hell does that logically follow ? ... You're previous observations do not appear to connote that - They are assuming this one will trend the same way as 2/16 did. Not sure the meteorological reasoning, but that’s been posted a few times already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: How in the hell does that logically follow ? ... You're previous observations do not appear to connote that - I knew that added statement would get a response from you. Hopefully that HP north of Caribou stays put. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2021 Author Share Posted February 15, 2021 I just I dunno ...I guess it's too much to ask of this concentration of internet folk to not be human when it comes to being recently mislead by model "lies" re- the present system, to then come in here and be sloped objective ? ...prooobably not happening. ha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2021 Author Share Posted February 15, 2021 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: They are assuming this one will trend the same way as 2/16 did. Not sure the meteorological reasoning, but that’s been posted a few times already. I know ... It's annoying... I put in bold not to do that - please... what happens - I don't know if it's not really reading, or just disrespect - not sure...But, I guess you get what you get with a free-for-all and the general public lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: They are assuming this one will trend the same way as 2/16 did. Not sure the meteorological reasoning, but that’s been posted a few times already. Not 100% the same but there are similarities. If primary remains strong and further West, we flood the area with warmth. You want to see earlier transfer to secondary or a weaker primary to stave that off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 It has been trending colder and less amped for a couple days now. So unless some are just referring to the seasonal trend..this storm has not been trending warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Not 100% the same but there are similarities. If primary remains strong and further West, we flood the area with warmth. You want to see earlier transfer to secondary or a weaker primary to stave that off. Was alluding to this earlier, There are similarity's with its origin in particular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Always gotta beware storms that originate from the South. They always seem to come in warmer as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Always gotta beware storms that originate from the South. They always seem to come in warmer as we get closer. It's possible any positive trends cease at 18z and we go the wrong way here on out. It wouldn't surprise me..but so far it seems like a moderate front thump is becoming more likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 I’m thinking 2-5” for most. Classic SWFE. Won’t waver as some runs to warm, other runs go cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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