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February 18th ?19th?


Typhoon Tip
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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Let’s get that secondary going quicker.

Yeah it’s not that far from trying to be all snow synoptically. My guess is we still taint, but if we get a big thump first, I’m fine with some pellets/FZDZ to finish in the slot.

I just don’t want one of these 2-4” deals followed by prolonged heavy IP/ZR and 35F rain before ending. Those are an abomination to clean up. 

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it’s not that far from trying to be all snow synoptically. My guess is we still taint, but if we get a big thump first, I’m fine with some pellets/FZDZ to finish in the slot.

I just don’t want one of these 2-4” deals followed by prolonged heavy IP/ZR and 35F rain before ending. Those are an abomination to clean up. 

I’d be fine with that too. 

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Damage gets done on the GGEM's 12z ... coldest/snowiest run yet ...and keeps with the trend theme.  In fact, I almost don't want - as a snow enthusiast - to slip any more than it has.

That's a low climate cyclone with a PWAT advantage, all snow NW of Willamantic CT - Logan ( ~) look there where relative to weak profile .. over-achieves by some.  It may taint IP to Worcester, but along and above that line to about S VT - MHT NH looks like 11" max with 7 " downward option - that's my interpretation of the GGEM

I'm sure this has been noted, but that V16 made a definitive commitment /jump to the coast ... again - weak/moderate LP, descent QPF mechanics in snow column N of the Pike...

It should be noted, much of this is contingent upon two factors - from what I'm seeing anywho.. .  One, nascent polar/arctic hybrid high pressure nearly quintessentially located at storm entry ...only slowly recedes E but after tuck jets and CAD effects extend the snow sounding to the 700 mb level - which is sufficient to preclude a warm wedge at that level ...a.k.a. the faulty NAM ( I suspect... ) ..

The other factor is a subtle tendency to back off the mid level trough kinematics in the BUF region leading...putting more emphasis in the wind max(s) riding up midriff Appalachia .. That helps trunk off the elevated warm intrusion if that trend continues to evolve - and if so...we may yet see more Miller B commitment and even some intensity given back - that's plausible but not depicted.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

V3 is a region wide 2-6” thump. 
 

V16 is a north of the Pike event. Not much south. 
 

Given the trends, I’m guessing this goes mundane for most. 

How in the hell does that logically follow ? 

... You're previous observations do not appear to connote that -

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

How in the hell does that logically follow ? 

... You're previous observations do not appear to connote that -

They are assuming this one will trend the same way as 2/16 did. Not sure the meteorological reasoning, but that’s been posted a few times already. 

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I just I dunno ...I guess it's too much to ask of this concentration of internet folk to not be human when it comes to being recently mislead by model "lies" re- the present system, to then come in here and be sloped objective ?   ...prooobably not happening.  

ha  

 

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

They are assuming this one will trend the same way as 2/16 did. Not sure the meteorological reasoning, but that’s been posted a few times already. 

I know ...  It's annoying... I put in bold not to do that - please...

what happens -

I don't know if it's not really reading, or just disrespect - not sure...But, I guess you get what you get with a free-for-all and the general public   lol

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

They are assuming this one will trend the same way as 2/16 did. Not sure the meteorological reasoning, but that’s been posted a few times already. 

Not 100% the same but there are similarities.  If primary remains strong and further West, we flood the area with warmth.  You want to see earlier transfer to secondary or a weaker primary to stave that off.

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Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Not 100% the same but there are similarities.  If primary remains strong and further West, we flood the area with warmth.  You want to see earlier transfer to secondary or a weaker primary to stave that off.

Was alluding to this earlier, There are similarity's with its origin in particular.

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1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Always gotta beware storms that originate from the South.  They always seem to come in warmer as we get closer.

It's possible any positive trends cease at 18z and we go the wrong way here on out. It wouldn't surprise me..but so far it seems like a moderate front thump is becoming more likely

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