George001 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Another factor in me leaning towards a higher impact event is the pattern we are in. We are in a full fledged La Niña pattern with a cold Canada and SE ridge brining well above normal temps to the southern states. With the SE ridge in place this storm can only go so far south. In this type of pattern I have no problem with the models having the bullseye a bit south of us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 Everybody has their own lens I suppose... Mine sees this Euro run as decaying the whole previous notion into positively tilted shit smear at 500mb... - maybe "muted" is more like it. Because it's running up against the H f'um C compression ... or La Nina... or both ( probably, both). Its like it only manages to dent the surface of a still point water at the instant the flat skipping rock bounces off ... next stop, Svargard If this ends up an ANA piece of shit that transitions to a weak cyclogen for NS... it is what it is. You know I took a gamble starting this thread, because there's really not a lot of tele support - it's a between/ .. maintenance system.. ( or, one that is between correction events) and those are always over amped this year for some reason... This one is showing that now, right there, in that run - ... I wonder if the Euro can be wrong enough inside of 4 days this way - .... ah yeah. Truth be told, I was a little bit worried last night when the 00z runs looked so nice across the board - we're not that lucky It's not like this thing is arriving up in between stable larger synoptic features that are dependably orienting where this thing's destiny should be... So, that much correction that fast, had me spooked .. meh, didn't mention it. whatever - we'll see what happens. 23rd may not happen either - it's the same shit as this one. There are no leading large scale indicators suggesting it is really needed in the restorative, mass-field sense ... and so, I'm not taking another wack over the head with this again - that one is going to be damped just like the others... how much so is the question. I gotta say ... starting to sense a bit of personal seasonal fatigue kicking in. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 44 minutes ago, dendrite said: Good run. Man what a great winter it's been up here..pushing March at the end of the euro now. If someone told me I was going to pull nearly 3ft in a storm, barely snow the rest of the winter, and my lowest temp would be warmer than DFW I'd sign up for that in a heartbeat. Lol welcome to March speed: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 51 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: God, these models suck. They always do when they look paltry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 4 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: They always do when they look paltry. No, the variance in this patter is obscene.....the last one trended NW several hundred mi inside of day 5, now that run was a very significant change in the other direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 3 hours ago, MJO812 said: Rgem has 3 lows Long duration event 3 lows sucks. That has garbage written all over it. I want a wrapped up stacked low. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 There are a few big ensemble members in there. Worth watching. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Looks like the Euro is overdoing the confluence in New England. So that 6”+ zone will probably bump north in later runs similar to the other guidance today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, CT Rain said: There are a few big ensemble members in there. Worth watching. You just gave Kev a semi-chub, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2/18 and 2/26 in the same thread? Can someone make a 2/26 thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, CT Rain said: There are a few big ensemble members in there. Worth watching. The trough axis spends a LONG time to our west....there are several ways this system could get invigorated between early Friday and early Saturday. While I wouldn't be going gung-go at all right now, I don't think this is one of those "we can forecast high end advisory to low end warning and pack it up for the rest of the week" type deals. There's still some good upside that may or may not materialize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 8 minutes ago, CT Rain said: There are a few big ensemble members in there. Worth watching. Yeah I dunno - hard to deny ( for me ) the modeling performance trend this cold season. Not sure why but there is a coherent tendency to dampen impulse kinematics when relaying those deeper mid range features into the skies over eastern N/A's mid latitudes. This Euro run is poking that inflamed nerve with that solution; it's been trending SE for 3-cycles then this. we'll see- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, Cold Miser said: 2/18 and 2/26 in the same thread? Can someone make a 2/26 thread? What's happening the 26th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 6 minutes ago, CT Rain said: There are a few big ensemble members in there. Worth watching. Yup, and most are left of the mean: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, Ginx snewx said: What's happening the 26th? I misread your map showing total snowfall to 2-26. It was just confusing with the maps for 2-18. Never mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, Cold Miser said: I misread your map showing total snowfall to 2-26. It was just confusing with the maps for 2-18. Never mind. They were discussing 2/22 earlier...I moved all those posts to the February pattern thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah I dunno - hard to deny ( for me ) the modeling performance trend this cold season. No sure why but there is a coherent tendency to dampen impulse kinematics when relaying those deeper mid range features into the skies over eastern N/A's mid latitudes. This year run is poking that inflamed nerve with that solution. we'll see- You start to wonder if that ****ey C**l is compressing the field... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 22 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yup, and most are left of the mean: LOL ... not to be too aggressive as a Debbie Downer but, heh... between his "...Big members," and your "Yup" ... how/what exactly defines big using this product abv?? I see ~ 18 members left of the 1008 mb closed pressure contour, and the deepest is a 1000 - Ah hell I guess. Thing is, this dips through the Arklotex ...which means it's scooping Gulf pee into the airmass that might get lifted over nascent polar air. This went from an isentropic lift scenario, to a Miller B yesterday... to now...some kind of a paltry Miller A/ANA hybrid in the operation Euro, but through all those it's had that pwat available to those solutions. You know ... 1978 a 1001 mb low passed SE of RI on the 22nd of Jan or whenever that was, and dumped 19" of snow a Logan...I guess under the right circumstances and me not being in a bad mood ...things can find a way of working out using piece of shitness mechanics. lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 9 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: 2/18 and 2/26 in the same thread? Can someone make a 2/26 thread? Start a 10 day thread...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said: Start a 10 day thread...? Was more me being a facetious a.ss because I quickly glanced at the 2-26 date on the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You start to wonder if that ****ey C**l is compressing the field... Ha... yeah ... but truth be told - everything plays its part. La Nina is not good in February anyway - lest we've forgotten that little kernel of fly shit whirling in the punch bowl. Then, the over-arching sense of planetary dooming HC crap which is noted/ .. empirically observed/science, also doesn't like winter - pretty much at any time regardless. Putting those on top of one another? It's really, ...really basic arithmetic. At least some form or another of quasi synergistic ( constructive ) relationship could and probably is emerging out of the co-mingling of their junk. You know I've mentioned it lately .... I think of this year as sandwiched between the mega -AO winter, vs those two assholes f*ing up the party ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natedizel Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 3 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said: 2:45 "But im afraid of water" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: LOL ... not to be too aggressive as a Debbie Downer but, heh... between his "...Big members," and your "Yup" ... how/what exactly defines big using this product abv?? I see ~ 18 members left of the 1008 mb closed pressure contour, and the deepest is a 1000 - I guess. Thing is, this dips through the Arklotex ...which means it's scooping Gulf pee into the airmass that might get lifted over nascent polar air. This went from an isentropic lift scenario, to a Miller B yesterday... to now...some kind of a paltry Miller A/ANA hybrid in the operation Euro, but through all those it's had that pwat available to those solutions. You know ... 1978 a 1001 mb low passed SE of RI on the 22nd of Jan or whenever that was, and dump 19" of snow a Logan...I guess under the right circumstances and me not being in a bad mood ...things can find a way of working out using piece of shitness mechanics. lol They all don't have to be 78s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 If we can pull another 5-10" out of this, I will be perfectly content to torch March. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: LOL ... not to be too aggressive as a Debbie Downer but, heh... between his "...Big members," and your "Yup" ... how/what exactly defines big using this product abv?? I see ~ 18 members left of the 1008 mb closed pressure contour, and the deepest is a 1000 - Ah hell I guess. Thing is, this dips through the Arklotex ...which means it's scooping Gulf pee into the airmass that might get lifted over nascent polar air. This went from an isentropic lift scenario, to a Miller B yesterday... to now...some kind of a paltry Miller A/ANA hybrid in the operation Euro, but through all those it's had that pwat available to those solutions. You know ... 1978 a 1001 mb low passed SE of RI on the 22nd of Jan or whenever that was, and dumped 19" of snow a Logan...I guess under the right circumstances and me not being in a bad mood ...things can find a way of working out using piece of shitness mechanics. lol Lol. Fair enough. I didn’t really look at the pressures just the placements. We’ll see if we can get this to tighten up a little over the next two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, Hoth said: If we can pull another 5-10" out of this, I will be perfectly content to torch March. EPS is 6 to 10 for ENS that's impressive 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 hour ago, dendrite said: Good run. Man what a great winter it's been up here..pushing March at the end of the euro now. If someone told me I was going to pull nearly 3ft in a storm, barely snow the rest of the winter, and my lowest temp would be warmer than DFW I'd sign up for that in a heartbeat. Do you like sauerkraut? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: EPS is 6 to 10 for ENS that's impressive for the entire run, yea. For the end of this storm its about 5-6" statewide. Probs on the EPS are 100/100/30-60% for 1/3/6" across the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Looks like OKX is going low end warning for most of CT. Probably see watches up across the region in the next hour or so. This is from 11AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: EPS is 6 to 10 for ENS that's impressive Show that map? It looked less impressive than 00z and 06z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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