Typhoon Tip Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 This storm has an upside potential ... not presently really seen in QPF distribution... As is, there's a narrow band between the 500 mb and the 300 mb jet fields that is trying to open up from NW VA to western MA ... 12z Friday. It's possible that gap widens a bit between those features - though probably not hugely so... Anyway, that band could nest a pretty strong CSI type band ...because the 500mb, 120 kt jet max is displaced E of the 300 mb ... which is cruising along at close to 200kt! There's likely to be a slot of enhanced lift along that region ... mid level fun and games. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, 78Blizzard said: Not really. Colder than 0z, which was the warm outlier. Its warm. 850mb low traverses across SSNE Night and day compared to GFS/GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 The CMC creams Hazey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Its warm. 850mb low traverses across SSNE Night and day compared to GFS/GGEM. ? Warmest point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 If the cmc got going a little faster it could have really nailed eastern ma 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 11 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Ukie is warm. It fell flat on its face on today's event, I'm still waiting for my 6" of snow it had even up until last nights run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 The CMC creams HazeyYeah I’m keeping my eye on it. This one seems to be trending in a good way for once. We’ll see. #NovaScotiaStrong 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB_Wchstr Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: If the cmc got going a little faster it could have really nailed eastern ma Maybe it will? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Long duration on the Canadian too. In Thursday morning, out Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, Ginx snewx said: ? Warmest point You're a genius. Now compare that to the GGEM/GFS. They're about 3-4C colder at the same time, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 14 minutes ago, PWMan said: Ah, the oft-modeled but seldom realized multi-stage long-duration event. Hopefully it's not just a sign that there are too many cooks in the kitchen. I just have to looks and see who's posting how great it looks to know the results up here ha, ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: You're a genius. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 7 minutes ago, Hazey said: Yeah I’m keeping my eye on it. This one seems to be trending in a good way for once. We’ll see. #NovaScotiaStrong Yea, I think you get nailed in that one....take a look at my blog. Its redeveloping as it passes by SNE. First Call: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2021/02/significant-snows-likely-thursday-night.html 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 15 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Its warm. 850mb low traverses across SSNE Night and day compared to GFS/GGEM. This is as far north as the 0°C line gets. I suppose it depends on whose ox is being gored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said: This is as far north as the 0°C line gets. I suppose it depends on whose ox is being gored. You too are a genius, congrats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Should we be concerned that the mid-level centers track up the St. Lawrence/don't really exist? Looks like we're really only relying on WAA for this one. Edit: suppose 925 wraps up over ACK maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 The UK blows to high hell....I don't care about the verification scores relative to the penguin queefs in Antartica. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Should we be concerned that the mid-level centers track up the St. Lawrence? Looks like we're really only relying on WAA for this one. Worry if you are looking for over 10".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I think you get nailed in that one....take a look at my blog. Its redeveloping as it passes by SNE. First Call: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2021/02/significant-snows-likely-thursday-night.html Feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 One thing I learned is the snow maps are often wrong. If it’s cold enough the snow will be fluffier and we will get more snow than the maps are saying, where in more marginal setups where it’s warmer then it will be a heavy wet snow with less snow than the maps are saying. This storm appears to fall into the former camp, with temps dropping to the 20s during the storm. If the models have 6-80 inches of snow with temps in the 20s, I would double that and make a forecast. I’m going to stick to my earlier forecast with 12-15 in the Boston area and more to the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 typically these things that snow for days and days don't lead to big totals 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, Whineminster said: typically these things that snow for days and days don't lead to big totals Yeah most of my long duration events like Feb 7-9, 2015 or March 4-6, 2001 or Dec 1-3, 2019 or Feb 8-11, 1994 or Jan 2-4, 1996 are paltry totals. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, George001 said: One thing I learned is the snow maps are often wrong. If it’s cold enough the snow will be fluffier and we will get more snow than the maps are saying, where in more marginal setups where it’s warmer then it will be a heavy wet snow with less snow than the maps are saying. This storm appears to fall into the former camp, with temps dropping to the 20s during the storm. Unless the snowflakes develop at the altitude of your mailbox, which they do not, then surface temps are not one of the larger determinants of ratio. Look at the temp, relative humidity and lift in the layer of the atmosphere where they develop....like 600-800mb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, Whineminster said: typically these things that snow for days and days don't lead to big totals I think models are struggling with this. The 94ish long duration overrunning however did yield some beefy 8 to 12 amounts. We should all know tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, George001 said: One thing I learned is the snow maps are often wrong. If it’s cold enough the snow will be fluffier and we will get more snow than the maps are saying, where in more marginal setups where it’s warmer then it will be a heavy wet snow with less snow than the maps are saying. This storm appears to fall into the former camp, with temps dropping to the 20s during the storm. They're always wrong. They're called clown maps for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: They're always wrong. They're called clown maps for a reason. You mean we aren’t getting 6-80” of snow? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah most of my long duration events like Feb 7-9, 2015 or March 4-6, 2001 or Dec 1-3, 2019 or Feb 8-11, 1994 or Jan 2-4, 1996 are paltry totals. I think "long duration event" has a different connotation with various people. The vast majority of long duration events at 6-12 hours of heavy snow, and the rest nuisance crap...like this one should be. The heavy hitters are more like 12-18 hours of heavy snow, but you would need faster redevelopment of the mid levels for that....not impossible, but dubious here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah most of my long duration events like Feb 7-9, 2015 or March 4-6, 2001 or Dec 1-3, 2019 or Feb 8-11, 1994 or Jan 2-4, 1996 are paltry totals. Hopefully people understand your sarcasm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 34 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Lol, it was the only model trying to stay cold with this past storm. Hopefully wrong this time too. The UKIE has that same bizarre evolution the Euro has with the late arrival of the snow...its likely both are sort of killing the WAA and transferring energy to the new coastal..its only explanation I have why they both dont have precip til like 00Z or later and all other models are 12 hours earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 yeah, long duration but still manageable.. glad to see snow back on after todays crap 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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