Ginx snewx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 On 2/18/2021 at 12:17 PM, CoastalWx said: Should be quiet until later in the aftn I think. Srn CT though will need to be watched for a sneaky surprise. Expand DC sleet lol Ft Worth 24 inches this year DC 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 On 2/18/2021 at 12:17 PM, CoastalWx said: It's been fine in the near term. You have had a rough winter though. Expand I’ve done well overall . B+. You on the other hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 On 2/18/2021 at 12:19 PM, Ginx snewx said: DC sleet lol Ft Worth 24 inches this year DC 4 Expand 24? LOL, more like 5-6" this year at DFW. But yeah, DC bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 On 2/18/2021 at 12:20 PM, Damage In Tolland said: I’ve done well overall . B+. You on the other hand. Expand Salesman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 06z Reggie went back southeast. Kind of looks like the euro. Pretty big model difference for so close to the event though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 On 2/18/2021 at 12:23 PM, ORH_wxman said: 06z Reggie went back southeast. Kind of looks like the euro. Pretty big model difference for so close to the event though. Expand That's a pretty lame solution for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 On 2/18/2021 at 12:23 PM, ORH_wxman said: 06z Reggie went back southeast. Kind of looks like the euro. Pretty big model difference for so close to the event though. Expand Same discrepancy with every system this winter it seems...two camps right up to go time almost it seems. Quite the year for modeling differences so close in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1-3”/2-4” mby seems safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 That is a bad bust in DC, but NAM FTW. It sniffed that warm tongue out like it usually does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Shouldn’t that mean the father nw solutions are likely to be more correct with the sleet already encroaching on NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 On 2/18/2021 at 12:28 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Shouldn’t that mean the father nw solutions are likely to be more correct with the sleet already encroaching on NYC? Expand There is no sleet anywhere near NYC right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 On 2/18/2021 at 12:25 PM, CoastalWx said: That is a bad bust in DC, but NAM FTW. It sniffed that warm tongue out like it usually does. Expand DC is already mixing Models once again were too far south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 I don't think the sleet that far north means much. The forcing and air flow will shunt that ENE anyways. Basically it means a more narrow all snow area near NJ and NYC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 On 2/18/2021 at 12:30 PM, MJO812 said: There is no sleet anywhere near NYC right now Expand It’s racing north on dual pol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 On 2/18/2021 at 12:37 PM, Damage In Tolland said: It’s racing north on dual pol Expand Philly keeps switching back and forth from a mix to all snow. DC and Baltimore is having a bad bust now. Mostly sleet there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 On 2/18/2021 at 5:30 AM, wxsniss said: Thanks Don I've never used PMM before. Anyone know how probability-matched mean is calculated and when to use it compared to the regular mean? Expand I don’t have the calculation, but there are some papers that suggest that it is more accurate than the mean, because it addresses ensemble member bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Places in Central NJ are already over 4 inches with this storm. They are getting the intense snow bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 On 2/18/2021 at 12:40 AM, Damage In Tolland said: Does anyone here still post on a PC? Expand I do. Most of my posting is at work when I am on the computer. When I make comments about maps that I misread it's usually from the small image on the phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathergeekMD Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 On 2/18/2021 at 12:17 PM, CoastalWx said: Should be quiet until later in the aftn I think. Srn CT though will need to be watched for a sneaky surprise. Expand I’ll pipe up if we start seeing anything interesting down here. Madison, CT, (3mi inland on the Hammonasset River. ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 On 2/18/2021 at 12:41 PM, MJO812 said: Places in Central NJ are already over 4 inches with this storm. They are getting the intense snow bands. Expand Sleet pelting the windows of the cruiser like Antifa protesters. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 On 2/18/2021 at 12:52 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: Expand ASEMATT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 On 2/18/2021 at 12:36 PM, CoastalWx said: I don't think the sleet that far north means much. The forcing and air flow will shunt that ENE anyways. Basically it means a more narrow all snow area near NJ and NYC. Expand Sweet! Ripping here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 The GFS is aggressive with this....toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 DC busting due to the warm air getting farther north than expected is a good sign for us, as the models did not have the low that far north and west. When combined with the models ramping up a bit I see no reason to change my forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 On 2/18/2021 at 2:07 PM, George001 said: DC busting due to the warm air getting farther north than expected is a good sign for us, as the models did not have the low that far north and west. When combined with the models ramping up a bit I see no reason to change my forecast. Expand You have much to learn.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 On 2/18/2021 at 2:07 PM, George001 said: DC busting due to the warm air getting farther north than expected is a good sign for us, as the models did not have the low that far north and west. When combined with the models ramping up a bit I see no reason to change my forecast. Expand Not necessarily. It's not unusual for warmer mid-level air to get further north than expected...in fact it should be expected at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 On 2/18/2021 at 2:07 PM, George001 said: DC busting due to the warm air getting farther north than expected is a good sign for us, as the models did not have the low that far north and west. When combined with the models ramping up a bit I see no reason to change my forecast. Expand DC always busts. It doesn't mean anything beyond that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 On 2/18/2021 at 2:10 PM, SnoSki14 said: Not necessarily. It's not unusual for warmer mid-level air to get further north than expected...in fact it should be expected at this point. Expand I agree it’s not unusual, but when it happens it typically means the low is farther west than expected. we have had several storms this year do that. The mid dec storm, the early feb storm, Superbowl Sunday storm, and now this one. In all 3 other storms the low ended up farther west and stronger than modeled. Now to be fair that doesn’t always mean more snow for us, in the early feb storm it actually meant less since the farther west low allowed more warm air to come in than expected, keeping totals down. The difference is we are on the northern edge of guidance this time where as then we were on the southern edge. Warm air farther north than expected in the mid Atlantic is good for us if we are on the northern edge of guidance and bad if we are on the southern edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 My final guess for mby is 2 inches. Better banding north, better banding south, intensification east of here and a lot of poor growth. If i can do a little x country today or tomorrow I'll consider it a big victory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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