February 18th ?19th?

[CoastalWx]

Should be quiet until later in the aftn I think. Srn CT though will need to be watched for a sneaky surprise.

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Should be quiet until later in the aftn I think. Srn CT though will need to be watched for a sneaky surprise.

DC sleet lol Ft Worth 24 inches this year DC 4 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's been fine in the near term. You have had a rough winter though.

I’ve done well overall . B+. 
 

You on the other hand. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

DC sleet lol Ft Worth 24 inches this year DC 4 

24? LOL, more like 5-6" this year at DFW. But yeah, DC bust.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’ve done well overall . B+. 
 

You on the other hand. 

Salesman. 

[ORH_wxman]

06z Reggie went back southeast. Kind of looks like the euro. 

Pretty big model difference for so close to the event though. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

06z Reggie went back southeast. Kind of looks like the euro. 

Pretty big model difference for so close to the event though. 

That's a pretty lame solution for many.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

06z Reggie went back southeast. Kind of looks like the euro. 

Pretty big model difference for so close to the event though. 

Same discrepancy with every system this winter it seems...two camps right up to go time almost it seems. Quite the year for modeling differences so close in. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

1-3”/2-4” mby seems safe. 

[CoastalWx]

That is a bad bust in DC, but NAM FTW. It sniffed that warm tongue out like it usually does. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Shouldn’t that mean the father nw solutions are likely to be more correct with the sleet already encroaching on NYC?

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Shouldn’t that mean the father nw solutions are likely to be more correct with the sleet already encroaching on NYC?

There is no sleet anywhere near NYC right now

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That is a bad bust in DC, but NAM FTW. It sniffed that warm tongue out like it usually does. 

DC is already mixing

Models once again were too far south

[CoastalWx]

I don't think the sleet that far north means much. The forcing and air flow will shunt that ENE anyways. Basically it means a more narrow all snow area near NJ and NYC.

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

There is no sleet anywhere near NYC right now

It’s racing north on dual pol

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s racing north on dual pol

Philly keeps switching back and forth from a mix to all snow. DC and Baltimore is having a bad bust now. Mostly sleet there.

[donsutherland1]

7 hours ago, wxsniss said:

Thanks Don

I've never used PMM before. Anyone know how probability-matched mean is calculated and when to use it compared to the regular mean?

I don’t have the calculation, but there are some papers that suggest that it is more accurate than the mean, because it addresses ensemble member bias.

[MJO812]

Places in Central NJ are already over 4 inches with this storm. They are getting the intense snow bands.

[Cold Miser]

11 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Does anyone here still post on a PC?

I do.
Most of my posting is at work when I am on the computer.

 

When I make comments about maps that I misread it's usually from the small image on the phone.

[WeathergeekMD]

21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Should be quiet until later in the aftn I think. Srn CT though will need to be watched for a sneaky surprise.

I’ll pipe up if we start seeing anything interesting down here.

Madison, CT,  (3mi inland on the Hammonasset River. )

[Baroclinic Zone]

 

[CoastalWx]

13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Places in Central NJ are already over 4 inches with this storm. They are getting the intense snow bands.

Sleet pelting the windows of the cruiser like Antifa protesters. 

[butterfish55]

4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

 

ASEMATT

[Allsnow]

29 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I don't think the sleet that far north means much. The forcing and air flow will shunt that ENE anyways. Basically it means a more narrow all snow area near NJ and NYC.

Sweet! Ripping here. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

The GFS is aggressive with this....toss.

[George001]

DC busting due to the warm air getting farther north than expected is a good sign for us, as the models did not have the low that far north and west. When combined with the models ramping up a bit I see no reason to change my forecast.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, George001 said:

DC busting due to the warm air getting farther north than expected is a good sign for us, as the models did not have the low that far north and west. When combined with the models ramping up a bit I see no reason to change my forecast.

You have much to learn....

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, George001 said:

DC busting due to the warm air getting farther north than expected is a good sign for us, as the models did not have the low that far north and west. When combined with the models ramping up a bit I see no reason to change my forecast.

Not necessarily. It's not unusual for warmer mid-level air to get further north than expected...in fact it should be expected at this point.

[PhineasC]

10 minutes ago, George001 said:

DC busting due to the warm air getting farther north than expected is a good sign for us, as the models did not have the low that far north and west. When combined with the models ramping up a bit I see no reason to change my forecast.

DC always busts. It doesn't mean anything beyond that.

[George001]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Not necessarily. It's not unusual for warmer mid-level air to get further north than expected...in fact it should be expected at this point.

I agree it’s not unusual, but when it happens it typically means the low is farther west than expected. we have had several storms this year do that. The mid dec storm, the early feb storm, Superbowl Sunday storm, and now this one. In all 3 other storms the low ended up farther west and stronger than modeled. Now to be fair that doesn’t always mean more snow for us, in the early feb storm it actually meant less since the farther west low allowed more warm air to come in than expected, keeping totals down. The difference is we are on the northern edge of guidance this time where as then we were on the southern edge. Warm air farther north than expected in the mid Atlantic is good for us if we are on the northern edge of guidance and bad if we are on the southern edge.