Bostonseminole Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 16 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: It’s been okay here.......nothing special yeah, at least I had low expectations after last year, so pretty happy so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Dude can’t handle kids in the house cooped up so takes his anger out here lol If we all could visit breweries and drink beer and eat BBQ every day. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 44 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: How long did it take you get muted on the other forum? I need a plausible over/under... I'm going with longer then it will be here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Final third. Yeah, next two months of the 6 months of possible winter. Definitely longer up here, we usually have 6 full months of possible snow events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, George001 said: I’m not expecting a blizzard, more sustained mod snow for 30 hours or so. However the latest run of the navy was more south though so I have to admit that is a red flag. I’m still waiting to see if it was just an off run or a trend before I get too concerned though, that is a fair point though about the navy not looking great. As a forecaster I want to try to be more accurate and avoid those crazy 3-4 feet snow calls that amount to nothing, so even if the models aren’t showing what I want to see I’m not just going to discount them. Blending the navy euro and Canadian still looks good for my idea of a 16-20 jackpot with most areas getting 12-15 when taking ratios into account so I’m going to stick with it, but I would like to see the navy come back north next run. I see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: At the end of the season?! It’s Feb 17th not Napril. He used to jump all over people for rushing spring at work. Welcome to backdoor season "this is what you all wanted", not sure what's happened to him recently. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: If we all could visit breweries and drink beer and eat BBQ every day. You could.. you live in a great area for it. Yiu choose not to. That’s on you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Please do not post on this storm at all since you don’t care. No Obs , no snow amounts..nothing. Ok? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 The Navy must've contracted George to keep running the NOGAPS out of his mom's basement. He must be looking at different output than we are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, wx2fish said: He used to jump all over people for rushing spring at work. Welcome to backdoor season "this is what you all wanted", not sure what's happened to him recently. I just want the nice wx. Maybe I'll feel different next year when this BS virus is done. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, wx2fish said: He used to jump all over people for rushing spring at work. Welcome to backdoor season "this is what you all wanted", not sure what's happened to him recently. Yeah with all the Napril talk we kind of forget how much Napril usually blows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's getting near the end. A few weeks left realistically and March already starts mild on guidance. Yeah we have about 4-6 weeks left but it can snow quite a bit in 4-6 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, DomNH said: Yeah with all the Napril talk we kind of forget how much Napril usually blows. I think spring will be nice this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 21 minutes ago, dendrite said: Yeah I wasn't kidding when I said I've enjoyed this winter. I got my big dog, torched it away in a week, avoided big cold, and other than yesterday we've pretty much avoided the glop events. Winter is long here and it's nice to have one that feels a little shorter. Hopefully we can start warming it up a bit in March. Maybe my attitude would be different if i sat under a death band that dropped 30"+ on me, But we've been hosed pretty good this year, Inline to match 2010 actually. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 12 minutes ago, George001 said: I’m not expecting a blizzard, more sustained mod snow for 30 hours or so. However the latest run of the navy was more south though so I have to admit that is a red flag. I’m still waiting to see if it was just an off run or a trend before I get too concerned though, that is a fair point though about the navy not looking great. As a forecaster I want to try to be more accurate and avoid those crazy 3-4 feet snow calls that amount to nothing, so even if the models aren’t showing what I want to see I’m not just going to discount them. Blending the navy euro and Canadian still looks good for my idea of a 16-20 jackpot with most areas getting 12-15 when taking ratios into account so I’m going to stick with it, but I would like to see the navy come back north next run. The more important question How much for Philly? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, wx2fish said: He used to jump all over people for rushing spring at work. Welcome to backdoor season "this is what you all wanted", not sure what's happened to him recently. I see right thru him. He hates the kids always inside and him having to watch them . He longs for the days when he can just send them outside all day and he knows how far away that is. So he just comes on here and acts like grumpy 85 year old . 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Not sure what the angst is for southern peeps. This was either stronger but quick flip or weaker but all snow. I mean...I’ll take the all snow even if it’s 3-6 over 24hr duration. Society has regressed like in that late 90s early 00s movie where they travel to Costco for a time machine 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I mean, even if I were getting what the s coast is, then I'd be fine with it....but 3"+ over 48 hours? 'Cmon lol I'm on the south coast, and I wish I was confident I was getting what the south coast is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 23 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: That's it.. I am taking that to the bank. Going with another 8 or 9 inches or so. Thank you. Probably not far from the truth 8 seems doable 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Maybe my attitude would be different if i sat under a death band that dropped 30"+ on me, But we've been hosed pretty good this year, Inline to match 2010 actually. I'm about on track with 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: I see right thru him. He hates the kids always inside and him having to watch them . He longs for the days when he can just send them outside all day and he knows how far away that is. So he just comes on here and acts like grumpy 85 year old . Hell I feel cooped up inside all day every day, then go outside after work and at best it's cold with dim sun every day. Would be much more tolerable with travel and normal activities. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: I see right thru him. He hates the kids always inside and him having to watch them . He longs for the days when he can just send them outside all day and he knows how far away that is. So he just comes on here and acts like grumpy 85 year old . Too many people tired of Covid, and f.ucking zoom calls. The more snow, the more agitated they become. Some want to wish it away, but Scott? You know that Scott is on his game with forecasting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 14 minutes ago, JC-CT said: So obviously fronto is well below the dgz. What are the blue/grey shaded areas and what are we looking for with respect to theta-e? nevermind the first part I see the omega legend on the right Yeah that's the omega. Don't worry too much about the theta-e...although you can see which isentrope the fronto slope and lift runs along. Looks like about 300-310K there. Air prefers to move toward areas with similar density so when you get that WAA and sloped ascent (warm air overrunning the cold) the lift tends to slope along a specific isentrope (line of constant potential temp). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Cold Miser said: Too many people tired of Covid, and f.ucking zoom calls. The more snow, the more agitated they become. Some want to wish it away, but Scott? You know that Scott is on his game with forecasting. Anger can do some bad things. We’re seeing it here and you hate to see it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I know some where advocating for better ratios than the mid atlantic as early as yesterday, and I was a bit confused as to why. Thanks for clarifying. Bufkit , just the start 210218/1300Z 25 06004KT 22.4F SNOW 11:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012 12:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02 100| 0| 0 210218/1400Z 26 07004KT 22.4F SNOW 10:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.030 11:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.05 100| 0| 0 210218/1500Z 27 07005KT 22.5F SNOW 15:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.033 12:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09 100| 0| 0 210218/1600Z 28 06004KT 22.5F SNOW 16:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.035 13:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12 100| 0| 0 210218/1700Z 29 06005KT 23.1F SNOW 12:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.042 13:1| 2.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.16 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Bufkit , just the start 210218/1300Z 25 06004KT 22.4F SNOW 11:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012 12:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02 100| 0| 0 210218/1400Z 26 07004KT 22.4F SNOW 10:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.030 11:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.05 100| 0| 0 210218/1500Z 27 07005KT 22.5F SNOW 15:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.033 12:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09 100| 0| 0 210218/1600Z 28 06004KT 22.5F SNOW 16:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.035 13:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12 100| 0| 0 210218/1700Z 29 06005KT 23.1F SNOW 12:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.042 13:1| 2.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.16 Where's that? a little over a tenth of QPF averaging 12:1. Meh. That may be generous too although I'm sure there will be bursts that tickle up closer to the DGZ. Is that Cobb method? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, dendrite said: Where's that? a little over a tenth of QPF averaging 12:1. Meh. That may be generous too although I'm sure there will be bursts that tickle up closer to the DGZ. Is that Cobb method? Yes you posted the later frames when the upper levels warm. Final numbers are 10 to 1 .Examples IJD .59 gives 6.4 HVN .79 gives 8.2. Obviously this changes depending on lift 700 frontogenisis. Banding signal lies across LI sound. North of that could get crushed in a 3 hr period with high ratio fluff due to lift, column temp and interaction with the DGZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Anger can do some bad things. We’re seeing it here and you hate to see it LOL, they aren't even here today. No anger, but look at the guidance for this. It's a mess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 What can you do in a non covid winter that you can't in a covid winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Yes you posted the later frames when the upper levels warm. Final numbers are 10 to 1 .Examples IJD .59 gives 6.4 HVN .79 gives 8.2. Obviously this changes depending on lift 700 frontogenisis. Banding signal lies across LI sound. North of that could get crushed in a 3 hr period with high ratio fluff due to lift, column temp and interaction with the DGZ. I'm just using the 3k nam for the example. There's a little mid level lift in the DGZ very early on but it doesn't look like a huge deal. The better growth starts to redevelop up my way. These things often change as you get closer in though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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