USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 I am not sold on this prolonged like event the 00z runs that have come in so far are showing, I will be sold when it is snowing outside on Thursday and my temp is below 29F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 17, 2021 Author Share Posted February 17, 2021 Yeah Difference in synoptics ...just looks the same at the surface but not a good comparison Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Hopefully, the models are still transitioning their focus on the follow-up wave, which trends stronger and farther west. Otherwise, it's congrats ENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Congrats James on the GGEM. There's George's 15", too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Mid-levels say we still grab 2-4" back in NW MA. I'll take. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Congrats James Congrats fishes in the Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 34 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 500mb height/vorticity map is a good crude one....but if we want to get a little more weenie-ish I’ll look at 700/850 levels for signs of warm fronts. But typically the H5 level is good for looking where the best upper level support is. There’s a disconnect in this system...the WAA burst is running way ahead of the upper level stuff, and that can be risky for driving the baroclinic zone too far seaward, but it seems like it hangs back enough on a lot of these runs to allow the upper air to reinvigorate the system before it slides east. This is the part I’m most enthusiastic about trending better. Down where you are, maybe the thump can be good, but it’s sort of shearing out as it goes into SNE. Maybe that changes on future runs....ideally we’d get both. Yeah. The best runs for eSNE --- last night's 0z CMC and tonights 0z RGEM + CMC --- do the same: vorticity is close enough / the system is slow enough that it reinvigorates it, we actually have closing mid-level lows, and eSNE gets a bit of a CCB. The models that have weak sauce have this system running way ahead of the best shortwave energy further southwest, and most of our snowfall is from the weak WAA. Another way to see this is timing: if the surface system arrives later, it has better chance to be impacted by vorticity behind it. If the surface system arrives faster, it fizzles out seaward / we get a smeared multi-weak-low system. Compare at 6z Sat CMC/RGEM (eSNE is getting a CCB) vs. NAM/GFS (system is long gone). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, DavisStraight said: Congrats fishes in the Atlantic Careful....mid level banding is usually near the modeled QPF gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Spring, please. J thought you like most were TISH weenies? I want Snow Everyday of my Life Forever. I don’t care if I Ever see 32*F Again. I don’t get it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, TheSnowman said: J thought you like most were TISH weenies? I want Snow Everyday of my Life Forever. I don’t care if I Ever see 32*F Again. I don’t get it. Maybe its bc I'm getting older, but I'm done with 3" over 24 hours at this point of the season...I'd rather warmth. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 CMC is 12+ SE of Boston. I think if you’re looking for big snows.... a CMC type evolution is what you want Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Ukie was south and weaker, yet it still has low end warning qpf for EMA and most of CT and RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Careful....mid level banding is usually near the modeled QPF gradient. What's your thinking Ray? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: What's your thinking Ray? I had a general 5-10". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I had a general 5-10". yeah and 1-3" turning to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 I don't get why the WSW starts at 7am Thursday and goes thru 7pm Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: I don't get why the WSW starts at 7am Thursday and goes thru 7pm Friday. Bc they don't know where the focus will be yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 The GFS and other models may be underestimating the extent of the snowfall for this system, based on reports out of Texas. Amarillo, for example, was shown to get about 3" and now they expect around 9". A live shot on TWC showed it snowing to beat the band there now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 ANY SNOW IS GOOD SNOW! Focus lately (for quite awhile hasn't been the weather) more toward my personal health. Setback after setback. Now diagnosed with a pulmonary embolism. It is what it is... Just look at the coverage of snow-covered CONUS. 70%+ WOW. Wishing is for all 12+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 36 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: CMC is 12+ SE of Boston. I think if you’re looking for big snows.... a CMC type evolution is what you want Yeah I commented earlier... CMC and RGEM both are slower with arrival of the surface low. I suspect that allows the surface low to be reinvigorated by the lagging shortwave energy more. They both have better closing of midlevels, and eSNE actually gets a bit of a CCB. I think there's still room for improvement in the WAA portion too. But the 10"+ amounts will need to see the CCB portion like the Canadians do it. CMC was ahead of all guidance for Tuesday's turd. Let's hope for whatever reasons the Canadians do better than other guidance in this fast flow regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 0z GEFS are south of 18z trend continues meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Euro is slow tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 7 minutes ago, weathafella said: Euro is slow tonight Molasses... apparently on all vendors Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 This is a good Euro run... a tick towards the CMC. The WAA portion is garbage, but the CCB portion is better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 GEM is like 8-10" on the NARCAN....JP near KTAN to Attelboro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Nice step by the euro. Better trends at 0z tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 This will be the third Winter Storm Watch bust for the Berks area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: Nice step by the euro. Better trends at 0z tonight Yea, verbatim it blows, but I can see the subtle trend down south on the clown....not examining mid levels at this hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: GEM is like 8-10" on the NARCAN....JP near KTAN to Attelboro. Like 10-14" southeast MA on Pivotal, and that's an improvement over 12z GEM. In any case, I think there's room to trend better. Interesting how this evolved from predominantly a WAA thump yesterday, and now those dynamics look weak and instead we're hoping for CCB of a reinvigorated low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Euro further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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