Hoth Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Do we fire the Euro into the sun with Ukie, or is that off the table because of Brexit? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Good run. Man what a great winter it's been up here..pushing March at the end of the euro now. If someone told me I was going to pull nearly 3ft in a storm, barely snow the rest of the winter, and my lowest temp would be warmer than DFW I'd sign up for that in a heartbeat. 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: No, bc I'm done with salt everywhere for .2"/hr rates, at this point in the season. yeah, that's cool, just did not know if it would screw things up downstream. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Colder look though. Good to be se and weak for now until the nw trends happen...assuming southern vorts which typically do...happen this time. Yeah I don't hate where it is right now. It's pretty close to a much better system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I don't hate where it is right now. It's pretty close to a much better system. The EPS is probably similar to last suite. I hate that run, not the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Region wide 3-6"....time for spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Let em melt. The system today didn’t just trend 390 miles north the last 48 hours right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: The EPS is probably similar to last suite. I hate that run, not the event. I was a little surprised how dry it was...it didn't look that bad aloft. It wasn't 2/1/21 either, but there's still some upside to this one, even if somewhat limited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB_Wchstr Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: God, these models suck. They really are getting worse. I hope someone is using their salary to look into this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: I was a little surprised how dry it was...it didn't look that bad aloft. It wasn't 2/1/21 either, but there's still some upside to this one, even if somewhat limited. I think the ceiling is that 5-10" range I used. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, Hoth said: Do we fire the Euro into the sun with Ukie, or is that off the table because of Brexit? Fire all the models until within 24 hours......some here latch onto models solutions 5-7 days out only to wind up disappointed more often than not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Gotta need ML help on this one to get to those numbers. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: @MJO812 Should pop in to tell us how great it is. Nope Sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think the ceiling is that 5-10" range I used. If things worked out I could see some 10-14 type amounts....but that would likely require more of a capture at the end. Those amounts are unlikely, but still possible in this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I don't hate where it is right now. It's pretty close to a much better system. Yea. I think this can tick stronger for eastern areas. This is the type of event where TBlizz and crew complain about weak sauce but then the day before the storm the sauce comes in hot and spicy... so they drop their pants, bend over, and take 12 inches. 1 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 This is one of the drier runs yet when using kuchera it still gives 6-8 inches of snow. As long as it doesn’t trend that’s a good sign that the euro is still giving us 6-8 inches during a weaker run. It needs some work, but it’s not far from something much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: If things worked out I could see some 10-14 type amounts....but that would likely require more of a capture at the end. Those amounts are unlikely, but still possible in this setup. I don't see it....that would take a pretty dramatic trend in the mid levels. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Bitching up north means we take down here 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, George001 said: This is one of the drier runs yet when using kuchera it still gives 6-8 inches of snow. As long as it doesn’t trend that’s a good sign that the euro is still giving us 6-8 inches during a weaker run. It needs some work, but it’s not far from something much better. George, the euro isn’t giving that much snow. The vendor using whatever off label formula they choose to is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, weathafella said: George, the euro isn’t giving that much snow. The vendor using whatever off label formula they choose to is. Sign me up for that Euro run. Like Will said it will get better. QPF queens. Look at the mids. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: Bitching up north means we take down here Famous last words... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Sign me up for that Euro run. Like Will said it will get better. QPF queens. Look at the mids. Someone said the mids looked bad and were weak and need to improve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 5 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: Bitching up north means we take down here How did that work out for you today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Sign me up for that Euro run. Like Will said it will get better. QPF queens. Look at the mids. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, weathafella said: George, the euro isn’t giving that much snow. The vendor using whatever off label formula they choose to is. Fair point, but in a setup like this with cold upper levels as well as surface, and strong jet dynamics, I would lean towards even those kuchera maps being underdone like they were during the Superbowl storm. There is tons of jet energy with this system, which leads me to believe that the models are underestimating the precip from the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Famous last words... I don't see this ripping northward with the upper air pattern. If anything I see this trending to a lesser impact event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Someone said the mids looked bad and were weak and need to improve Yes, I said that if you're looking for the 10-14" ceiling that Will referenced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I don't see this ripping northward with the upper air pattern. If anything I see this trending to a lesser impact event. I wasn't implying its going to rip 400mi nw like the last one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yes, I said that if you're looking for the 10-14" ceiling that Will referenced. Not you. Someone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Pretty weak sauce from Euro...it's cold but not all that prolific. It tries to get going late, but not quite enough. I do like how that vorticity is a little more concentrated at 84h....that's what could help pop this thing before it pulls off to the east. Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Not you. Someone You mean this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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