Typhoon Tip Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 Whomever mentioned the 'two pulsed' idea, that is correct. The thread opener ... I mentioned that the models et al were flaming a lead acceleration of the mid level wind field along the W - NW arc of the vestigial SE/West Atl ridging... What is fascinating about that is that among the various guidance, it's not really associated with a S/W approach / exit jet mechanics nosing in.. It's actually L/W compression of the heights that is triggering that acceleration... One that is also prevalent in these recent NAM guidance; but as that acceleration first encounters the nascent polar-arctic air mass about to be put into place from the interior MA up through New England regions, the NAM is then producing a pretty potent isentropicl lifting band betrayed by that navy blue with nested magenta pixels in there.... That wanes off as that accelerating jet field pass by - lull ensues. Then...the NAM uses the immediately heeled trough to then generate a paltry coastal ...but perhaps enough in the latter mechanics to still swath a moderate snow/CCB genesis as noted... Is all that right? Not sure... The numerical/ Globals appear to make distinctions between those two 'events' more seamless ...like the 00z GFS ...which ended up with a 24 hour event, managing somehow to pull that off in what quite possibly could be the fastest possible flow there can be on the planet - man that's getting lucky ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 6 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Icon is a torch south Something wrong with that algorithm 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 11 hours ago, George001 said: The navy is a great model, it’s extremely underrated in my opinion. My biggest forecast busts are when I ignore the navy because it’s not showing what I want. My best forecasts come when I blend the navy euro and Canadian. The navy model sucks and should never be mentioned again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Something wrong with that algorithm No ZR/IP there. So I assume that rain precip has a lot of ice in the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 9 minutes ago, dendrite said: No ZR/IP there. So I assume that rain precip has a lot of ice in the interior. Yeah I've been operating under that same assumption with this ICON thing for awhile now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, dendrite said: No ZR/IP there. So I assume that rain precip has a lot of ice in the interior. They don't have an ice algorithm so it shows snow or rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 old GFS looks like a general 6-10.. looking good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 GFS is a widespread 4-8” event for all of SNE, even on the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: GFS is a widespread 4-8” event for all of SNE, even on the Cape. 8 to 10 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 9 minutes ago, dryslot said: They don't have an ice algorithm so it shows snow or rain. Its ice and sleet according to wxmodels 850s cooked but cold down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 I’d hit the gfs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Its ice and sleet according to wxmodels 850s cooked but cold down TT does not show it though and not that it matters anyways, Its like the Ukie, Inconsistent, Besides if it shows snow here, Its wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I’d hit the gfs Yes sir 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I’d hit the gfs I'd hit it like Otis Day at the Dexter Lake Club. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 Mm.. this event I think has potential to modulate in the models more so than the usual amount for monitoring/ .. deterministic efforts at less than D4 I'm noticing that there is a 'staggered' relaying of jet mechanics ... a whopping large amount too, that is ripping over southern California ... while the L/W axis is amplifying toward west TX over the next 48 or so hours. That lagged feed can morph things in short lead ...seemingly out of nowhere. If a Pacific wave is alone out there...I think the assimilation may perform with higher proficiency for limiting 'missing' crucial momentum aspects... I'm not sure that is the case when you got caboosed "punch" jet that is/a some 3000 km long tube of wind at 125 kts driving into the backside from off the Pacific grid. At 300 mb in the oper. GFS it's 150! I am wondering how the assimilation tech handles that kind of integral feed - The NAM does not have as much of this latter arriving mechanics ...but given to the flat trajectory - overall - coming off the Pacific and tracing that wind tunnel back in the runs, its still not even in the NAM grid ... I'm sure it's getting relayed into the NAM's grid by something ... I wouldn't trust the NAM ( heh, goes without saying) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Rgem has 3 lows Long duration event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB_Wchstr Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Rgem has 3 lows Long duration event Doubtful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 SGFS is so cold it’s ridiculous. 925 0C is basically 50-75 miles se of its dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: SGFS is so cold it’s ridiculous. 925 0C is basically 50-75 miles se of its dad. where is dad at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 This an learning op in why a fast flow is too much of a good thing sometimes. If it gets fast enough it'd dismantle all cyclogen kinematics down to an ANA thing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 14 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: where is dad at? On model life support. They’re pulling the plug on him soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 33 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Rgem has 3 lows Long duration event Canadian appears to have moved in that direction as well, it was originally modeled as a fast mover with a more limited ceiling just yesterday but all of a sudden new lows came out of nowhere. Instead of this being one low it’s 2-3 lows, which increases the duration and total snowfall. While this isn’t a blizzard with rapid accumulations, it appears to be 30+ hours of moderate snow which can and will produce significant snowfall. We had one storm like that in feb 2015 that led to 2 feet of snow in the Boston area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 I’d also hit the cmc.... long duration 8-12 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Ah, the oft-modeled but seldom realized multi-stage long-duration event. Hopefully it's not just a sign that there are too many cooks in the kitchen. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Ukie is warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Ukie is warm. Because Scooter launched it into the sun? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 hour ago, Bostonseminole said: old GFS looks like a general 6-10.. looking good we can always adjust down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Ukie is warm. Lol, it was the only model trying to stay cold with this past storm. Hopefully wrong this time too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Ukie is warm. Not really. Colder than 0z, which was the warm outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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