weathafella Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 On 2/15/2021 at 8:42 PM, dryslot said: Th 18z NAM fwiw is pretty far west for this next one. Expand Still though a strong thump signal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 On 2/15/2021 at 8:44 PM, weathafella said: Still though a strong thump signal Expand A colder version of Tuesday, That would be pretty icy for western areas verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 On 2/15/2021 at 8:42 PM, dryslot said: Th 18z NAM fwiw is pretty far west for this next one. Expand Sleet Week 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 NAM looks good around the Pike. Thump weakens as it pushes NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 On 2/15/2021 at 8:50 PM, PhineasC said: Sleet Week 2021 Expand Thump to sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Toss the NAM. Thermals aloft too warm. Use the Euro and Ukie thermals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Reggie is cold and all frozen. 4 to 6 and still going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 On 2/15/2021 at 8:50 PM, NorEastermass128 said: NAM looks good around the Pike. Thump weakens as it pushes NE. Expand Theme of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 On 2/15/2021 at 9:20 PM, Ginx snewx said: Reggie is cold and all frozen. 4 to 6 and still going. Expand Yup. That’s a good event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Seems like the worse tomorrow has the trended the better this has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Hi this is George from the other weather board, i also lurk here sometimes since this is a more New England centric form rather than mid Atlantic. I have been following the models and am really exited for this storm, it seems to be trending into a Miller b rather than cutting up into Ohio which should increase the ceiling of the storm. What do you guys think about the potential of this storm? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 On 2/15/2021 at 9:28 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Seems like the worse tomorrow has the trended the better this has. Expand The more tomorrow’s system wraps up, the lower the heights are behind it which helps keep the follow-up system further south and east. Obviously there are other factors like the shortwave itself for 2/18-19, but all else equal, lower heights behind tomorrow’s system will trend 2/18-19 colder. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 On 2/15/2021 at 9:39 PM, ORH_wxman said: The more tomorrow’s system wraps up, the lower the heights are behind it which helps keep the follow-up system further south and east. Obviously there are other factors like the shortwave itself for 2/18-19, but all else equal, lower heights behind tomorrow’s system will trend 2/18-19 colder. Expand 7" in Hollistton, 4" in Methuen..easy forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 On 2/15/2021 at 9:41 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: 7" in Hollistton, 4" in Methuen..easy forecast. Expand Yep. Best guess is lift weakens as it pushes NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 On 2/15/2021 at 9:37 PM, George001 said: Hi this is George from the other weather board, i also lurk here sometimes since this is a more New England centric form rather than mid Atlantic. I have been following the models and am really exited for this storm, it seems to be trending into a Miller b rather than cutting up into Ohio which should increase the ceiling of the storm. What do you guys think about the potential of this storm? Expand Certainly a much better chance at frozen. Where are you located Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Gfs follows the se trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 On 2/15/2021 at 9:39 PM, ORH_wxman said: The more tomorrow’s system wraps up, the lower the heights are behind it which helps keep the follow-up system further south and east. Obviously there are other factors like the shortwave itself for 2/18-19, but all else equal, lower heights behind tomorrow’s system will trend 2/18-19 colder. Expand Thanks, makes sense. I like the high wedged in behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 That would be a solid hit all snow up here on the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 18z GFS 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Can't be mad at that GFS run. Not a powerhouse, but expansive precip field and a fairly long duration with the transfer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 On 2/15/2021 at 9:51 PM, Ginx snewx said: Certainly a much better chance at frozen. Where are you located Expand Foxborough area, I am a strong believer in the potential of this storm due to the model shift from a low cutting to our west to a Miller B, Miller Bs are usually the type of storms that deliver massive amounts of snow to my backyard, sometimes upwards of 2 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 On 2/15/2021 at 10:05 PM, George001 said: Foxborough area, I am a strong believer in the potential of this storm due to the model shift from a low cutting to our west to a Miller B, Miller Bs are usually the type of storms that deliver massive amounts of snow to my backyard, sometimes upwards of 2 feet. Expand Well this is moving too fast for amounts like that but certainly a 8 inch plus amount can not be ruled out. I thought you said Mid Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 On 2/15/2021 at 9:41 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: 7" in Hollistton, 4" in Methuen..easy forecast. Expand On 2/15/2021 at 9:49 PM, NorEastermass128 said: Yep. Best guess is lift weakens as it pushes NE. Expand IDK about that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 On 2/15/2021 at 10:09 PM, Ginx snewx said: Well this is moving too fast for amounts like that but certainly a 8 inch plus amount can not be ruled out. I thought you said Mid Atlantic Expand No I lurk here since it’s more New England centric where as the other board is mid Atlantic, so often I am rooting for different trends on the models than they are. For example they don’t like miller bs very much where as if I see a Miller b on the models I get extremely excited and start thinking about my deck being buried underneath so much snow that I can’t see it anymore, with snow depths up to my waist. Though for this storm I agree 2 feet is probably not going to happen but if things break right maybe 12-18 inches? Superbowl Sunday was a nice storm for me, very fast mover and the models had 3-6/4-8 type amounts but a band of extremely heavy snow sat on my house for several hours which led to me getting around a foot instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 On 2/15/2021 at 10:17 PM, George001 said: No I lurk here since it’s more New England centric where as the other board is mid Atlantic, so often I am rooting for different trends on the models than they are. For example they don’t like miller bs very much where as if I see a Miller b on the models I get extremely excited and start thinking about my deck being buried underneath so much snow that I can’t see it anymore, with snow depths up to my waist. Though for this storm I agree 2 feet is probably not going to happen but if things break right maybe 12-18 inches? Superbowl Sunday was a nice storm for me, very fast mover and the models had 3-6/4-8 type amounts but a band of extremely heavy snow sat on my house for several hours which led to me getting around a foot instead. Expand Exactly, and I can attest to that here as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 18z new GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 First Call likely tmw, unless this one falls through lol https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2021/02/significant-forecast-changes-shift.html 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 This would be a nice area wide hit for sure. Snowfall for this event only. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Might be a bit longer of a storm too. Maybe 18 hrs? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 4-7” for a bunch of folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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