6Z Guidance Discussion 12/23/2010

[Quincy]

you're wrong

GFS was always OTS and now that its coming in closer to the EURO, you say the EURO solution is LESS LIKELY???

bad analysis sir!

I would caution you to make that assertion about our fellow Meteorologist.

The trend is something to keep a closer eye on and although I can't say that I completely agree with the statement that previous EURO solutions are entirely unlikely, but the two models do appear to be slowly converging on a solution.

[varicweather]

Looking at the latest surface map, cold front draped across GOM well South of the coast entering into

central FLA. as large surface high pressure dominates center of the country. Wondering if eventual surface

low pressure will form further South than progged closer to baroclinic zone.

http://weather.unisys.com/index.html

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

I would caution you to make that assertion about our fellow Meteorologist.

The trend is something to keep a closer eye on and although I can't say that I completely agree with the fact that previous EURO solutions are entirely unlikely, but the two models do appear to be slowly converging on a solution.

WHY? if hes wrong, hes wrong......theres not attack here whatsoever.

[winterymix]

Yeah the southern/early phase by the Euro seems to becoming less and less likely. I think the chances are increasing in SNE for something decent but decreasing in parts of the MA.

Yeah. The 0Z Euro is somewhat disappointing. My hunch is that 500 mb vorticity in both the northern

and the southern streams seems less energetic than modeled yesterday.

It seems that the eventual trough in the east is too broad at the bottom, that GOM and Atlantic moisture

is less generous than previously modeled and that optimal phase timing is an increasing long shot.

Good news for virga lovers.

[Swiscaster]

I think we may be at the point that in these patterns, modeling is impossible to trust outside of 72 hours.

Well, to "trust" one particular model "hook, line, and sinker" outside that time frame would be unwise, but there is still value in looking at these long range model runs to get an idea of the evolution. Assuming the final solution is similar to what we are seeing in the models now, the GFS/GGEM/ECMWF have done a decent job of depicting the situation when you take them all into account, as well as their biases. To expect the models to nail down fine details from 4+ days out (which I realize have huge implications with sensible weather for a lot of people) is asking a lot. But when you think about it, what is the difference between knowing if it is going to snow 7 days from now, 5 days from now, or 3 days from now? I think as long as we can get a good 48-hour lead time on significant weather, people can make the proper arrangements.

[psuhoffman]

you're wrong

GFS was always OTS and now that its coming in closer to the EURO, you say the EURO solution is LESS LIKELY???

bad analysis sir!

the euro shifted east 200 miles last night so both models are converging on a middle solution. This is often the case but for this instance we needed the euro solution, not a compromise between the euro and GFS as that eliminates anyone except NJ and new england from getting epic snows.