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6Z Guidance Discussion 12/23/2010


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6z GFS definitely west in time for SNE... big hit BOS/PVD.

Phases later than Euro... but looks good aloft could come west more.

Certainly a definite possibility...just get phasing to occur just a tad sooner...and not much sooner...also look at where the low is compared to where the baroclinic zone is...I would have that low just a bit west of where it's modeled but b/c of the little late phase that might be preventing the slight west shift a bit more.

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WOW...looking beautiful at 90 HR...much further south and west than the 0z run...not as progressive. A bit deeper with the trough as well and a bit further west with the axis, also a much better closed H5 low too, not as elongated and back over WV/NC.

This is starting to look good even on the GFS lol-- the ensembles of 0z were further west and indicated this trend. I think this continues for the 12z runs also.

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This is starting to look good even on the GFS lol-- the ensembles of 0z were further west and indicated this trend. I think this continues for the 12z runs also.

Certainly wouldn't surprise me...still would like to start seeing some signs of a bit earlier phase to ensure this possibility. Definitely interested in what the 6z ensembles show.

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Certainly wouldn't surprise me...still would like to start seeing some signs of a bit earlier phase to ensure this possibility. Definitely interested in what the 6z ensembles show.

Whatever that dark blue contour is on the qpf charts, its reaching our area on the qpf map just posted-- what is that, 0.5"?

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last 3 runs of OP GFS are virtually the same with location of low of MA coast.. Think Euro will stay about where it was last night. Nam will be out too lunch until 0z tonight.. What a difference 50 miles will make with this storm. Just like watching the Ravens, I'll be biting my nails until the very end

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ehh I think you need to qualify that by latitude, the ensembles are much improved in the northeast, but actually worse in the mid atlantic. They agree the phase happens late so while many now give New England snow, only 1 of 12 give DC anything more then flurries.

Theyre in the new england post xmas thread.... I posted an analysis for NYC and there's a marked improvement over the last set of ensembles. Hopefully there is for your region also.

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Theyre in the new england post xmas thread.... I posted an analysis for NYC and there's a marked improvement over the last set of ensembles. Hopefully there is for your region also.

Unfortunately they are worse then 0z were for the DC area. The phase happens 6 hours later, once it happens the low really cranks so its better for NYC and Boston. its worse for DC and Baltimore as the low gets further east before turning north. I had no time to do a full analysis but only 1 member gives DC accumulating snow, and even that member its probably only a few inches. The rest are flurries at best.

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Unfortunately they are worse then 0z were for the DC area. The phase happens 6 hours later, once it happens the low really cranks so its better for NYC and Boston. its worse for DC and Baltimore as the low gets further east before turning north. I had no time to do a full analysis but only 1 member gives DC accumulating snow, and even that member its probably only a few inches. The rest are flurries at best.

Yeah the southern/early phase by the Euro seems to becoming less and less likely. I think the chances are increasing in SNE for something decent but decreasing in parts of the MA.

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6z ensemble mean seems to be in pretty good agreement with the op. A few members(4?) give a signficant snowstorm to the eastern half of jersey and a mod event to the west, couple other members are only grazing the eastern areas with light-moderate accum, a couple others are complete misses. The mean precip is spot on with the op run. SLP mean maybe slightly east as you would expec.

I believe the Euro and gfs are slowly trending towards agreement with eachother. Hopefully that agreement is leaned more towards the euro side of things. The mid-Atlc/DC area, im not really sure what to make of things right now except that they arent trending too well for you guys at the moment. Plenty of time for things to go both ways and I'm still banking on the over all consistency of the euro runs for at least the nyc/NE area.

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6z ensemble mean seems to be in pretty good agreement with the op. A few members(4?) give a signficant snowstorm to the eastern half of jersey and a mod event to the west, couple other members are only grazing the eastern areas with light-moderate accum, a couple others are complete misses. The mean precip is spot on with the op run. SLP mean maybe slightly east as you would expec.

I believe the Euro and gfs are slowly trending towards agreement with eachother. Hopefully that agreement is leaned more towards the euro side of things. The mid-Atlc/DC area, im not really sure what to make of things right now except that they arent trending too well for you guys at the moment. Plenty of time for things to go both ways and I'm still banking on the over all consistency of the euro runs for at least the nyc/NE area.

3 of the ensemble members had over 1 inch qpf (up from 2 from the last set of ensembles) and 6 had over 0.5 inch qpf (up from 4 from the last set)..... means avg is also up from approx 0.35 to 0.50 inch

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Unfortunately they are worse then 0z were for the DC area. The phase happens 6 hours later, once it happens the low really cranks so its better for NYC and Boston. its worse for DC and Baltimore as the low gets further east before turning north. I had no time to do a full analysis but only 1 member gives DC accumulating snow, and even that member its probably only a few inches. The rest are flurries at best.

meh, the DGEX gives nothing to NE and an inch, at best, in the MA

in 12 hours I'm seriously wondering if this weekend is not just a replay of last for everyone

so be it if it is, its still Christmas

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meh, the DGEX gives nothing to NE and an inch, at best, in the MA

in 12 hours I'm seriously wondering if this weekend is not just a replay of last for everyone

so be it if it is, its still Christmas

I'm not sure its a cardinal sin to have little faith in the DGEX, I used that thing regularly in the Plains because it used to show insane deviations from most of the models and it never verified.

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I'm not sure its a cardinal sin to have little faith in the DGEX, I used that thing regularly in the Plains because it used to show insane deviations from most of the models and it never verified.

well, I bring it up only because it was consistent showing last week's storm ots

last year, for whatever reason, it did well

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Yeah the southern/early phase by the Euro seems to becoming less and less likely. I think the chances are increasing in SNE for something decent but decreasing in parts of the MA.

you're wrong

GFS was always OTS and now that its coming in closer to the EURO, you say the EURO solution is LESS LIKELY???

bad analysis sir!

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you're wrong

GFS was always OTS and now that its coming in closer to the EURO, you say the EURO solution is LESS LIKELY???

bad analysis sir!

I think he's getting at the fact the odds this thing can left hook or turn due north in time to hit DC is decreasing....this storm as of now takes an odd track in that it goes NE and then more N or NNE up the coast, so it takes a trajectory that could hit NJ northward but not DC.

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