jcwxguy Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 just misses at hour 90, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 WOW...looking beautiful at 90 HR...much further south and west than the 0z run...not as progressive. A bit deeper with the trough as well and a bit further west with the axis, also a much better closed H5 low too, not as elongated and back over WV/NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 6z GFS definitely west in time for SNE... big hit BOS/PVD. Phases later than Euro... but looks good aloft could come west more. Certainly a definite possibility...just get phasing to occur just a tad sooner...and not much sooner...also look at where the low is compared to where the baroclinic zone is...I would have that low just a bit west of where it's modeled but b/c of the little late phase that might be preventing the slight west shift a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 We need the 12z runs to come in with an earlier phase with a stronger s/w, definitely possible because some data was missing from the center of the s/w at 0z. But I do like what 6z is showing, hopefully it will be able to set the stage for this afternoon's runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 great hit for ne at 102, down to 966mb and down to 960 at 108 as it moves north north east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Reminiscent to 12/26/04. Nice hit for coastal VA up to New England. Nice 12 to 15 hour thump for Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 WOW...looking beautiful at 90 HR...much further south and west than the 0z run...not as progressive. A bit deeper with the trough as well and a bit further west with the axis, also a much better closed H5 low too, not as elongated and back over WV/NC. This is starting to look good even on the GFS lol-- the ensembles of 0z were further west and indicated this trend. I think this continues for the 12z runs also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 This is starting to look good even on the GFS lol-- the ensembles of 0z were further west and indicated this trend. I think this continues for the 12z runs also. Certainly wouldn't surprise me...still would like to start seeing some signs of a bit earlier phase to ensure this possibility. Definitely interested in what the 6z ensembles show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 72hr qpf through hour 132 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Certainly wouldn't surprise me...still would like to start seeing some signs of a bit earlier phase to ensure this possibility. Definitely interested in what the 6z ensembles show. Whatever that dark blue contour is on the qpf charts, its reaching our area on the qpf map just posted-- what is that, 0.5"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Whatever that dark blue contour is on the qpf charts, its reaching our area on the qpf map just posted-- what is that, 0.5"? That might be either 0.50'' to 0.75'' or 0.75'' to 1.00''. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 Whatever that dark blue contour is on the qpf charts, its reaching our area on the qpf map just posted-- what is that, 0.5"? sorry, i edited it and low shows what color equals what (same as allans site) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 A bit off topic but the 06Z run continues the trend of the impressive blizzard somewhere in the Plains/Upper Midwest the 30th-31st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 6z GFS ensemble mean is west of 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdwx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 last 3 runs of OP GFS are virtually the same with location of low of MA coast.. Think Euro will stay about where it was last night. Nam will be out too lunch until 0z tonight.. What a difference 50 miles will make with this storm. Just like watching the Ravens, I'll be biting my nails until the very end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Could someone post the GFS ensembles when they get a chance? Coming out now. Here's a link. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/Members.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Looks like most show a glancing blow. Don't really take much stock in the off runs of the GFS but it is good to see almost all of them showing the Euro storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 6z GFS ensemble mean is west of 00z. ehh I think you need to qualify that by latitude, the ensembles are much improved in the northeast, but actually worse in the mid atlantic. They agree the phase happens late so while many now give New England snow, only 1 of 12 give DC anything more then flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Looking at the 500's wouldn't that argue for pulling the surface low closer into shore then what is currently shown? Not talking the mid Atlantic but later on up towards NE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 ehh I think you need to qualify that by latitude, the ensembles are much improved in the northeast, but actually worse in the mid atlantic. They agree the phase happens late so while many now give New England snow, only 1 of 12 give DC anything more then flurries. Theyre in the new england post xmas thread.... I posted an analysis for NYC and there's a marked improvement over the last set of ensembles. Hopefully there is for your region also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Theyre in the new england post xmas thread.... I posted an analysis for NYC and there's a marked improvement over the last set of ensembles. Hopefully there is for your region also. Unfortunately they are worse then 0z were for the DC area. The phase happens 6 hours later, once it happens the low really cranks so its better for NYC and Boston. its worse for DC and Baltimore as the low gets further east before turning north. I had no time to do a full analysis but only 1 member gives DC accumulating snow, and even that member its probably only a few inches. The rest are flurries at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Unfortunately they are worse then 0z were for the DC area. The phase happens 6 hours later, once it happens the low really cranks so its better for NYC and Boston. its worse for DC and Baltimore as the low gets further east before turning north. I had no time to do a full analysis but only 1 member gives DC accumulating snow, and even that member its probably only a few inches. The rest are flurries at best. Yeah the southern/early phase by the Euro seems to becoming less and less likely. I think the chances are increasing in SNE for something decent but decreasing in parts of the MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 6z ensemble mean seems to be in pretty good agreement with the op. A few members(4?) give a signficant snowstorm to the eastern half of jersey and a mod event to the west, couple other members are only grazing the eastern areas with light-moderate accum, a couple others are complete misses. The mean precip is spot on with the op run. SLP mean maybe slightly east as you would expec. I believe the Euro and gfs are slowly trending towards agreement with eachother. Hopefully that agreement is leaned more towards the euro side of things. The mid-Atlc/DC area, im not really sure what to make of things right now except that they arent trending too well for you guys at the moment. Plenty of time for things to go both ways and I'm still banking on the over all consistency of the euro runs for at least the nyc/NE area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 6z ensemble mean seems to be in pretty good agreement with the op. A few members(4?) give a signficant snowstorm to the eastern half of jersey and a mod event to the west, couple other members are only grazing the eastern areas with light-moderate accum, a couple others are complete misses. The mean precip is spot on with the op run. SLP mean maybe slightly east as you would expec. I believe the Euro and gfs are slowly trending towards agreement with eachother. Hopefully that agreement is leaned more towards the euro side of things. The mid-Atlc/DC area, im not really sure what to make of things right now except that they arent trending too well for you guys at the moment. Plenty of time for things to go both ways and I'm still banking on the over all consistency of the euro runs for at least the nyc/NE area. 3 of the ensemble members had over 1 inch qpf (up from 2 from the last set of ensembles) and 6 had over 0.5 inch qpf (up from 4 from the last set)..... means avg is also up from approx 0.35 to 0.50 inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Unfortunately they are worse then 0z were for the DC area. The phase happens 6 hours later, once it happens the low really cranks so its better for NYC and Boston. its worse for DC and Baltimore as the low gets further east before turning north. I had no time to do a full analysis but only 1 member gives DC accumulating snow, and even that member its probably only a few inches. The rest are flurries at best. meh, the DGEX gives nothing to NE and an inch, at best, in the MA in 12 hours I'm seriously wondering if this weekend is not just a replay of last for everyone so be it if it is, its still Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 meh, the DGEX gives nothing to NE and an inch, at best, in the MA in 12 hours I'm seriously wondering if this weekend is not just a replay of last for everyone so be it if it is, its still Christmas I'm not sure its a cardinal sin to have little faith in the DGEX, I used that thing regularly in the Plains because it used to show insane deviations from most of the models and it never verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I'm not sure its a cardinal sin to have little faith in the DGEX, I used that thing regularly in the Plains because it used to show insane deviations from most of the models and it never verified. well, I bring it up only because it was consistent showing last week's storm ots last year, for whatever reason, it did well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I think we may be at the point that in these patterns, modeling is impossible to trust outside of 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Yeah the southern/early phase by the Euro seems to becoming less and less likely. I think the chances are increasing in SNE for something decent but decreasing in parts of the MA. you're wrong GFS was always OTS and now that its coming in closer to the EURO, you say the EURO solution is LESS LIKELY??? bad analysis sir! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 you're wrong GFS was always OTS and now that its coming in closer to the EURO, you say the EURO solution is LESS LIKELY??? bad analysis sir! I think he's getting at the fact the odds this thing can left hook or turn due north in time to hit DC is decreasing....this storm as of now takes an odd track in that it goes NE and then more N or NNE up the coast, so it takes a trajectory that could hit NJ northward but not DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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