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6Z Guidance Discussion 12/23/2010


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This is really looking good through 42 HR...looking MUCH better than both the 0z NAM/GFS and both looked relatively good. Much slower and held back with the southern stream s/w and much stronger and consolidated with the northern stream energy...also liking how the southern s/w is already closing off down in TX...definitely coming in line with the euro in that regards.

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Looking great at 48 HR! Southern stream s/w still disconnected from the northern stream energy and isn't getting absorbed yet like it was on the 0z run. Looks like the northern stream energy is really starting to dig now so I'd assume we'd start seeing the trough really start to dig more as well, especially with a nice jet rounding down the right side of the ridge axis.

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Really looking good I think...taking a big longer to dig with the trough but I think that's b/c everything is slowed down on this run which certainly works in our favor...looks like some pretty good UL divergence going on as well in the vicinity of the southern s/w which should help to maintain it's intensity and should mean we really start to see a nice sfc low start going. This should help to pull the baroclinic zone in towards the coast as well which is a good thing.

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i dont understand how this any better for anyone east of the rockies..totally cuts QPF in half for everyone...0z was near .50 for me now while it barely gives .10 here...

it is after all the 06z nam :arrowhead: but overall, much drier run then prev. 00, 18, and 12z runs. 00z gfs wasnt very kind either for eastern nebraska. 12z runs will tell us how its gonna go. no need to panic yet :pepsi:

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06z NAM with a different solution than the 00Z nam which was different than the 18Z nam...more or less 3 completely different runs in a row...if the 12z NAM shows a 4th different scenario its apparent the NAM is still performing like crap as it did with the last event...if the 12Z run looks remotely like the 00z one I'll give it some respect at least for the time being, meanwhile I'd continue to run with some sort of mix of the GEM/GFS/Euro. The NAM is basically ending with the same idea of a low on the East Coast on every run but its finding different ways to get there.

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