jcwxguy Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 06z nam out to hr 24 So far sfc low is a hair north and 1mb weaker hr 18 and slower at hr 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Nam is amplified and phasing at 24hrs of real close to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 night and day differences so far at the sfc for central plains (amount of qpf) (much less) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Appears to be closed off at hr36 over north-central Texas. Less phasing going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Still closed off at hr42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 This is really looking good through 42 HR...looking MUCH better than both the 0z NAM/GFS and both looked relatively good. Much slower and held back with the southern stream s/w and much stronger and consolidated with the northern stream energy...also liking how the southern s/w is already closing off down in TX...definitely coming in line with the euro in that regards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 Appears to be closed off at hr36 over north-central Texas. Less phasing going on. much farther sw and closed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 low off the texas se coast and 500 still closed off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Not only is this looking better with the southern stream s/w but it looks a million times better with the northern stream energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 i really think we are going to go to the wire with this system i certainly think there will be some great and not so great runs the next 48 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 hour 66 500vort off the coast a quick look the sfc and 500 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Looking great at 48 HR! Southern stream s/w still disconnected from the northern stream energy and isn't getting absorbed yet like it was on the 0z run. Looks like the northern stream energy is really starting to dig now so I'd assume we'd start seeing the trough really start to dig more as well, especially with a nice jet rounding down the right side of the ridge axis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 hour 72 at the sfc and 500 vort and at hour 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Really looking good I think...taking a big longer to dig with the trough but I think that's b/c everything is slowed down on this run which certainly works in our favor...looks like some pretty good UL divergence going on as well in the vicinity of the southern s/w which should help to maintain it's intensity and should mean we really start to see a nice sfc low start going. This should help to pull the baroclinic zone in towards the coast as well which is a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 This is like night and day. Distinct southern short wave really digging into the gulf. Not a pro but looking at that 500 this looks very good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 hour 84 OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Saw that coming a mile away. The 2 streams dont want anything to do with each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omahawx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 i dont understand how this any better for anyone east of the rockies..totally cuts QPF in half for everyone...0z was near .50 for me now while it barely gives .10 here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I wonder if the low is a bit further out to sea than it really should be given how things look. I would think it would be closer to the coast...baroclinic zone is pretty close to the coast and that low placement seems a bit far removed from the best UL divergence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Looks like a swing and a miss on the 6z NAM. May be enough of a hook to hit eastern New England late in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Well that was disappointing. Looks like it just dampens out the the southern shortwave and basically has the northern feature as the dominate one. Curious what a met has to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 i dont understand how this any better for anyone east of the rockies..totally cuts QPF in half for everyone...0z was near .50 for me now while it barely gives .10 here... it is after all the 06z nam but overall, much drier run then prev. 00, 18, and 12z runs. 00z gfs wasnt very kind either for eastern nebraska. 12z runs will tell us how its gonna go. no need to panic yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 it is after all the 06z nam but overall, much drier run then prev. 00, 18, and 12z runs. 00z gfs wasnt very kind either for eastern nebraska. 12z runs will tell us how its gonna go. no need to panic yet Don't 6z runs tend to be the drier of the 4 runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 06z NAM with a different solution than the 00Z nam which was different than the 18Z nam...more or less 3 completely different runs in a row...if the 12z NAM shows a 4th different scenario its apparent the NAM is still performing like crap as it did with the last event...if the 12Z run looks remotely like the 00z one I'll give it some respect at least for the time being, meanwhile I'd continue to run with some sort of mix of the GEM/GFS/Euro. The NAM is basically ending with the same idea of a low on the East Coast on every run but its finding different ways to get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omahawx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 it is after all the 06z nam but overall, much drier run then prev. 00, 18, and 12z runs. 00z gfs wasnt very kind either for eastern nebraska. 12z runs will tell us how its gonna go. no need to panic yet even 0z gfs was better..gave us 2-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
28storms Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Dang where is everyone? The shortwave is slower through 48HR on the 6Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 New theme for the 6z runs....missing the phase or phase too late. 6z GFS is headed toward that at 54 hours. I'm gonna wait for 12z to confirm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 New GFS is a bit slower than 00z. Maybe a tick west too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 6z GFS definitely west in time for SNE... big hit BOS/PVD. Phases later than Euro... but looks good aloft could come west more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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