LakeEffectKing Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, BGM Blizzard said: Yeah fell asleep. Here now. Lol....I did too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, BGM Blizzard said: Yeah fell asleep. Here now. Need your kutchie maps for fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 0z Euro SLP track took about ~50 mile jog NW vs. 18z going from near C NJ (18z) to just south of NYC (0z). Definitely in trouble around these parts. 0z 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1st call through 06z Wed (includes a bit of LES Wed eve.) BUF: 11" ROC: 20" SYR: 14" BGM: 8" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 7 minutes ago, tim123 said: Debbie downers are out in full force. Just because somebody doesn't call for 20 inches to 2 feet doesn't make them a "Debbie Downer." Freak gave his reasoning for going lower. Sounds like he thinks we will actually have the best banding go over the Southern Tier instead of the Genesee Valley. Doesn't mean I agree...but also doesn't make him a debbie. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Here some individual frames off the 0z run... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 0z Euro for Mon-Tues only... Precip 10:1 Pre-monday Kuchera Post-storm Kuchera 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 0z Euro Thur-Fri storm only... Precip 10:1 Pre-Thursday Kuchera Post-storm Kuchera 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 May possibly have a 2 to 4 foot snow pack. Across upstate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 0z EPS for Mon-Tues. Definitely a noticeable shift NW in the mean from 18z run. Precip 10:1 10:1 Running total spread 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 0z EPS for Thur-Fri storm. Definitely a noticeable tightening of the mean since 12z run. Precip 10:1 10:1 running total spread 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Don't see lake effect like this often in chicago. This is hrrr for storm. Amazing times we are in. Hope they get it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 4 hours ago, LakeEffectKing said: 1st call through 06z Wed (includes a bit of LES Wed eve.) BUF: 11" ROC: 20" SYR: 14" BGM: 8" BUF: 13” ROC: 19” SYR: 10” BGM: 5” * Both BGM and to a lesser extent SYR will have some sleet mixed in for lower amounts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 The LES potential for Tues. evening for areas near SYR, looks pretty good, for a 6-12hr. period. And after Thursday/Thursday night's storm even better, for 24 or so hrs! Tues eve.: Fri. Morn.: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankees102110 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Starting to look like it will be a sleet/freezing rain fest here in my area of the Southern Adirondack/Great Sacandaga lake region. Im hoping the first part overperforms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Some 6z guidance Not seeing as much DS on any model, hopefully it stays that way lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 6z Ggem That's 1"-1.5" liquid just to my south/east over the southern boys.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 6 hours ago, LakeEffectKing said: Yeah this storm has you and Tim written all over it. I don't want to jinx it but I absolutely love where ROC is for the first storm. Models have been extremely consistent and is in a very robust location for handling NW or SE trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 45 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: The LES potential for Tues. evening for areas near SYR, looks pretty good, for a 6-12hr. period. And after Thursday/Thursday night's storm even better, for 24 or so hrs! I mentioned that last night. Would be a great topper! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 BGM and their huge, area-wide watches... Lol Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben- Schuyler-Chemung-Tompkins-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland- Chenango-Otsego-Tioga- Including the cities of Boonville, Penn Yan, Seneca Falls, Auburn, Syracuse, Corning, Hornell, Watkins Glen, Elmira, Ithaca, Hamilton, Oneida, Rome, Utica, Cortland, Norwich, Oneonta, Owego, and Waverly 330 AM EST Sun Feb 14 2021 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 9 inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 6z Euro sends banding thru BUF-ROC while C NY has dry slotting issues. Models are having a hard time with the track and which side of the Apps the SLP should be up around WV vicinity. Precip 10:1 Pre-monday Kuchera Post-storm Kuchera 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Buf - 10 ROC -12 Syr -10 Bgm -7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Here some bigger picture surface frames... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Here the matching 700mb frames. Not a good look for CNY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Nam products try to slot us as well but not before we get into some nice snows and it's brief.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 LR Hrrr I think it's ending snow to soon as most models have it around 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 42 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Buf - 10 ROC -12 Syr -10 Bgm -7 Just my opinion but your #s are low. This is a minimum 15-1 ratio. Is this reverse psychology or are you seeing something we all aren’t? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 44 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Here some bigger picture surface frames... Toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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