TugHillMatt Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 In reality, there were back-to-back-to-back-to-back major snowstorms...in Oklahoma City and Little Rock. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Disappointing part of this next one is that if there was just a primary, south shore would do ok, but the secondary over Western PA (probably WNY) steers the flow to SW- screwing us....again. Could even have ptype issues but I’m talking about enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Gotta love how this one refuses to move any more north as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Gotta love how this one refuses to move any more north as we get closer. I blame ALL of this week on you. jk. Sorta. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, 96blizz said: I blame ALL of this week on you. jk. Sorta. Ha! We all know it's true. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 I blame Wentz from Philly for spreading some bad I-95 juju where it wasn't welcome! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 If I looked at this, out of context, I’d think, ‘whoa, that’ll be good!” 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 3k looks to be showing the possibility of a Huron/Georgian Bay connection on our WNW flow around these parts. Still a couple days away, of course...but that potential may be better than the synoptic part here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 2 hours ago, rochesterdave said: If I looked at this, out of context, I’d think, ‘whoa, that’ll be good!” You'd be wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said: 3k looks to be showing the possibility of a Huron/Georgian Bay connection on our WNW flow around these parts. Still a couple days away, of course...but that potential may be better than the synoptic part here. I'd get excited about that if I wasn't sucked into the vortex of Bustogenisis like last night. I feel like the passengers on the Titanic trying to swim away from the sinking ship B'ville! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 29 minutes ago, Syrmax said: I'd get excited about that if I wasn't sucked into the vortex of Bustogenisis like last night. I feel like the passengers on the Titanic trying to swim away from the sinking ship B'ville! The Canadians and Ukie are showing a REAL nice lake event for Saturday. Perhaps I will take a 2 day retreat from looking at any model and hope to be pleasantly surprised come Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Maybe the kinks are showing us where this thing is headed, lol! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 The SLP over the GOM is essentially waiting for the energy thats now coming through the 4 corners area of the SW and then it hauls ass up the Coast. Its that Jetstreak that steers this event further to the S&E but maybe there's a chance, who knows but if it benefits us then forget about it happening, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 The 18z and 0z Euro made consecutive NW shifts in the main axis of precip fwiw. Kuchera crack... Thru 18z Friday compare... 0z 12z Thru 0z Sunday compare... 0z 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Looks similar to the 0z GFS overall in snowfall axis anyway... Thru 18z Friday Thru 0z Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Is it any coincidence that BGMs comparing of snowfall amounts match the Kuchera maps? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 May actually end up with a solid 3-6" here after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 And damn, look at that band running thru Philly and CNJ. Has to be 2-3"/HR 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Radar doesn’t look too friendly right now as it looks like the snow is getting stunted from making much more forward progress. Could bust low but ratios and longer duration of lighter snows can still get 4-6” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 hour ago, crossbowftw3 said: Radar doesn’t look too friendly right now as it looks like the snow is getting stunted from making much more forward progress. Could bust low but ratios and longer duration of lighter snows can still get 4-6” Agreed. You're right it doesn't look good right now, BUT... if the models are correct, the best snow comes between 1am-10am Friday for our area. Most of the models seem to develop a decent band during this time frame but disagree on where it sets up. General consensus seems to favor Poconos to Catskills so you're in good shape. If the Euro and some other models are correct, a bigger chunk of CNY might get in on the action. Some frames off 6z Euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 There isn't even a surface reflection with this system as it's pretty much a CF or shall I say a stationary front where a storm may perhaps form but the lowest pressure I could find was 1014 MB in the GOM. The mid levels lp's are better developed /organized than the surface is but perhaps we're just seeing the beginnings of a surface reflection down in the gulf, who really knows, lol! Surface Then we have the 925 MB 700MB Moisture lvl Suffice to say, we have quite a disorganized system here and who knows if its gonna get its act together but ya never know, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 The snow on radar is vanishing faster than a fart in the wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 24 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: The snow on radar is vanishing faster than a fart in the wind My farts don't vanish that quickly... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 5 minutes ago, vortmax said: My farts don't vanish that quickly... I have two huge dogs to blame on it...luckily they’re on par with Mobil and Sunoco in distribution 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 LE to start impacting west shore again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 7 minutes ago, vortmax said: LE to start impacting west shore again... It looks like western NY has snow moving in from the southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 OT - Today is the day the Perseverance rover lands on Mars. Landing is scheduled for 3:55 PM. The time from entry into the Martian atmosphere to touchdown is called 7 minutes of terror. Many scientists and engineers have devoted their whole careers to this mission. For more information go to space.com. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Blinding virga in skaneateles 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 7 minutes ago, 96blizz said: Blinding virga in skaneateles There was more recorded activity in the Bermuda Triangle than up above right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Radar shows moderate snow. Reality shows nothing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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