rochesterdave Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Summer 2012 repeat please! Wrong forum. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 17, 2021 Author Share Posted February 17, 2021 I need 5" more to past last years total and 22" to get to 100". I think we do both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 17 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I need 5" more to past last years total and 22" to get to 100". I think we do both. Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 I’m a couple tenths of an inch short of 70 inches of snow for the season. Without a big storm (more than a foot) I don’t think I can make 100. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Lake band trying to refire. It probably won’t have much success. I might get a few flakes out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 40 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: A repeat of last summer would be fantastic, one of the best I've experienced in Buffalo. Absolutely disgusting to say the least! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 31 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Summer 2012 repeat please! Remember that well. My one and only winter spent in Oswego and was looking forward to experiencing some of the best winter conditions Lake Ontario had to offer. Outside of one decent lake effect storm on a weekend that I wasn't there for, it was the winter that never happened. Summer weather and 70s by March was a nice consolation prize though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polarbear Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: I'm surprised more of you snow weenies don't do more winter activities. Almost every weekend you'll catch me downhill boarding/skiing, cross country skiing, hiking, playing ice hockey or snowmobiling. That's how I get my fill of winter. Staying at home doesn't cut it for me. I play ice hockey every Saturday, usually go to holiday once a night during the week and try to get out and hike/cross country at local areas once a week. I started snowmobiling in 97 at 14, but had to give it up in ‘16. My lack of time due to work demands in the winter and the disappointing storms like what we just had was driving me crazy. I’d get so grumpy because of it. Now I just vacations to WY for a week and ride. Now when the disappointments like yesterday happen I can just shrug it off. Im hoping to be able to move Wy/co area in the next 5-10 years and get back into riding. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 17, 2021 Author Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Polarbear said: I started snowmobiling in 97 at 14, but had to give it up in ‘16. My lack of time due to work demands in the winter and the disappointing storms like what we just had was driving me crazy. I’d get so grumpy because of it. Now I just vacations to WY for a week and ride. Now when the disappointments like yesterday happen I can just shrug it off. Im hoping to be able to move Wy/co area in the next 5-10 years and get back into riding. The guy I hike with a lot is in Wyoming right now. He sent me this earlier today. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Sorry but this is just silly. Someone please tell me how 2-5 over a 31 hour period meets WWA criteria in middle of February in upstate NY. Maybe in North Carolina but not here. Pretty sure this has more to do with trying to save face and avoid the humiliating cancellation of a premature WSW... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 17, 2021 Author Share Posted February 17, 2021 NAM looks good but QPF maps look light, kind of weird. Has snow over us from hour 24 until the end of the run but only 1-2" on the maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 18Z Runs look somewhat better...not sure if this is a back-and-forth between the alternating runs...I guess we'll know more (I think?) at 0Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 9 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: 18Z Runs look somewhat better...not sure if this is a back-and-forth between the alternating runs...I guess we'll know more (I think?) at 0Z Which models are you looking at, lol! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 17, 2021 Author Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, CNY-LES FREAK said: Which models are you looking at, lol! The korean model. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Which models are you looking at, lol! The Nam 3k and the HRRR look better. But then you look at the Rgem, and it shows the SAME OLD shtick of a heavier band of snow out in Ohio up to Ontario and then the main wave to our south...with us sandwiched in between in the CRAP zone. That will probably come to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 I mean...honestly...how many times have we seen this over this season? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: NAM looks good but QPF maps look light, kind of weird. Has snow over us from hour 24 until the end of the run but only 1-2" on the maps. Well it is the NAM... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Those maps are tricky because they tend to look better than it actually is lol Light blue is like 4-12 dbz lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 52 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: I mean...honestly...how many times have we seen this over this season? lol NE winds off the Dacks and the Tug, which totally sucks ass! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Next system on deck is an area of low pressure currently developing over the western Gulf Coast. This system will take a northeast track toward the east coast through Thursday night. Model trends concerning this system have brought it further to the southeast over the last few runs as trends aloft have shown the development of a stronger jet streak over the central Appalachians on the lee side of the trough. This track will nearly guarantees that the precipitation type remains as all snow for our area, with warm air aloft remaining well south of the region. Model precipitation totals have continued to come down across western and north central New York, therefore have continued the recent trend to come off snow totals for this event. A general 2 to 4 inch accumulation looks reasonable before drier air aloft potentially allows for a bit of freezing drizzle toward the end of the event late Thursday night. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Colder air filters into the area as the surface low pulls to the northeast and away from the Canadian Maritimes overnight Friday. As surface high pressure and upper level riding lag further behind the departing low, lingering moisture and available lift through the DGZ will allow for lake induced equilibrium levels to jump to over 7kft, allowing for lake effect snow to develop by Friday night. A tightening pressure gradient will allow strengthening NNW flow aloft to bring this snow to southern Lake Ontario and southeast of Lake Erie. Slow moving high pressure over the Tennessee Valley will allow surface riding to build in Saturday, gradually diminishing lake effect chances. Due to the relatively short fetch with the more northerly flow, overall snowfall accumulations will be relatively minor Friday night through Saturday. A more potent upper level ridge will move overhead Saturday night, bringing an end to the lake effect and leaving the area with dry conditions by Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 All that being said, the upper level pattern shifts will result in surface high pressure overhead Sunday. This will ensure quiet weather conditions Sunday and the first half of Sunday night. Meanwhile, the sharpening trough in the upper level pattern will produce an area of low pressure over Colorado before tracking northeast and crossing the central Great Lakes Sunday night and the region Monday. This surface low will then give way to another low riding up the Atlantic Coast Monday night. The aforementioned shortwave crossing Saskatchewan Monday, will produce an area of low pressure that will traverse northeast into Canada. While the low remains out of the forecast region, its associated fronts will cross the area Tuesday through Wednesday. This far out, have high uncertainty as to the precipitation type for both of systems next week due to the differences between timing and track of the next system in the model guidances. Thus, as of now expect some form of precipitation either snow or a rain snow mix for both systems next week, will have to keep an eye on the pattern as time advances. Temperatures trend to near or even above normal as we head into next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Ch 2 hedging on the over for our first round of betting... 4-7”? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 3 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said: I hate saying this, but, with the new pool and a full season to use it, plus the brand new AC unit bring installed in April I say bring it on I have a pool also and last summer was great...once it got here. Usually thinking of getting the pool going around Memorial Day but esp last year that was delayed a bit. It's been early June the past two years before i got the pool going. I like warmer water >76 degrees, so I need to get some sort of solar heater although last summer i didn't really need one. But that's rare. It would extend the pool season though by a couple of weeks at each end, which matters around here. Once March is over i'm ready for full bore global warming char broiled weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 47 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: NE winds off the Dacks and the Tug, which totally sucks ass! I thought that downsloping wasn't really an issue for these parts? Certainly seems to be this year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 hour ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Ch 2 hedging on the over for our first round of betting... 4-7”? I have noticed a WSW or SW component and adding some lake moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 hour ago, Syrmax said: I have a pool also and last summer was great...once it got here. Usually thinking of getting the pool going around Memorial Day but esp last year that was delayed a bit. It's been early June the past two years before i got the pool going. I like warmer water >76 degrees, so I need to get some sort of solar heater although last summer i didn't really need one. But that's rare. It would extend the pool season though by a couple of weeks at each end, which matters around here. Once March is over i'm ready for full bore global warming char broiled weather. We have tossed around the idea of a gas heater as our youngest one has had 3 heart surgeries since birth and her average pulse ox is upper 80’s at best. The warmer water is more beneficial so she doesn’t get cold too quickly. It would also lengthen the amount of time we can enjoy the pool. We have the solar cover as well and it does work well especially in full sun. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, CNY_WX said: Put 'em up! 4" merits WSW now. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 The title of this thread gets more ironic every time I look at it... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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