TugHillMatt Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: Yeah, warmest panel on the ICON Oh, yeah. Duh. I could have looked at that. Airhead moment. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Icon snow to ice on to dry slot storm 2 lots of time on that one. Looks like a blend of gfs and euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 6 minutes ago, tim123 said: Icon snow to ice on to dry slot storm 2 lots of time on that one. Looks like a blend of gfs and euro. Of course I would love all snow...but if we get 8 to 12 inches on Tuesday and then a nice thump on Thursday/Friday capped/sealed with a layer of ice...we could have quite the preserved glacier as we head into late winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Pretty impressive winter weather US map...dang: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, tim123 said: Icon snow to ice on to dry slot storm 2 lots of time on that one. Looks like a blend of gfs and euro. Stays subfreezing here throughout. Would be a shitshow verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Would've liked to see a couple inches tonight, but looks like that ain't happening. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Goofus looks like a good hit even better than 18z for first storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, tim123 said: Goofus looks like a good hit even better than 18z for first storm Ice storm here. We'll see 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 I'll take the Para GFS please. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 8 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: I'll take the Para GFS please. Looks reasonable to me! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Another step in the right direction with GEFS increasing QPF. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Gfs i notice each run keeps goin farther se with second low but then ends up in same place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 36 minutes ago, vortmax said: Pretty impressive winter weather US map...dang: Been perusing the various warnings and watches nationwide. Snow and ZR in coastal Louisiana and TX...temps 4cast down to 20 in extreme south TX and the cold up in the upper midwest. February is delivering... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 27 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Looks reasonable to me! @TugHillMatt jackpotting? how crazy would that be? Cmon man! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Cmc for second storm hardly even gives much precip. Looks goofy to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SyracuseStorm Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 12 minutes ago, tim123 said: Cmc for second storm hardly even gives much precip. Looks goofy to me Toss it! Need this first storm to make its play and go from there IMO. Shows some LES for a prolonged period next weekend FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Ukmet looks big for roc. Here is precip for storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 18 minutes ago, tim123 said: Cmc for second storm hardly even gives much precip. Looks goofy to me Looks like it's working on a transfer of energy from the primary to a secondary on the coast. That could very well lead to less precip. in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Ukmet both storms still snowing at end of run. All snow. Here is precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 9 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Yep. This is all I was saying earlier on the other thread. Yet again more NW on the new Nam run. Tonight's "event" is a no-show, as the precip is farther north than forecast. Still another 36 hours left for this Monday-Tuesday event to do the same. I really wouldn't concern yourself with model noise, lol. No 2 runs will look identical to each other so you should expect some perturbations either to the N&W or S&E 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 At 15 to 1 that's about 27 inches for both storms on south shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Actually has most snow from roc east on second storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Tomorrow's 12Z and 00Z runs should hopefully lock this in. Although it's been looking solid for a couple of days. Interested to see if 00Z Euro stays consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Waiting on the King Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Would imagine would be similar to ukmet. Looks identical to 12z euro. 2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Waiting on the King Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Total for both UK: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: Total for both UK: At 10 to 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Tim, I know temps are going to be nice and cold, especially for Storm 1, but that doesn't always equate to fluffy snow with high ratios. We often get excited about high ratios for synoptic systems and they end up being lower than expected. I just don't want you to get excited about huge numbers...but ultimately that's up to you how you want to feel. What this does have going for it is the moisture and, of course, lake enhanced snow can have a great fluff factor. Either way, you're looking great...just the high numbers you're putting out there may be hard to reach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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