CNY_WX Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Yeah, IdK about it being similar to that event, unless ur talking about your area, as I picked up c;lose to 14", but if it ever gets its act together and stays over one location then it would perhaps, lol! I got 13.2 inches from that. I went to bed around midnight with a couple of inches down. My wife took our dog out about 7 AM and came back and told me there was a foot. She can exaggerate so I didn’t believe it until I got up to see it with my own eyes. What I’m getting at is there must have been some insane rates during the night. Maybe we can pull it off again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 TBH, I absolutely despise WNW winds because the band itself is so temperamental to any fluctuation of the flow that if it moves by 5 degrees, well then you can kiss your band goodbye, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 The band is definitely coming back south over Wayne and Cayuga counties. I am actually outside the southern edge of the band right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 We can only hope but IDK, as this band looks like its done, which makes absolutely no sense whatsoever, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 At least the Southern Tug is getting some good Orographic lift... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Some decent squalls In rochester now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 39 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: We can only hope but IDK, as this band looks like its done, which makes absolutely no sense whatsoever, lol As soon as it moved south and came off the lake it lost all intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 It may have lost some intensity, but it is snowing heavily here as the area of LES moves back in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Gfs medium to LR doesn't look terrible, probably see some liquid mixed in but plenty of storm opportunity.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 hour ago, CNY_WX said: The forecast for this lake effect event was for 3-6 inches. I’m at the lower end of that already with at least a,couple more inches to go. So it might not be an overachiever but the forecast will solidly verify here. Yeah we're done here. Intermittent snow. I havent measured but prob just about 2" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 17 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: It may have lost some intensity, but it is snowing heavily here as the area of LES moves back in. As soon as I made that last post the snow picked up in intensity again. It doesn’t look pretty on radar but it’s producing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, CNY_WX said: As soon as I made that last post the snow picked up in intensity again. It doesn’t look pretty on radar but it’s producing. The inversion height is pretty low with this, only up to 800mb, based on the sounding I looked at...so some low topped stuff could be sneaking under the radar beam. Can still produce. Forecasts look reasonable in aggregate. We may squeak out the 3-4" forecast here, north of Rt 31. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Yeah, radar looks awful...BUT I just got back from a glorious Jebwalk in 1/4 mile visibility heavy snowball. Between 2 and 3 inches has fallen. So, radar isn't picking up on it well. On another note, we've had many midnight snowfalls this season. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Farther North and West on several of the 06Z runs. You can just see that desire the low has to move north and then the classic "bend" we have become accustomed to this season. Let's see if we can get it to work in our favor this time. What you see in the 06Z runs may be our best option... because if a low remains west of the Apps, it's "Ships A'hoy!" to a Great Lake. Safe bet for Friday: 3 to 6 inches for many of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, TugHillMatt said: Farther North and West on several of the 06Z runs. You can just see that desire the low has to move north and then the classic "bend" we have become accustomed to this season. Let's see if we can get it to work in our favor this time. What you see in the 06Z runs may be our best option... because if a low remains west of the Apps, it's "Ships A'hoy!" to a Great Lake. Safe bet for Friday: 3 to 6 inches for many of us. Yep. 3KM in one run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Whopping 1.3" on 0.06" Liquid equiv. So we are 3 for 3 in terms of busts so far in this "week to remember'. I'm including last weekends appetizer that slowly fizzled to flurries in this count. Two more "events" to go this week including the WNW flow possible this weekend after the synoptic storm goes by. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Syrmax said: Whopping 1.3" on 0.06" Liquid equiv. So we are 3 for 3 in terms of busts so far in this "week to remember'. I'm including last weekends appetizer that slowly fizzled to flurries in this count. Yeah the Mets are on quite the roll... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Ok I’m going to go out in a limb here and say the Euro is flat out wrong. The model is way off this morning with the precip and is severely underdone. It has no precip over the next 2 increments and looks to be too far south...heard that before? Look at the radar map and match it with the forecast... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 24 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Whopping 1.3" on 0.06" Liquid equiv. So we are 3 for 3 in terms of busts so far in this "week to remember'. I'm including last weekends appetizer that slowly fizzled to flurries in this count. Two more "events" to go this week including the WNW flow possible this weekend after the synoptic storm goes by. Hmm, you must have gotten screwed as it transitioned. It poured snow here for a couple hours. Ended up with 3 to 4 inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 14 hours ago, CNY_WX said: Does anyone know what’s going on with the King City radar on the Canadian side? There has to be more activity coming off Georgian Bay than it’s showing. It’s been that way for a while. Canada has started a full country wide weather radar upgrade. The Exeter (London) radar was fully upgraded already. Kings radar upgrade was started March 2020 and expected to be completed June 2021 and Britt (Northern Muskoka like Hunstville, Parry Sound, Northern Georgian Bay) is expected to start spring 2021 and finish late fall 2021 https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/weather-general-tools-resources/radar-overview/modernizing-network.html#wb-auto-4 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 It’s a beautiful morning. I ended up with 5.1 inches of lake effect fluff on 0.14 inch of liquid. Skies cleared after the lake effect moved out and temperatures plummeted. It was -1 at 8 this morning. That’s over 8 inches of snow over the last 2 days. Once again the lake bailed me out after getting let down by the synoptic system. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 10 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: It’s a beautiful morning. I ended up with 5.1 inches of lake effect fluff on 0.14 inch of liquid. Skies cleared after the lake effect moved out and temperatures plummeted. It was -1 at 8 this morning. That’s over 8 inches of snow over the last 2 days. Once again the lake bailed me out after getting let down by the synoptic system. Damn. Looks like Matt passed the Jonah off onto me this time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Woke up to about an inch of fluff that's quickly sublimating. Exciting times. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankees102110 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Around an inch here this morning, every little bit helps the snowmobile trails. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 17 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Nam .3 is about 4”...at this point I take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 12Z ICON kind of smashes the slp. This one could be a miss in the SE direction and weaker than progged recently. GFS a little better but not great either. Maybe 3-4" up to SYR/BUF. Edit: that's 6Z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Rgem not much.. Probably a 1"-3" over a 24 hour period.. Sounds about right lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said: Hmm, you must have gotten screwed as it transitioned. It poured snow here for a couple hours. Ended up with 3 to 4 inches. Good for you Matt I too ended up with close to 6" for the event if ya wanna call it that! Yeah, a WWA definitely wasn't warranted in Onondaga cty and I guess they finally realized that cause they pulled them waaaayyyy ahead of the scheduled 10AM expire time, lol! Perhaps they thought no on would notice! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 6 minutes ago, Syrmax said: 12Z ICON kind of smashes the slp. This one could be a miss in the SE direction and weaker than progged recently. GFS a little better but not great either. Maybe 3-4" up to SYR/BUF. Edit: that's 6Z GFS Yeah I was gonna say it hasn't even run yet, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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