TugHillMatt Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Yeah you should be in and out of squalls very soon if not already. Yeah, I have been. Maybe an inch of new fluff this evening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Now that the band is taking shape, snow is lightening up here. I wonder why that always happens...as the band forms, it "steals" away any moisture that is fanned out around it. That's pretty much it...no illustrations needed! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 17, 2021 Author Share Posted February 17, 2021 18 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: It doesn’t even look that impressive but it’s snowing heavily. Yeah that band looks good. Someone is going to get a foot if that parks anywhere for the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, TugHillMatt said: Yeah, I have been. Maybe an inch of new fluff this evening? Its once again re orientating itself and there seems to be 2 bands competing for the same wind flow, lol, one up by Oswego which heads east over Mexico and then SE from there and then theres the one affecting us down here so hopefully they can combine to form one consolidated band, who knows though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, CNY-LES FREAK said: Its once again re orientating itself and there seems to be 2 bands competing for the same wind flow, lol, one up by Oswego which heads east over Mexico and then SE from there and then theres the one affecting us down here so hopefully they can combine to form one consolidated band, who knows though! It looks to me like the southern band is becoming dominant. That’s the one giving Revracer his snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 If this band sticks around all night like its supposed to then a foot will easily be had, if not a bit more, because it pounding snow right now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 10 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Now that the band is taking shape, snow is lightening up here. I wonder why that always happens...as the band forms, it "steals" away any moisture that is fanned out around it. LEK can correct me but as the band organizes it “tightens” up. Also as the circulation in the band strengthens there is subsidence on the edges which squashes precipitation. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: It looks to me like the southern band is becoming dominant. That’s the one giving Revracer his snow. I think ur right as the one above looks like its not firing anymore as it makes its approach but the other continues to fire noicely! 1 minute ago, CNY_WX said: LEK can correct me but as the band organizes it “tightens” up. Also as the circulation in the band strengthens there is subsidence on the edges which squashes precipitation. No need for correction, ur right ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: LEK can correct me but as the band organizes it “tightens” up. Also as the circulation in the band strengthens there is subsidence on the edges which squashes precipitation. the subsidence is usually stronger on one side but I'm not sure which! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 There may be a lull in the action as the band figures out what it wants to do, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Getting some decent squalls, but probably nothing like you guys are getting. This may end up being another one of those events like December where you guys right on the border get over a foot and I get 6 inches. I wish it would nudge south just a little bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 If I had a better knee it would be a perfect night for a Jebwalk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 18z Euro and EPS continued the trend in the wrong direction and are drying up like a desert. What are the odds this WSW ends up disappearing like a fart in the wind without even a WWA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SyracuseStorm Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Glad LES can make up for the shit show yesterday! Still stuck in PA amd have o drive back to BVille tomorrow and out to Buffalo till Friday. With my luck, I am gonja get screwed! I almost got in a fight at a f***ing indoor water park over this winter with some jackass that said he knew it was a bust days ago. I fly off the cuff and appreciate everyone here with the time to post maps, the time to breakdown own opinions. Forever grateful and thank you to all the studs that keep stirring the sh** and putting in the effort! Best forum, hands down, willing to do bare buckle with anyone who says otherwise. A couple guys in MA forum, I would pay to do the honors.jk..not really though...but... I studied meteorology in college when I wasn’t destroying my brain with football. I will never forget not going to class and had a final project to do with isotherms and isobars- nailed it and prof have me a D+ because I never actually went to class. His exact words were “if you actually came to class, you would have gotten a B+ and I argued that if I did, in fact, go to class, it would have been an A+...he still disagreed. drunk ramble over and time to get some sleep- I know I am a joke on here but truly appreciate y’all. KB 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, SyracuseStorm said: Glad LES can make up for the shit show yesterday! Still stuck in PA amd have o drive back to BVille tomorrow and out to Buffalo till Friday. With my luck, I am gonja get screwed! I almost got in a fight at a f***ing indoor water park over this winter with some jackass that said he knew it was a bust days ago. I fly off the cuff and appreciate everyone here with the time to post maps, the time to breakdown own opinions. Forever grateful and thank you to all the studs that keep stirring the sh** and putting in the effort! Best forum, hands down, willing to do bare buckle with anyone who says otherwise. A couple guys in MA forum, I would pay to do the honors.jk..not really though...but... I studied meteorology in college when I wasn’t destroying my brain with football. I will never forget not going to class and had a final project to do with isotherms and isobars- nailed it and prof have me a D+ because I never actually went to class. His exact words were “if you actually came to class, you would have gotten a B+ and I argued that is I did go to class, it would have been an A+...he still disagreed. drunk ramble over and time to get some sleep- I know I am a joke on here but truly appreciate y’all. KB Was it Kalahandra by any chance on rt381? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 @BGM Blizzard, on those Euro runs. As I said earlier today, it's either weak and waaaaaay south, or amped and waaaaaaaay north. This winter sucks for Upstate. Period. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Couple snowy days on the Nam, even if it is on the ligher side.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 28 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: @BGM Blizzard, on those Euro runs. As I said earlier today, it's either weak and waaaaaay south, or amped and waaaaaaaay north. This winter sucks for Upstate. Period. Try to enjoy what we have. It's been a solid month at least. We've seen worse... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Now the band is lifting north. These bands always want to lift north. Oh well..00Z runs seem to show it sweeping through here later. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 About an inch here as we flirt with the southern edge of the lake band, which still looks disorganized. It may come together yet but its tricky on these WNW setups. My $ would be on just a bit north of me, similar to the 12/29 WNW event...and I'm almost on the border with Oswego cty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Couple snowy days on the Nam, even if it doesn't amount to much.. Looks like a ground covering snow for all of the northeast...except northern Maine! lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Syrmax said: About an inch here as we flirt with the southern edge of the lake band, which still looks disorganized. It may come together yet but its tricky on these WNW setups. My $ would be on just a bit north of me, similar to the 12/29 WNW event...and I'm almost on the border with Oswego cty. That's pretty much exactly what I said an hour ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 47 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: 18z Euro and EPS continued the trend in the wrong direction and are drying up like a desert. What are the odds this WSW ends up disappearing like a fart in the wind without even a WWA? Personally, I'll give a rats azz about NWP output for the next system after the 12Z runs tomorrow, and more likely the following 00Z Thurs runs. There's been almost no value in any of these model runs up until 24 hrs ahead of time this season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Personally, I'll give a rats azz about NWP output for the next system after the 12Z runs tomorrow, and more likely the following 00Z Thurs runs. There's been almost no value in any of these model runs up until 24 hrs ahead of time this season. Yep. T-24 only thing of value 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Now the band is lifting north. These bands always want to lift north. Oh well..00Z runs seem to show it sweeping through here later. We'll see. Looking at the west end of the lake, the band is sinking onshore. I think we will lose most of this soon. Not sure if it will reorient later overnight, probably needs some sort of short wave passing thru to do that. LEK gave a good lesson on band orientation on the east end of the lake years ago. I think frictional effects and the orientation of the southern shoreline combine to play a role in tending to keep lake bands a bit north of here as they roll off the east end of the lake. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 The 700 LP moved solid 150 miles in last 24 hours on the last one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 The forecast for this lake effect event was for 3-6 inches. I’m at the lower end of that already with at least a,couple more inches to go. So it might not be an overachiever but the forecast will solidly verify here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SyracuseStorm Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 50 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Was it Kalahandra by any chance on rt381? Yes sir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 10 minutes ago, Syrmax said: About an inch here as we flirt with the southern edge of the lake band, which still looks disorganized. It may come together yet but its tricky on these WNW setups. My $ would be on just a bit north of me, similar to the 12/29 WNW event...and I'm almost on the border with Oswego cty. Yeah, IdK about it being similar to that event, unless ur talking about your area, as I picked up c;lose to 14", but if it ever gets its act together and stays over one location then it would perhaps, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, SyracuseStorm said: Yes sir Nice, great place for a day or 2 getaway during the Winter months! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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