CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 The flakes had no time to coalesce as they were falling simple as that as the snow goes region was probably at most 1,800 ft thick which is a joke in atmospheric termsSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 On to the next one. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 20 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Not true here. Kuchie still had 13-15” here off of .8-1.0” LE. I had .92” LE and only 6.6” of snow. Less than half of the Kuchie totals... If you do look back at the Euro ensembles yesterday they did have a high LE and low totals. I brought this up and it was stated it’s the 50 or so separate runs smoothed out, however maybe it was on to something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: On to the next one. Watch. The Mets and models will under model this one and it will over perform 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: Watch. The Mets and models will under model this one and it will over perform It's right where we want it. Awaiting the 150 mile last minute NW jog. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Can't wait to forget ? Having these busts are normal where I live on the coast. I have seen sleet with every storm so far this season. I'm up to 32 inches for the year ( average 27) Sleet isn't the end of the world for all of you since you average 80+. I understand you live in a snow pit, but why do you continue to come on here and guilt us all for "living in a place that averages over 80 to 100 inches a winter"? I know since you don't live in a lake effect area, it's tough to understand the crapfest we've been dealing with in Upstate New York the past couple winters. Compared to AVERAGE, it's been awful. When you live somewhere where more consistent winter is sort of expected or the norm...you expect a more solid winter than you would living in NYC. Many of us living in this zone are on here because we are passionate about BIG snows and yes, some choose their area in hopes of great winters (muah included in that). It's also a bit discomforting to think that our climate over here may be shifting towards a more coast-like one, with these mixed-bag events and just mild air in general. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London snowsquall Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 A disappointment here in Ontario as well considering the hype and modelling. Flake size was small, snow started late and ended early. Fortunately we missed the sleet this far NW. Best action of this event has been this morning after the SLP was gone. L. Huron delivering with some N and NW winds. Good flake size and some blowing. Maybe some of you can cash in on these winds from L. Ontario later on. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: On to the next one. Congrats Ottawa looks to be appropriate? Perhaps Hudson Bay should be gearing up? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Ok, on to #2. Who's got the Kuchie maps? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 4 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: I understand you live in a snow pit, but why do you continue to come on here and guilt us all for "living in a place that averages over 80 to 100 inches a winter"? I know since you don't live in a lake effect area, it's tough to understand the crapfest we've been dealing with in Upstate New York the past couple winters. Compared to AVERAGE, it's been awful. When you live somewhere where more consistent winter is sort of expected or the norm...you expect a more solid winter than you would living in NYC. Many of us living in this zone are on here because we are passionate about BIG snows and yes, some choose their area in hopes of great winters (muah included in that). It's also a bit discomforting to think that our climate over here may be shifting towards a more coast-like one, with these mixed-bag events and just mild air in general. Fair enough 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Fair enough Much peace, and please, continue to join us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 06Z GooFuS sounding for KSYR @ midpoint of upcoming system. Looks promising. For now. Omega aligned with DGZ, RH decent and saturated column. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said: I do have to say there is quite a bit of snow on the ground right now and this is the best I’ve witnessed in some time, especially for how long this stretch has lasted. I measured 13.5” OTG and we still might add to that Thursday into Friday I can't wait to see your snow depth reach 13.6 inches by Friday night. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 5 minutes ago, vortmax said: Ok, on to #2. Who's got the Kuchie maps? At your service Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: At your service Thanks for supplying the crack. Half the fun is the lead up to these storms guys. Nobody is an idiot for enjoying a potential snowfall, Kuchera or not. Relax and enjoy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 Still deep winter across NYS, almost everyone has a snow depth of 12"+. That's pretty rare honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 On to the next one. OMG this is actually for Thursday Friday's event, WOW, lol, yeah I'm not doing this again No way, lolSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 48 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: It's already 34° here what is going on? Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Up to 38 here. We may briefly touch 40 down here before CF comes through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Light snow with decent dendrites. A couple of fluffy inches of LE would sooth the wounds... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 10 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: At your service A lot of that is from the scraps of the first storm. Here’s Kuchie for the 2nd event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 12z at hour 60.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 47 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Just trying to cheer up freak, granted the HRRR sucks ass.. That might "cheer Freak up" but for some of us.................................... 45 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: That had nothing to do with it lol All those weenie maps were when the storm was cold lol Once the models started pushing the warmth north Kuchera was less than 10-1 at times.. The track changes Kuchera changes lol Not to mention we didn't get the amount of precip most guidance had.. 41 minutes ago, Syrmax said: My final ratio was 5.9:1. I never saw any Cucaracha maps with ratios that low. Yeah, I mentioned this when I noticed the Kuchera actually showing less snow than the 10:1. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 For those still somehow still greedy folks in CNY, or desperate, pathetic, weenies (like me), here's a GooFuS sounding for Sat a.m. I am not an expert on LES parameters (or anything really) but I notice the sounding for this point in time has WNW/NW direction, low shear thru the lower levels and an inversion up to about 800mb level, which isn't that impressive...but we could get some fake snow out of this near SYR area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 24 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: I understand you live in a snow pit, but why do you continue to come on here and guilt us all for "living in a place that averages over 80 to 100 inches a winter"? I know since you don't live in a lake effect area, it's tough to understand the crapfest we've been dealing with in Upstate New York the past couple winters. Compared to AVERAGE, it's been awful. When you live somewhere where more consistent winter is sort of expected or the norm...you expect a more solid winter than you would living in NYC. Many of us living in this zone are on here because we are passionate about BIG snows and yes, some choose their area in hopes of great winters (muah included in that). It's also a bit discomforting to think that our climate over here may be shifting towards a more coast-like one, with these mixed-bag events and just mild air in general. You keep this talk up and we might just keep you...it’s a long shot but there’s a chance... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 27 minutes ago, Syrmax said: A day or so before the storm, one of our forum regulars, @CNY-LES FREAK posted a model sounding, i forget which one, and it showed a mismatch between Omega and the DGZ...which gave me pause but even then it wasn't showing the warmth up above at all. But...it was accurate in that dendrite size/type was more "needly" and sub-optimal. Which made me think the Cucaracha's were going to bust. Right. I usually like to use the Cobb 11 technique on bufkit. It takes into account rh t and omega. It generally had like 12 or 13:1 for BUF which was wrong too. I imagine what happened is that the models misplaced the omega a little too high above the warm nose. If the omega verified closer to the warm nose that 12:1 turns into 8:1 quite easily. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: You keep this talk up and we might just keep you...it’s a long shot but there’s a chance... Oh, shut up and enjoy the one tenth of an inch of snow you'll get on Friday. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, TugHillMatt said: Oh, shut up and enjoy the one tenth of an inch of snow you'll get on Friday. Is that 0.1” using the Kuchie method? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 06Z GooFuS sounding for KSYR @ midpoint of upcoming system. Looks promising. For now. Omega aligned with DGZ, RH decent and saturated column. Looks much more promising this time around we'll seeSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, lakeeffectkid383 said: Is that 0.1” using the Kuchie method? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 All aboard the Kuchera train 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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