CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 7 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Furthermore, I don't even think that is the dry slot seeing as the Surface Low is south of it in Eastern TN. That's just a ragged precip shield that should fill in nicely in the hours to come. The dry slot hasn't really even developed yet. Agreed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 9 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Furthermore, I don't even think that is the dry slot seeing as the Surface Low is south of it in Eastern TN. That's just a ragged precip shield that should fill in nicely in the hours to come. The dry slot hasn't really even developed yet. Agreed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 We still doing the kuchera thing? Cool cool cool. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, OSUmetstud said: We still doing the kuchera thing? Cool cool cool. Haven’t taken a core (still too little) but I would bet the snow that has fallen so far is no higher than 10-12:1. Pure sugar/baking soda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, lakeeffectkid383 said: Haven’t taken a core (still too little) but I would bet the snow that has fallen so far is no higher than 10-12:1. Pure sugar/baking soda. same over here in GTA/Niagara Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Ok my bad it’s snowing moderately very tiny flake structure about 1.5” so far roads are completely covered 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: The 12-18 is just west of me...Dev that should be you? It is snowing almost heavy rates but the flake size is killing it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: The 12-18 is just west of me...Dev that should be you? It is snowing almost heavy rates but the flake size is killing it Yeah not a chance I see 12-18 “ . Coming down good like you said but it’s accumulating so slow cause of the flake size. I would not be surprised at all to have .8 or .9” QPF when all said and done and less than 10” of snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Rgem caved and has the decent synoptic snow pretty much only in the counties bordering the Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Coming down heavily in Pittsford. Visibility down to 1/8-1/4. Good flake structure. The ceiling lowered, the gray/yellow fog descended, bathing everything in that erie, surreal glow. Even the cars are quiet; their headlights illuminating a ragged cone in snow. Perfect 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 17 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Rgem caved and has the decent synoptic snow pretty much only in the counties bordering the Lakes. This storm will be in Nova Scotia before BGM does any kind of forecast adjustments lol. Maybe they're thinking there could be a December 2020 BGM-style death band of 6"/hr in the final 1-2 hours of the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 I think Rgem is going to be a good model to use in that it is picking up on the snow ratios being less than 10:1 on the Kuchera. Then the ratio changes when we get the system out of here and the lake effect kicks in with higher than 10:1 ratios. Perhaps we'll get some nice dendrites and better ratios when the banding moves through. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, BGM Blizzard said: This storm will be here and gone before BGM does any kind of forecast adjustments lol Ha. Well, I noticed that they did do a subtle (not mentioned) "Onondaga County" forecast change of us only getting a total of 4 to 8 inches by tomorrow now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Heavy snow now flake size increasing, however, I am worried about a dry slot near Erie, or is that my imagination Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: Heavy snow now flake size increasing, however, I am worried about a dry slot near Erie, or is that my imagination As Delta mentioned I don’t think it’s a dry slot, if you look SW of Cleveland there is more precip streaming to the NE however it’s definitely a sizable patch of dry air that was not modeled at all and will put another dent in the totals to go along with the poor flake size. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 4 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Ha. Well, I noticed that they did do a subtle (not mentioned) "Onondaga County" forecast change of us only getting a total of 4 to 8 inches by tomorrow now. The sounding that Freak posted yesterday (?) was cause for concern regarding snow growth zone. Looks like ZR/IP/RN will be the dominant precip type south and east of Lake Ontario. Brutal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 Yeah this is going farther NW then any modeled showed again. Sleet reports way west. Doubt anyone gets double digits out of this aside from Chicago to northern Michigan. How far NW will the Thursday system go? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 4 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: As Delta mentioned I don’t think it’s a dry slot, if you look SW of Cleveland there is more precip streaming to the NE however it’s definitely a sizable patch of dry air that was not modeled at all and will put another dent in the totals to go along with the poor flake size. Some of the high Res models this morning and at noon showed something similar. Just a little swirl or dry air and no forcing. Seems like it should fill in and be transient as it approaches WNY. 12z NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah this is going farther NW then any modeled showed again. Sleet reports way west. Doubt anyone gets double digits out of this aside from Chicago to northern Michigan. Yep mix line is at the Erie County border now. What is up with that dry “patch” about to swing through here? Anyone know what’s causing it and why it wasn’t modeled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah this is going farther NW then any modeled showed again. Sleet reports way west. Doubt anyone gets double digits out of this aside from Chicago to northern Michigan. How far NW will the Thursday system go? That Friday storm is somehow missing out SE in the last few runs so sign us up for a NW jog late in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Updated KBGM map. I think it's too high. The lower 9/10 probability map looks better, for snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 I don’t know. I’m feeling pretty ok about P-Type. It expands and contracts but I don’t see it racing north. Maybe I’m delusional. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Yeah Baglini on 4 just mentioned a couple hour dry slot...we might be bordering on bust territory here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAIDEsNow.2 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Evening started with promise - 2" down with decent rates / flake size, then mixing started about an hour ago. Not a whole lot of expectation for the remainder of the night. My P&C now down to 3-5" overnight (not a chance) from 6-10" earlier. Of course up along the lakeshore will get hammered and over perform I am certain (which never happened by the way during the 23 years I lived up there). First 14 winters living here in the "snowbelt" in Edinboro, averaged 158.8" snow each winter topping out with 224.3" in 08-09. Welp, the last three, including this one as of now: 94.0" in 18-19 104.5" 19-20 66.5" to date 20-21 It simply does not snow in south central Erie County PA anymore. Every event underperforms greatly. So, another craptastic winter with another sold F grade coming up. Looking forward to an up & in miss to the NW or a down & away miss to the SE on Thursday. Cabin Land not faring much better relative to the annual seasonal average of 180 - 200" mark out by Peak / Findley Lake area. Do have a decent snowpack of about 16" as of this evening. However, not adding much tonight I bet. Radar looks anemic as of this post and webcams for the Peak & Wilderness lodge show nada. Must be a mix now as well or just pixie dust falling. Thanks for entertaining my cathartic rant. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah this is going farther NW then any modeled showed again. Sleet reports way west. Doubt anyone gets double digits out of this aside from Chicago to northern Michigan. How far NW will the Thursday system go? Thurs system will fizzle into nothing. It's over modeled right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Updated KBGM map. I think it's too high. The lower 9/10 probability map looks better, for snow. Agreed. @SyracuseStorm needs to get on the horn and find out why the WSW have not been torn down yet. We need answers! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxNoob Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Ripping now, decent flake size too. Shame it’s not gonna last long here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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