Syrmax Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Wut da JMA got? Asking for a friend... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 BGM stands strong. Shaved a little off south of here but still very similar to their 5:45AM update. Super high 8” plus percentages 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 26 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Wrong way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Wrong way I said the same thing, lol! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 7 minutes ago, tim123 said: Rgem both storms still snowing at end of run I'll take the deal, Howie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 87% for 8"+ in SYR seems super over-confident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2021 Author Share Posted February 15, 2021 36 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: I mean any snow in Hamilton is impressive, but 40cm is only 15 inches. Which is more or less what a lot of this forum thought we were going to get just a day ago. It's not earth shattering stuff though. They just got 2' from Lake effect a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 A LLJ such as the one depicted here can do some damage quickly as it transports warm moist air Northward mainly in the mid lvls so lets see where this jet heads! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2021 Author Share Posted February 15, 2021 Snow has already started here for the last hour or so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2021 Author Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Snow has already started here for the last hour or so. Lightweight stuff for sure. I thought I wasn’t going to see 2”+ snow rates again this year but tonight might bring that again! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: That’s a monster storm system 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2021 Author Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, Thinksnow18 said: That’s a monster storm system Posted in other thread, but a massive tornado in georgia right now. It's off the charts on radar * At 442 PM EST, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located 7 miles southeast of Arlington, or 12 miles north of Colquitt, moving northeast at 60 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! https://fb.watch/3GFO8s9vQ9/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 7 minutes ago, 96blizz said: BGM stands strong. Shaved a little off south of here but still very similar to their 5:45AM update. Super high 8” plus percentages The northwestern sections of Yates to northern Oneida counties... basically left of a line from Penn Yan to Boonville still have a fighting chance to get 6-8 and salvage the WSW... but as for the rest of that map... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Not concerned at all yet because we have light returns overhead but just wanted to note the snow that is falling is literally straight tiny needles literally looks like tiny ice shavings from a snow cone maker. Any reason why the flakes are like that? Not sure i remember ever seeing them so needle like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Precip shield advancing quickly now to the N&E! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SyracuseStorm Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 22 minutes ago, tim123 said: Rgem both storms still snowing at end of run Can we please focus on storm #1 for now? CNY has to eat a sh** sandwich and #2 is a bs event as well so please- one train wreck at a time. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, CNY-LES FREAK said: Precip shield advancing quickly now to the N&E! I will say from a lot of experience living in NJ and Philly that WAA snows often come in way faster than modeled. That may be part of what NWS BGM sees too. You don’t need many hours of rates like this on the RGEM to pile up really quick. Always used to call it the classic “Thump to Snizzle.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 12 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: They just got 2' from Lake effect a few days ago. Ok, so does that make another 15 more or less impressive? I'm also highly skeptical anyone got 2 feet. 12 inches sure, 18 maybe.... 2 feet.. nope. Not believing that for a second. Anyway, good for them though. That's one of the worst places in the whole Great Lakes in regards to getting appreciative snow. I'm sure their local snow nerds are in their glory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 GFS both storms. The lake effect it’s showing behind storm 2 is impressive at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 10 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Ok, so does that make another 15 more or less impressive? I'm also highly skeptical anyone got 2 feet. 12 inches sure, 18 maybe.... 2 feet.. nope. Not believing that for a second. Anyway, good for them though. That's one of the worst places in the whole Great Lakes in regards to getting appreciative snow. I'm sure their local snow nerds are in their glory. The Burlington area got 12-15", on the 12th, then a similar area got 4-6" on the 13th. You won't find it in the Hamilton airport totals because they're much further inland. Those easterly lake effect bands usually form in very light low-level synoptic flow in arctic airmass, so they don't extend very far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 18z HERPES is awesome. Will post totals when done. Looks a lot like RGEM (as expected) and nothing like GFS. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, 96blizz said: 18z HERPES is awesome. Will post totals when done. Looks a lot like RGEM (as expected) and nothing like GFS. Lol herpes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SyracuseStorm Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, 96blizz said: 18z HERPES is awesome. Will post totals when done. Looks a lot like RGEM (as expected) and nothing like GFS. Lmao!! Herpes always over delivers even when you wish it wouldn’t! I am in the Poconos and just want WNY/CNY to get crushed- this map is 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, SyracuseStorm said: Lmao!! Herpes always over delivers even when you wish it wouldn’t! I am in the Poconos and just want WNY/CNY to get crushed- this map is Indeed. HERPES always delivers. And sticks around a LONG time Its clear to me the NWS has early access to the Canadian models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 26 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Not concerned at all yet because we have light returns overhead but just wanted to note the snow that is falling is literally straight tiny needles literally looks like tiny ice shavings from a snow cone maker. Any reason why the flakes are like that? Not sure i remember ever seeing them so needle like. My belief is once the actual system arrives the moisture will get to the snow growth zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 I was just watching The weather channel and they were talking about that deadly tornado in Georgia and right after that segment they showed an in-house model or whatever they use at the weather channel and it had the mix line staying pretty much south of Syracuse through the whole event so I don't know where they're getting these models from but that's what I just sawSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 12 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: The Burlington area got 12-15", on the 12th, then a similar area got 4-6" on the 13th. You won't find it in the Hamilton airport totals because they're much further inland. Those easterly lake effect bands usually form in very light low-level synoptic flow in arctic airmass, so they don't extend very far. Ok good, I'm glad we confirmed that no one got 2 feet. I didn't see a single verified measurement over 25cm.... and for reference. 2 feet is 60cm. Anyway, I'm done nitpicking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: My belief is once the actual system arrives the moisture will get to the snow growth zone. Needles are common around -5C. That's where the warm nose is at and it's pretty dry with weak omega. The lift will increase tonight and increase in depth with the incoming low, so they'll be clumps of different kinds of flakes then. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, OSUmetstud said: Needles are common around -5C. That's where the warm nose is at and it's pretty dry with weak omega. The lift will increase tonight and increase in depth with the incoming low, so they'll be clumps of different kinds of flakes then. Overall take on this one? Sleet to thruway or north? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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