TugHillMatt Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Since the GHD storm, Syracuse has had about 3 inches of total snowfall. Rough winter. Still up in the air on what this week will bring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said: Since the GHD storm, Syracuse has had about 3 inches of total snowfall. Rough winter. Still up in the air on what this week will bring. My favorite storm was just a few days ago. We got 5.5” in about 6 hours of ‘unexpected’ lake effect fluff. It was so peaceful and pretty. I love those surprises! They can be more fun than sweating the models for days. Ive made peace with this being different than what we hoped. One thing that’s been decent is the cold seems to want to hang on. So while we deal with sleet and dryslot and lack of dynamics for enhancement- at least we won’t be melting north of the thruway. Save that for Thursday! Ha! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: My favorite storm was just a few days ago. We got 5.5” in about 6 hours of ‘unexpected’ lake effect fluff. It was so peaceful and pretty. I love those surprises! They can be more fun than sweating the models for days. Ive made peace with this being different than what we hoped. One thing that’s been decent is the cold seems to want to hang on. So while we deal with sleet and dryslot and lack of dynamics for enhancement- at least we won’t be melting north of the thruway. Save that for Thursday! Ha! Yes! Your pictures were great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Hey... atleast the Thur-Fri storm still looks rock solid for everyone on the 12z Euro. Who wants to take the bait...??? Matt? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Hey... atleast the Thur-Fri storm still looks solid for everyone on the 12z Euro. Who wants to take the bait...??? Matt? It’s right where we want it...for Detroit 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2021 Author Share Posted February 15, 2021 I’ll risk the taint to get into the highest snowfall rates. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: So much for the NWS "low-balling" us lol They may end up a little high.. Probably have a 6-8 hour window of moderate-heavy precipitation.. You just know there is a met sitting in a local NWS office reading all this and now cackling. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Welp, this nasty turn of events at least frees up the balance of the week from wanting to stay up late and track the storms. My sleep schedule will appreciate it. Should we rename the thread title? Back to Back Kicks in the Loaf? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 32 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I’ll risk the taint to get into the highest snowfall rates. I think you’re going to like the latest AFD BW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Looks like its time for us CNYers to wrap our brains around this becoming the "Expected" snowfall for this event (and probably High End for late week system). We coulda been a Contenda! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, Syrmax said: Looks like its time for us CNYers to wrap our brains around this becoming the "Expected" snowfall for this event (and probably High End for late week system). We coulda been a Contenda! I wonder if we'll be able to get a purely synoptic snowfall of over 5 or 6 inches this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said: I wonder if we'll be able to get a purely synoptic snowfall of over 5 or 6 inches this season. Doesn't look that way attm. But we probably will when the Big Dog snows of April and May arrive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 I might even have to cut my totals for tonight back to 3 to 6 inches for Syracuse. It would match our 3 to 4 inchers we've been getting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 NAM has some decent backside. Keeps Roc all snow. It’s going to snow very hard for a while! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2021 Author Share Posted February 15, 2021 NAM went SE! @LakeEffectKing called it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2021 Author Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: NAM has some decent backside. Keeps Roc all snow. It’s going to snow very hard for a while! That purple band is where I'll be having a shot of Fireball whiskey and taking my jeb walk at 2 am. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: NAM has some decent backside. Keeps Roc all snow. It’s going to snow very hard for a while! Hopefully we can overperform with some of that banding...doesn't take many hours at 3"/per Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2021 Author Share Posted February 15, 2021 Warmest frames on the NAM. Went SE about 50+ miles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 NWS not buying the doom. P+C has me at 8-12 for tonight alone. I’m happy and surprised and SKEPTICAL. A jog SE of 25-50 miles would make all the difference. A jog at all to the NW and sleet starts to cut in. I’ll have to dust off the pressure falls maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 There's a chance if precip is heavy enough its stays snow rather than sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Warmest frames on the NAM. Went SE about 50+ miles. CNY, we torch, then slot. Love it!! Will be living vicariously thru you all in WNY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 A psychologist would have a blast on this site. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Warmest frames on the NAM. Went SE about 50+ miles. I'm confused here. You're comparing two different hours from the 18Z runs. Looking at snowfall maps from 18Z, you certainly wouldn't think it went SE at all. If anything, went NW...again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 BGM doesn't seem to be backing off...their new warning says 7-11 inches. Perhaps they are thinking higher ratios? I defaulted to the 10:1 once I saw that mix line getting closer and closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 7 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: BGM doesn't seem to be backing off...their new warning says 7-11 inches. Perhaps they are thinking higher ratios? I defaulted to the 10:1 once I saw that mix line getting closer and closer. Just saw that. Quite comical. I vote@SyracuseStorm calls up the BGM office and asks them what models they are looking at... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 at least nam looks great for storm #2 what could go wrong ... lets just pretend this is the storm total for 1 storm.... not bad right 17 inch "snow storm" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2021 Author Share Posted February 15, 2021 Hamilton been having the best run in its history I think City of Hamilton A major winter storm is expected. Winter storm tonight into Tuesday morning giving 25 to 35 cm of snow. Heavy snow is expected to develop over the entire region this evening and persist into Tuesday morning where at least 25 centimetres of snow is expected. Northeast winds gusting near 50 km/h will result in very poor visibility in blowing snow especially from midnight to Tuesday afternoon. Even higher amounts of snow may be possible, up to 40 centimetres, in some locations due to extra moisture coming off Lake Ontario. Locally higher amounts may also occur on the higher elevations of the escarpment. Travel will be extremely hazardous until the snow moves east of the region on Tuesday morning. Local blowing snow may persist until Tuesday afternoon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 8 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: BGM doesn't seem to be backing off...their new warning says 7-11 inches. Perhaps they are thinking higher ratios? I defaulted to the 10:1 once I saw that mix line getting closer and closer. Yeah 10:1 is probably about right for the snowfall part of the event here. No Kuchie magic here. I plan on being asleep during the 6-8 hours of the storm overnight so my melted equivalents will probably be lower than 10:1 factoring in any PL/IP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, SnowLover22 said: at least nam looks great for storm #2 what could go wrong That Storm is dead to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 "centimetres" oh my god it's adorable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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