TugHillMatt Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, CNY-LES FREAK said: Don't start patting yourself on the back just yet my friend as lots can still and probably will happen, its the Weather! I'm still going with my call of 6 inches for Syracuse. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Say what you want about the NAM but inside of 48 hours it's as reliable as any other model and perhaps moreso than most especially when it comes to sniffing out warm nose layers and NW shifts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, TugHillMatt said: I'm still going with my call of 6 inches for Syracuse. Me too, KBGM is toast already and so is KITH and next to go is KSYR, RLMAO, they just cant catch a break this yr, what a shame! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2021 Author Share Posted February 15, 2021 So at day 5 we want jackpot to be near Philly. That gives us enough wiggle room. We're learning this year. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Say what you want about the NAM but inside of 48 hours it's as reliable as any other model and perhaps more than moreso than most especially when it comes to sniffing out warm nose layers and NW shifts. Nam doesn't bother me but the GFS does, even moreso now, that it may in fact score a coup with this event! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 It's like whatever is in Canada does absolutely nothing to keep these storms from charging north anymore. If a high does lock in up there, it pushes it out to sea. There's no cooperation between the streams and players. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 7 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Say what you want about the NAM but inside of 48 hours it's as reliable as any other model and perhaps more than moreso than most especially when it comes to sniffing out warm nose layers and NW shifts. Yep! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: So at day 5 we want jackpot to be near Philly. That gives us enough wiggle room. We're learning this year. I still believe the Niagara Frontier is safe but it’s getting tighter by the minute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2021 Author Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I still believe the Niagara Frontier is safe but it’s getting tighter by the minute Yeah I still think we both get a foot of snow, a little more up your way. Either way we are going to get some crazy snowfall rates overnight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2021 Author Share Posted February 15, 2021 For both storms 1:10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 You guys in Buffalo and Rochester are going to be fine. This is going to keep coming north and west enough to make me do that...you know...what I said the other day... Anybody else need one? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah I still think we both get a foot of snow, a little more up your way. Either way we are going to get some crazy snowfall rates overnight. And to add to that the NWS went UP in snowfall tonight in my point forecast to 9-13”...talk about riding the line! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Catching up on this thread after 4 hours away while driving is darkly hilarious. “20 inches for everyone”! “I’m done”! “It’s over”! Oh the drama. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 10 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: So at day 5 we want jackpot to be near Philly. That gives us enough wiggle room. We're learning this year. Nah...if it's in Philly, then it will be suppressed. We want it...hmmm...doesn't seem like anywhere works...lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Maybe the models were including the "couple inches" we were supposed to get today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 The only hope we have is that the SREF's and the MESOscale models happen to be closer to the solution than the EURO and GFS, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2021 Author Share Posted February 15, 2021 6 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said: Catching up on this thread after 4 hours away while driving is darkly hilarious. “20 inches for everyone”! “I’m done”! “It’s over”! Oh the drama. Everyone is still getting 20". The eastern folk are getting it from the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2021 Author Share Posted February 15, 2021 HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 So much for the NWS "low-balling" us lol They may end up a little high.. Probably have a 6-8 hour window of moderate-heavy precipitation.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Most of BGMs accumulation forecast and warning/advisory map now has about 0 support with 99% precincts reporting. Theyll be overhauling it with the afternoon update. I'm guessing they leave a WSW in place from Yates to Oneida for now on the chance that northwestern sections of those counties still hit the low end 6-8" mark for WSW criteria, but everyone else S and E of that is knocked down to a WWA for sure and 1-6" tops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 12 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: This is a stupid map. So the heavy snow reaches Rochester around 10 then takes 2 hours to reach Sodus? I know it’s a generalization but I hate things that don’t make sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 8 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: HRRR Yeah but that’s almost 10am tomorrow. My guess is it stays all snow up until that point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Down in Tennessee, where it was supposed to be snow, they are getting a sleet storm instead. Upstream story of what's to come? I had to laugh because I was watching their live reporter, the meteorologist standing there reporting...she says, "Of all my years as a met, I have never seen this much sleet." (Sticks her hand down into about a half inch of sleet.) "We have about 3 inches of sleet on the sidewalk here that I'm standing on." (Meanwhile, the several inches of GRASS behind her waves to the camera...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 15 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Everyone is still getting 20". The eastern folk are getting it from the lake. Ya, though I'm more concerned with the dry slot now and I live 50 miles west of Buffalo haha. I still think Buffalo 14.4" Niagara (northern) 17.8" Rochester 13.3" Hamilton-14.1" Toronto (YYZ) 10.2" my guess is Northern Niagara County and Northern Niagara Region in Ontario are the jackpot for this storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Yeah. BUF will be slashing soon. The best dynamics have literally moved 200 miles in 24 hours. These models are terrible. ICON looks to have won another coup. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said: Ya, though I'm more concerned with the dry slot now and I live 50 miles west of Buffalo haha. I still think Buffalo 14.4" Niagara (northern) 17.8" Rochester 13.3" Hamilton-14.1" Toronto (YYZ) 10.2" my guess is Northern Niagara County and Northern Niagara Region in Ontario are the jackpot for this storm. You mean centimeters, right? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, TugHillMatt said: You mean centimeters, right? haha trying to bring some positivity. I still think far WNY has a good chance to go above double digits. But Ill admit the dry slot for far WNY and Niagara Region here is starting to creep into my mind. I got owned from GHD storm and that has left a pessimism scar haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 BGM'S low-end amount map will be the closest to verifying. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 8 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: BGM'S low-end amount map will be the closest to verifying. Funny how they always assign it a 1/10 chance of happening. That map really should have become the "expected" map after 12z runs yesterday. Behind the curve again. I feel even more confident in my forecast now after today's 12z runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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