TugHillMatt Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Wow its snowing where you are? Nice, as I have filtered Sun once again, lol! Actually have moderate snowfall right now. As soon as it started to snowi, the filtered sun came with it. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Big flakes falling quickly. Looks beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just started here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, TugHillMatt said: Big flakes falling quickly. Looks beautiful. No wind, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, CNY-LES FREAK said: No wind, correct? A little bit. Snow falling at about a 70 degree angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2021 Author Share Posted February 15, 2021 In Canada we trust 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Looks great lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 I was just going to say. I HOPE the Canadians win this battle. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: In Canada we trust Gotta say its been thee most consistent of the bunch so lets see which winds up closer. I will revisit this post at 1AM just to see how its doing! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 GGEM probably gonna show 3 feet between both systems and lake effect lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Seems the Canadian models have done pretty well over the past 4 weeks...both synoptic and LES. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2021 Author Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 I love that this is only 84 hours away but we have a snowstorm before it to get through! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Love 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Does this map align or connect to the point and click? Seems to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, 96blizz said: I love that this is only 84 hours away but we have a snowstorm before it to get through! I would imagine we'll see the same NW movement on this as we get closer as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Interestingly NWS has taken any mention of mixing out here. They’re secretly Canadian. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Wpc D 4/5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2021 Author Share Posted February 15, 2021 KBUF says mixing line won't make it as far north as some models are saying Area of light snow currently spreading across the region associated with a weak inverted trough. Still looks like we will receive some minor accumulations, a general 1" to maybe up to 2 inches in some locations. The snow will slowly taper off as we head into the afternoon hours. This will then be followed by a lull in precipitation later this afternoon with several hours with little to no accumulating snowfall. The lull in the precipitation will be short lived with snow moving back in as a stronger storm approaches from the south this evening. Light snow will overspread the region and pick up in intensity with the arrival of a 50 to 55 knot LLJ. Deep moisture and lift extending well through the DGZ will likely lead to snowfall rates exceed 1" to as highs as 2 inches per hour at times overnight. The sfc low with this system will track from the southern Appalachians and then pass by just to our south by early Tuesday morning. With that said, there has been some concern that the p-type will potentially transition to a mix of snow/sleet. 15/06Z BUFKIT sounding profiles right now show this might occur over our far southeastern and eastern counties. This would be for Allegany, Livingston, and possibly Lewis county, if enough warm air is able to sneak in aloft to change it over. Otherwise, for a majority of our area it will be an all snow event with significant accumulations. The sweet spot right now appears to be along and just north of a tight baroclinic zone setting up across the region from the Niagara Frontier extending NE into the North Country. This is where snowfall amounts will likely approach 12" or even a bit more with contributions off Lake Ontario. Anyways, no changes to headlines with a Winter Storm Warning going into effect tonight which continues through Tuesday afternoon. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 First event.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 18 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: That's gonna bust big across atleast south central NY. We'll be lucky to get more than an hour of straight snow later this evening before we flip to sleet and freezing rain across Southern tier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Hmm...this really surprises me...especially with Madison and Cortland county included. They must not be buying the GFS. National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1121 AM EST Mon Feb 15 2021 NYZ009-015>018-022-023-025-036-037-044-161630- /O.CON.KBGM.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-210216T2100Z/ Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben- Schuyler-Tompkins-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland- Including the cities of Boonville, Penn Yan, Seneca Falls, Auburn, Syracuse, Corning, Hornell, Watkins Glen, Ithaca, Hamilton, Oneida, Rome, Utica, and Cortland 1121 AM EST Mon Feb 15 2021 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow. Total snow accumulations of 7 to 12 inches. * WHERE...Northern Oneida, Cortland, Tompkins, Schuyler, Steuben, Onondaga, Madison, Southern Oneida, Yates, Seneca and Southern Cayuga counties. * WHEN...Until 4 PM EST Tuesday. The heaviest snow will occur late Monday evening until around sunrise Tuesday morning. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Light snow today will produce around an inch or less. The bulk of the heavy snow will fall later this evening and overnight tonight. Snowfall rates tonight may reach around 1 inch per hour at times tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2021 Author Share Posted February 15, 2021 Last run of Euro and UK before the storm starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Well here's the ukie.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2021 Author Share Posted February 15, 2021 Almost now casting time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steffen Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Steady moderate snow here. Intensity has picked up nicely within past hour or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Ukie doesn't wanna let go either lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 12z Hi Res Canadian 2.5k. Small reduction in precip vs. 0z lead to lower snow totals but thermals and estimated mix lines looked about the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Hmm, looks like models are latching onto a significant dry slot over the Finger Lakes. That bubble of lower totals extends above the northern tip of the lakes, but there isn't any sleet or ZR there. If that dry slot is more pronounced than modeled, could take ROC into bust territory. Hopefully not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 55 minutes ago, vortmax said: So do these inits impact the rest of the run or are each frame compiled separately? Just something to keep track of as we go into the evening. It may have something to do with the atmospheric set up down there that is throwing the models off with the algorithms... Not sure.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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