TugHillMatt Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, 96blizz said: That’s kind of you man and I’m really sorry for what you’re going through as well - you know I can relate. Like you, weather is an outlet for me - a way to escape. And after I snapped a bit last night y’all could have been like “F this guy.” Instead I get a level-headed cool response from @TugHillMatt and then warm wishes from so many. It’s definitely teaching me to always try and give folks the benefit of the doubt when they may not act exactly how you expect or want them to - or maybe they snap a bit at you. You never know what they may be going through at that time. Since I moved up here I searched long and hard for a forum that was meaningful for my backyard - and this place has delivered in spades. When my family prays tonight I’ll be sure to add you and your Mom to the list. Thank you for your kindness. Thanks for the acknowledgement. I am not completely innocent, as I can be stubborn and rub people the wrong way with my cynicism. You're not the first to get sniippy with me. I am a reflective guy though and am always seeking to be better. Plus, grace plays a big role for me...and it's definitely easier to extend it when you know somebody is going through a hard time...all though I stubbornly work on trying to all the time. The forum is full of great people. I am fairly new to this area as well...and if you're ever up for a snow hike or any hike and would like a buddy to join, hit me up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 It was a decent improvement especially around ksyr.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, wolfie09 said: It was a decent improvement especially around ksyr.. Next run it'll realize its 100 miles further NW than most, if not all other guidance so its a big time outlier right about now, almost at showtime too!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Para Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: The Cuse holding on for dear life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Yeah buddy. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 I would much rather see this storm 1 flatter as it comes north. Looks like Para tries to do that. These SW to NE tracks never seem to bode well for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Yeah buddy. How low will she go... Until she turns back around to Ontario... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 That taint line on the GFS is right over my house as it is on a couple other models. It’s going to be interesting how this plays out, I could end up with 4 inches or 10 inches. This initial batch of snow is moving in and reports upstream (Wellsville, Penn Yan) have visibilities under a mile so hopefully we can pick up an inch or two from that. edit: visibility is 1/2 mile in Wellsville at 11 AM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Still going 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 One thing I noticed is the winds are starting to look more NW on the backside and more of a wrap around regime, at least at first.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 You only get one mom. I’m like a television comedy stereotype- Middle aged gay man who is completely dedicated to his overbearing mom. It’s been a struggle watching her age as she is my best friend and I can see our years are growing shorter. Upside is that I can really kick her ass at jeopardy. But, yeah, her time is limited. I can’t imagine what it’s like to have cancer in addition to all of it. It’s no wonder that you’re under some stress. Almost all of us have, at various points, shared personal struggles with the group. We are surprisingly supportive for a bunch of assholes. And someone beats on Matt at least once a week (I think he’s a red head?). You’re just man enough to apologize for it. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: That taint line on the GFS is right over my house as it is on a couple other models. It’s going to be interesting how this plays out, I could end up with 4 inches or 10 inches. This initial batch of snow is moving in and reports upstream (Wellsville, Penn Yan) have visibilities under a mile so hopefully we can pick up an inch or two from that. Just started here. Looks like the fine grainy snow that lowers visibility but doesn't amount to much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: You only get one mom. I’m like a television comedy stereotype- Middle aged gay man who is completely dedicated to his overbearing mom. It’s been a struggle watching her age as she is my best friend and I can see our years are growing shorter. Upside is that I can really kick her ass at jeopardy. But, yeah, her time is limited. I can’t imagine what it’s like to have cancer in addition to all of it. It’s no wonder that you’re under some stress. Almost all of us have, at various points, shared personal struggles with the group. We are surprisingly supportive for a bunch of assholes. And someone beats on Matt at least once a week (I think he’s a red head?). You’re just man enough to apologize for it. I AM Irish...from both parents... I am also the epitome of an Irish lad: stubborn, bad-tempered...but also extremely friendly, love to laugh, and keen on humbling myself. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Most meso models are too cold right now as they pretty much all have KSYR with a temp between 22-24 no higher and KSYR is currently sitting at 27F, not good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 13 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: I would much rather see this storm 1 flatter as it comes north. Looks like Para tries to do that. These SW to NE tracks never seem to bode well for us. Are you serious? No tracks bode well for us, lol! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: You only get one mom. I’m like a television comedy stereotype- Middle aged gay man who is completely dedicated to his overbearing mom. It’s been a struggle watching her age as she is my best friend and I can see our years are growing shorter. Upside is that I can really kick her ass at jeopardy. But, yeah, her time is limited. I can’t imagine what it’s like to have cancer in addition to all of it. It’s no wonder that you’re under some stress. Almost all of us have, at various points, shared personal struggles with the group. We are surprisingly supportive for a bunch of assholes. And someone beats on Matt at least once a week (I think he’s a red head?). You’re just man enough to apologize for it. I feel for you guys. You’re in the position I was in 20 years ago. I took care of my mom for the last 4 1/2 years of her life when she went into kidney failure and had dementia. Not only is the physical part of the care difficult but the emotional side of seeing someone you love decline takes a toll on you. I wish you the best and just remember to take care of yourself. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Both events on the gfs. Hopefully we see decent wrap around moisture lol Everyone wins then.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Model gyrations are why I don't make snow calls early. The ne.wx storm #4 contest deadline is 10pm tonight. I like to get a last minute look at the 00Z NAM and 18Z GFS so that I know what's NOT going to happen. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, CNY-LES FREAK said: Most meso models are too cold right now as they pretty much all have KSYR with a temp between 22-24 no higher and KSYR is currently sitting at 27F, not good! Yeah, this is going to be a sleet fest. Ugh. Unbelievable, every god damned run it comes further NW. I’m telling ya, Rochester is going to be feeling pingers for a while. Oh well. Hope for heavy rates and cold air mixing. Toronto is gonna have one heck of a storm. IAG too (probably). Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Again, GFS initializes sn/ip line wrong. 12z GFS at 18z: Current radar: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 6 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Yeah, this is going to be a sleet fest. Ugh. Unbelievable, every god damned run it comes further NW. I’m telling ya, Rochester is going to be feeling pingers for a while. Oh well. Hope for heavy rates and cold air mixing. Toronto is gonna have one heck of a storm. IAG too (probably). Lol on the flip side though, KBGM is sitting at 21F and guidance is sitting at 29F so who the heck knows whats gonna happen thats why its so exciting to track, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Flake size has improved here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, LakeEffectKing said: Again, GFS initializes sn/ip line wrong. 12z GFS at 18z: Current radar: So do these inits impact the rest of the run or are each frame compiled separately? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, vortmax said: So do these inits impact the rest of the run or are each frame compiled separately? Was gonna ask the same? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Flake size has improved here. Wow its snowing where you are? Nice, as I have filtered Sun once again, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Looks like a snow globe in Skaneateles! Big beautiful flakes! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, vortmax said: So do these inits impact the rest of the run or are each frame compiled separately? 1 minute ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Was gonna ask the same? Or I should say, independently... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 You guys have to remember that Syracuse is almost ALWAYS warmer than models show for it. The Hellmouth moved from Sunnydale, CA to Syracuse when Buffy left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 That's a moist look on the backside of storm 2.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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