CNY_WX Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Here’s the snow forecast from CNY Central For Matt, Syrmax and myself that blue line is right on our doorstep 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 7 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: I think lows are attracted to bodies of water. Ever notice how lp’s bounce along the east coast? How they never track over land? Same with Lake Erie and Ontario. I can’t tell ya how many times I’ve seen lows, that were expected to go over S Central PA, make a bee line for Erie and Buffalo. Hoping the high holds and the little bitty transfer takes place south of us. The other thing I usually forget (and I hate to bring it up right now) is that warm air usually advances further north and faster than expected with these situations. Especially in WNY. It just flies up the escarpment. This ones a little different in that warm air is coming from the SE- so maybe we get lucky. I’m counting on it! Yeah, I think this one is different in that there is some deep cold present. This could help to prevent that warn air from just flooding in to the west of the Apps and up the lake plains. The normal source for that warmth is pretty cold right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Pretty awesome double jet structure over the Northeast, which will aid in strengthening this SLP! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 I expect there to be some serious banding later this evening into tonight! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, CNY-LES FREAK said: I expect there to be some serious banding later this evening into tonight! Hopefully that will produce for us before the stupid dry slot and/or mix comes in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Some frames off the 12z NAM for 850 0c line, thickness, and p-type. I will be very interested to see what you guys in the greater SYR area report tonight when this slug of heavy precip comes thru... 6z 9z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 12k and 3k.. Solid 6"-12" with obviously some isolated higher amounts.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Pretty solid imo.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Some frames off the 12z NAM for 850 0c line, thickness, and p-type. I will be very interested to see what you guys in the greater SYR area report tonight when this slug of heavy precip comes thru... 6z 9z Obviously, I have been so frustrated with Syracuse's location in so many events lately. This one is no different. It is so, so tight. This could end being an event where we in the north Burbs get double what they get down along the rte. 20 corridor from 96blizz to King. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 8-10" for Toronto perhaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Obviously, I have been so frustrated with Syracuse's location in so many events lately. This one is no different. It is so, so tight. This could end being an event where we in the north Burbs get double what they get down along the rte. 20 corridor from 96blizz to King. I think the speed saves many of us near that line. Most of the qpf falls in a 4-5 hour period and it looks to be snow. So what was once 12” may now be 8” but it’s not like a ton of qpf is wasted on taint. Just the snizzly part. Plus we still have another on its heels to track and LES! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Obviously, I have been so frustrated with Syracuse's location in so many events lately. This one is no different. It is so, so tight. This could end being an event where we in the north Burbs get double what they get down along the rte. 20 corridor from 96blizz to King. Yeah there definitely could be a wide range in totals from SE to NW across Onondaga/Madison counties. You are in the right slice in that Lysander/Baldwinsville area to stand the best chance at staying all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Some high rez guidance.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 7 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Pretty solid imo.. I would take that, but I'm getting nervous about dry-slot issues (not so much mix) IMBY in SE Monroe. In the back of my mind I can easily envision a 6-hour thump that passes through quickly, with banding remaining to the west, but nothing else but scraps from ROC-SYR. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 7 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Obviously, I have been so frustrated with Syracuse's location in so many events lately. This one is no different. It is so, so tight. This could end being an event where we in the north Burbs get double what they get down along the rte. 20 corridor from 96blizz to King. That mix is really gonna make a run at us. Either way, we all get a front end thump and hopefully NO RAIN. We are riding that sleet line hard! How nice would it be to be watching this from Toronto? All snow for the canooks 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 I'm still trying to wrap my head around how quickly the mid levels warm with a SLP in WC PA . One other point ill make is that this system has to drop some serious accumulations in a relatively short period of time as its only a 12-15hr event, correct? The dynamics are definitely there but If its banding thats gonna get er done then I'd imagine there's gonna be some serious fluctuations of totals throughout our CWA. This is gonna be a very interesting event to track for sure! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, PerintonMan said: I would take that, but I'm getting nervous about dry-slot issues (not so much mix) IMBY in SE Monroe. In the back of my mind I can easily envision a 6-hour thump that passes through quickly, with banding remaining to the west, but nothing else but scraps from ROC-SYR. We will see. All part of the fun. Gonna be close- especially SE part of the county. Ya just never know where these little parts fall into place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: That mix is really gonna make a run at us. Either way, we all get a front end thump and hopefully NO RAIN. We are riding that sleet line hard! How nice would it be to be watching this from Toronto? All snow for the canooks You ain't gonna see or be anywhere near any kind of taint and I'm sure you know this! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 The NW jogs, trend whatever you wanna call it has stopped and if anything this SLP will realize that it doesn't want to ride into that kind Frigid airmass but rather why not head or better yet make the damn transfer just a bit sooner, lol! I've seen crazier things happen while living in Jersey City for the first 25yrs of my life. Talk about gut wrenching busts, and back then we only had the ETA, NGM and another that started with a M. The ETA was an awesome model especially when coupled with the EURO of old, WOW, what a combo! When they locked on, man did they, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 20 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Pretty solid imo.. Dare I ask for the high end bro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Lol..High end wasn't updated.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Low end was.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxNoob Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Always seems like sleet and taint end up pushing more north than forecasted with these sort of setups as they play out. Just hoping to see some impressive rates before that happens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Low end was.. Interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Good chance I may be sitting just north of the mix line or it may get me to lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1st flakes are flying here in Bridgeport Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 8 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: The NW jogs, trend whatever you wanna call it has stopped and if anything this SLP will realize that it doesn't want to ride into that kind Frigid airmass but rather why not head or better yet make the damn transfer just a bit sooner, lol! I've seen crazier things happen while living in Jersey City for the first 25yrs of my life. Talk about gut wrenching busts, and back then we only had the ETA, NGM and another that started with a M. The ETA was an awesome model especially when coupled with the EURO of old, WOW, what a combo! When they locked on, man did they, lol! Ha! The old ETA! Or how about the AVN? I think ETA only went out 48 hours? I remember some heart breaking busts. I hope you’re right about this coming in colder. I’ve got a bunch of contrarian thoughts flying through my mind. I’m really hoping the Canadian and EURO have this locked down. Hard to discount GEFS and NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Its only one frame, 3hrs but this isn't very promising as the snow growth region is virtually nonexistent while we're flirting with IP/FZRN and its not a shallow layer either so lets hope this all changes by this evening! One promising note is the Omega is decent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Good chance I may be sitting just north of the mix line or it may get me to lol There’s that transfer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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