TugHillMatt Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 hour ago, 96blizz said: All good Matt. I really appreciate your level headed response. Apologies I snapped a bit at you. That wasn’t necessary or warranted. Let it snow (and maybe sleet?)! Thanks. All good. Peace! Now...let it snow! (And how dare you speak that sleet into existence for Onondaga!) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Looks like the batch of precip for tday is basically a few showers, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I just heard from emergency services in Texas that more than 2 million are with out power in the state at this moment. Can you imagine being in a state that has zero winterizing in their homes? It could be a disaster down there. Wow already. They got another storm coming too after this one. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Rap model 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Let's hope the High(s) to the north stay more stubborn and don't run away like little prisses afraid to get their hands dirty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 16 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Thanks. All good. Peace! Now...let it snow! (And how dare you speak that sleet into existence for Onondaga!) I think the heavy rates will deliver overnight and the pingers or snizzle will only happen once it’s close to done toward early morning tomorrow. You’re in a better spot as every mile NW matters on this one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 19 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I just heard from emergency services in Texas that more than 2 million are with out power in the state at this moment. Can you imagine being in a state that has zero winterizing in their homes? It could be a disaster down there. Water pipes will be bursting everywhere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, 96blizz said: I think the heavy rates will deliver overnight and the pingers or snizzle will only happen once it’s close to done toward early morning tomorrow. You’re in a better spot as every mile NW matters on this one. Agreed 100%. SYR looks good for 9", which is KBGM's forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Oh there it is, lol, in E.OH- W PA and its headed this way but it looks like its mainly light snow that'll last a few hrs at best! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, CNY-LES FREAK said: Oh there it is, lol, in E.OH- W PA and its headed this way but it looks like its mainly light snow that'll last a few hrs at best! Yep that’s correct. The first wave is going to amount to dandruff on your shoulders, it’s the second wave that means business 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2021 Author Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Hrrr says enjoy a little sleet and freezing rain lol Albeit at the tail end which is plausible.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2021 Author Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Hrrr says enjoy a little sleet and freezing rain lol Over before most wake up. No choice but to stay up tonight and Jeb Walk with a cold IPA or 4. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 What is the deal with lows coming up through western NY this year? Been pretty consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Based on viewing some upstream data, I feel somewhat confident that the models will tic back southeast with the snow/sleet line for late tonight...fingers crossed! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, 96blizz said: Over before most wake up. No choice but to stay up tonight and Jeb Walk with a cold IPA or 4. I am assuming you had 1 or 12 last night? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: I am assuming you had 1 or 12 last night? Yeah man. A few. But my Mom has been in the ICU for 10 days after heart failure for reasons they’ve yet to figure out - so my snappiness comes from a place deeper than a few cold ones. If saying a prayer is your thing, we could use it! These back to back storms have been a welcome mental distraction for me. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, 96blizz said: Yeah man. A few. But my Mom has been in the ICU for 10 days after heart failure for reasons they’ve yet to figure out - so my snappiness comes from a place deeper than a few cold ones. If saying a prayer is your thing, we could use it! These back to back storms have been a welcome mental distraction for me. It certainly is. Lifting you, your mom, and family up. It's a good reminder that there are certainly more valuable things in our lives than a few inches of snow. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 SREF fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 This matches very well with my call this weekend that the mix line will reach those higher elevations from Ithaca to Morrisville, while we stay cold enough for mostly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Pretty much the warmest frame on the NAM.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Nam initialized sn/sleet line wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 34 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: What is the deal with lows coming up through western NY this year? Been pretty consistent. I think lows are attracted to bodies of water. Ever notice how lp’s bounce along the east coast? How they never track over land? Same with Lake Erie and Ontario. I can’t tell ya how many times I’ve seen lows, that were expected to go over S Central PA, make a bee line for Erie and Buffalo. Hoping the high holds and the little bitty transfer takes place south of us. The other thing I usually forget (and I hate to bring it up right now) is that warm air usually advances further north and faster than expected with these situations. Especially in WNY. It just flies up the escarpment. This ones a little different in that warm air is coming from the SE- so maybe we get lucky. I’m counting on it! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 6 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: Nam initialized sn/sleet line wrong. Nice catch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 I think the SREF map Wolf posted is probably the most realistic snowfall map yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Well all I know is very rarely does a low make it that far north without mixing or at the very least dry slotting..Nam, 3k, hrrr, icon, gfs, all the members lol Plenty of evidence that we need to worry about mixing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 15 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Pretty much the warmest frame on the NAM.. 06Z was even a few ticks colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 6 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: Nam initialized sn/sleet line wrong. Watching Mike Seidel on TWC in Monroe, LA he’s still getting sleet mixing in with the snow. He’s on an overpass over I20 and about a half hour ago a heavier band moved through and precipitation went over to all snow and visibility fell to a couple hundred yards. The temperature is in the teens, normal high is low 60s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Well if the GEFS scores a coup FML lol As of now it's tossed because it seems a bit extreme.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now