Syrmax Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Euro looks generally good for the forum both storms this week. No major changes as I see it. For those riding the line of significant mix vs snow, that's going to be a Nowcast. Various models will have there own run to run variability but when you are on the fence that matters a lot.. The idea of a "secondary popping" is wrong for the first event. More likely a center jump on the model depictions as the system progresses NE. Still looks like BUF-> ROC most favored, with SYR probably hanging all SN with at worst a brief changeover to PL as storm is winding down. Late week storm looks really good on 00Z Euro. Forget the qpf panels on both storms, its the worst field usually. All in all looks about set. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 I said we'd dry slot 3 days ago when I posted the H700 maps and as quick as the models came NW, they can do the same tomorrow but the other way but the model hugging in this forum is just Nuts, lol, but it's understandable. I'd ban those Kuchie maps cause it gives us nothing but false hope and in weather, hope how's right out the window, lol!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 12 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said: So honestly there is a damn good chance the Kuchera map actually verifies or comes close. Not even close but you can keep dreaming, lol! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just woke up...checked out the Nams. Good news! Looks like they are done moving north and west. Looks like a very slight shift of the swath of snow to the South and East of previous runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 The Lake Plains of New York are looking solid on the Nams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 @Wentzadelphia, you may want to start out in the North Buffalo burbs/Niagara area, as this is where the lake will be aiding. Then, depending on how you like to travel in winter weather, work your way east towards Rochester, and then Syracuse as winds turn to the NW/WNW and lake effect kicks in off that flow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Wow. Giving some areas almost 2 feet for the week by Thursday evening as that next system comes in. Just eye candy for now: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 hours ago, BGM Blizzard said: Overall track and evolution pretty identical to 18z run, but less precip in CNY from dry slotting... 0z precip 18z precip The precip output makes absolutely no sense whatsoever so 'Im just gonna disregard these precip maps cause not once have they ever come to fruition or been right for that matter! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Unfortunately, with a H850 lp this close to our CWA, it'll be hard pressed for any real lake enhancement to really get going, except out West along the Niagara escarpment as temps are nowhere near ideal for any LE but that could change and most likely will! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Nam is off a bit down south with p-type: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Obs from TX, LA, AR are pretty much all snow...Nam no clue.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 06z HRDPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Final Call BUF 15.2” ROC 16.1” SYR 8.6” (some mixing) ALB 3.4” (mostly mix) BGM 4.5” (mostly mix) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Also not sure what model Mike Cejka was using in his newscast on channel 4 just now but it has almost 15” at BUF for this storm and he showed it running through Friday morning and it was nearly 27” at BUF! Two back to back 1 foot + synoptic storms in a week would instantly move this winter to a B+ with plenty of time left to make it an A. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 6 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: The dots are because there is a running joke that I don't do well snow-wise wherever I am. That is THE inside joke that I thought everybody was aware of. Much of the time is people TEASING me and giving me a hard time about being in the screw zone. Yes, I tend to be negative...and when people on here remind me of it, I try to dial it back. I don't just point out negatives about model runs. In fact, I have been discussing how it looks like there is a good possibility of a WNW flow this week. Does this get many responses? Perhaps part of it is people like to feed off the negative and drama as well? There are times when I try to have normal weather discussion as well. Sorry that the negativity clouds out the times when I am just chatting about the weather and funny things that pop up. All good Matt. I really appreciate your level headed response. Apologies I snapped a bit at you. That wasn’t necessary or warranted. Let it snow (and maybe sleet?)! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 46 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Also not sure what model Mike Cejka was using in his newscast on channel 4 just now but it has almost 15” at BUF for this storm and he showed it running through Friday morning and it was nearly 27” at BUF! Two back to back 1 foot + synoptic storms in a week would instantly move this winter to a B+ with plenty of time left to make it an A. Shit! I wonder why I said that Kuchera Map by weeks end might verify! 15” twice is 30” and so far we’re on track for the first part... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 hour ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Final Call BUF 15.2” ROC 16.1” SYR 8.6” (some mixing) ALB 3.4” (mostly mix) BGM 4.5” (mostly mix) The NWS also raised the amounts to 12+ for the Niagara frontier so what Mike us showing has legs...they also stated snowfall rates four approach 2” an hour overnight in meso banding and enhancement off Ontario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 PaC's are 15-20" along the south shore. Greater as you go west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Locked and loaded. Feeling good about this one. My numbers get a shave but still think someone between Roc and BUF sees 18”. Buf-14 Iag-11 Roc-15 Syr-13 Bing-5 (sorry) Pulaski-14 Geneva-12 Its a quick mover and parameters aren’t great for enhancement. Nor is wind direction. So my numbers might still be optimistic- but I like this storm. Even if it gave me 4 minor strokes yesterday. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 96blizz, where exactly are you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: 96blizz, where exactly are you? Skaneateles. West central Onondaga County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 6z ‘dynamic ratio snowfall’ not as fun as kuchie but similar idea. Most of us are good. Niagara Falls looks real good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, 96blizz said: Skaneateles. West central Onondaga County. 10” for Skaneatles is my guess Good luck. But then again, you Jack potted not long ago. Gonna be tight for a minute but I wouldn’t be surprised to see you stay all snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: 10” for Skaneatles is my guess Good luck. But then again, you Jack potted not long ago. Gonna be tight for a minute but I wouldn’t be surprised to see you stay all snow. We are at just about 900’ of elevation (highest of the Finger Lakes) so that does help. That said, pingers may be unavoidable for a short time. But yeah, we got like 23” in that insane death band so I am all for spreading the wealth. My concern is that this moves so fast we don’t see many flakes on Tuesday though the lake may fire up and catch us overnight Tuesday into Wednesday for a cake topper. Including that I think 10” is doable. Def happy to see ROC cash in a bit more this time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 The next storm looking great on gfs. With a big lake snow potential after Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 After next storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 3 hours ago, LakeEffectKing said: Nam is off a bit down south with p-type: On another note... WOW! When was the last time we've seen a radar with precip., much of it snow nonetheless, from the Gulf to Canada?! Refreshing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, tim123 said: The next storm looking great on gfs. With a big lake snow potential after This is no doubt the 2015 Redux. We all needed this after the first half of this winter shit the bed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 That v shape to the snow in texas looks convective. Almost like how severe weather you look at a satalite in texas in summer looks exactly the same. Really strong convergence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, tim123 said: That v shape to the snow in texas looks convective. Almost like how severe weather you look at a satalite in texas in summer looks exactly the same. Really strong convergence. I just heard from emergency services in Texas that more than 2 million are with out power in the state at this moment. Can you imagine being in a state that has zero winterizing in their homes? It could be a disaster down there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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