Thinksnow18 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 The #’s just keep rising. I was just watching, for all you Buffalo folk, Channel 23 (sister station of channel 4) and Don Paul is filling in this whole week for Todd Santos. Don has up to 15” Buffalo and north as a jackpot an average of 10-12” Buffalo north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 SREF Roc: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, vortmax said: SREF Roc: I'm assuming that's 10:1 ratio? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2021 Author Share Posted February 15, 2021 Houston we have a problem, GFS way NW. Even I have to worry about a mix now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2021 Author Share Posted February 15, 2021 GFS goes about 100 miles NW from previous runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2021 Author Share Posted February 15, 2021 Embrace the yearly trend, last second NW shifts of 100-200 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Another bump NW on GFS. This is going to be out of New York state by tomorrow. lol Why don't they ever lock in for us for several days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Point forecast has increased to 8-16” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2021 Author Share Posted February 15, 2021 You guys all said something about last minute SE shifts? That hasn't happened in quite awhile. Like I said earlier, it always goes further NW then modeled last minute. (At least this season has) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: GFS goes about 100 miles NW from previous runs Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: GFS goes about 100 miles NW from previous runs buy 1 get 1 free. Sale going on now..... 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2021 Author Share Posted February 15, 2021 Rain up to SYR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Embrace the yearly trend, last second NW shifts of 100-200 miles. I warned everybody yesterday and got torn to pieces. Ridiculous winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2021 Author Share Posted February 15, 2021 Para looks a little better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, TugHillMatt said: I warned everybody yesterday and got torn to pieces. Ridiculous winter. yup great call dude. And I was ridiculed and was told that Geneva was in a great spot. "Middle of the swath" they said. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Time to dust off correlation coefficient.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, wolfie09 said: Time to dust off correlation coefficient.. Time to go with 10:1 ratios 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, TugHillMatt said: Time to go with 10:1 ratios I thought rain was 1:1 ratio? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, lakeeffectkid383 said: I thought rain was 1:1 ratio? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Para Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 8 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Para I seriously think the GFS is out to lunch and if we see the GGEM or the EURO follow suit, then we're toast, lol, but I ain't throwing in the towel just yet! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2021 Author Share Posted February 15, 2021 I still pretty good where I'm at, pretty far west. I'll take the risk of riding the taint line to get the good QPF and heaviest snow rates. But any last minute ticks and we will have to worry even here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 I was pretty sure the forum was safe on this one. Unbelievable. The LP actually started out (a week ago) waaay off the coast. It must’ve moved 500 miles at this point. Gotta love weather. Ya just never know! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 I think ROC is still OK, but we're out of margin for error at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2021 Author Share Posted February 15, 2021 GEM farthest north it gets 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SyracuseStorm Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: GEM farthest north it gets We ride this one and tell all the other models to piss off! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SyracuseStorm Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 23 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Rain up to SYR? Toss it...but if it rains in Cuse, it would be a cherry on top of the winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 I think we're still in good shape but any further N&W and we're done but I think we'll see it start to level out or tick back S&E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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