BGM Blizzard Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 12z EPS for Thur-Fri... Following the OP, noticeable reduction/SE shift in precip and snowfall mean but still a nice look for this far out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 18 minutes ago, tim123 said: Why do you think it may verify? Ofcourse lake snow mixed in will help that. Simply due to this first storm producing from 12-15” from the Niagara Frontier to Rochester and the western Finger Lakes. The second system might be in the 8-10” level so if you high end those then some locales will get close to that mark...then add in the lake effect and viola. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 49 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Doesn't get much better than that around here. First storm I’m guessing that light pink on the second map from the bottom is 10-15”? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Not to be wet blanket but there’s no chance kuchera total snowfall maps verify. None. They never have. I’d be psyched with half of that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Literally entire state of Texas has a winter storm warning. Oklahoma and Arkansas. Too. When do you ever see that? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SyracuseStorm Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 7 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I’m guessing that light pink on the second map from the bottom is 10-15”? Yeah- written in white so it is blended with pink 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: Not to be wet blanket but there’s no chance kuchera total snowfall maps verify. None. They never have. I’d be psyched with half of that. Well there was also no chance at Antonio Brown, Leonard Fornette and Rob Gronkowski all scoring TD’s in the super bowl after being in jail, cut from the Jaguars and in the WWE all in order last spring...there’s always a chance 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, tim123 said: Literally entire state of Texas has a winter storm warning. Oklahoma and Arkansas. Too. When do you ever see that? I’ll take Never for 2000 Ken 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 LR HRRR pretty far N/W as well..No mixing concerns verbatim for C/W NY.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Hrrr sure likes Chicago for lake snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Pretty good consensus wrt precip, 3/4"-1" liquid region wide on almost all guidance.. Enjoy and stop stressing over exact numbers lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Who wants to gamble KBUF wet blankets the forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: Who wants to gamble KBUF wet blankets the forecast I count on it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Yep even though every model, map and outside forecast shows high amounts they will hedge lower, I mean this is the same group that called for a few inches just 3 days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, Thinksnow18 said: Yep even though every model, map and outside forecast shows high amounts they will hedge lower, I mean this is the same group that called for a few inches just 3 days ago They have my p+c for Monday night 4-7”. Correction: 3-7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 29 minutes ago, tim123 said: Literally entire state of Texas has a winter storm warning. Oklahoma and Arkansas. Too. When do you ever see that? Houston and New Orleans. It's insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Who wants to gamble KBUF wet blankets the forecast BGM will have a region-wide "Winter Storm Warning" for "3 to 15 inches mixed with ice" from Scranton to Syracuse. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Depends on ratios.. It's only 7"-10" region wide at 10-1.. They check soundings not Kuchera..So we'll see I guess lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 hour ago, BGM Blizzard said: 10:1 Kuchera Ku-chow! 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 NAM already correcting. Gonna be S and E of 12z. Shocking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Depends on ratios.. It's only 7"-10" region wide at 10-1.. They check soundings not Kuchera..So we'll see I guess lol You mean to tell me the NWS doesn’t use Kuchera?!?! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 We've had our pre-pre game snowfall all day here in the Syracuse area. Probably the cloudiest day of this month with light snow falling all day. The heaviest of the day has been falling the last hour. Looks like the NW winds have brought sunshine to Buffalo and even Rochester? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 8 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: They have my p+c for Monday night 4-7”. Correction: 3-7 Same here! In fact WTF is taking them so long to pull the trigger?! This is how I know they’re going low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SyracuseStorm Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 12 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Who wants to gamble KBUF wet blankets the forecast KBUF and KBGH have almost identical discussions- maybe they are identical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 NAM is def gonna have higher totals for most or all than 12z! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, 96blizz said: You mean to tell me the NWS doesn’t use Kuchera?!?! Yes but no one else or models NOT Kuchera are saying much more, just ask the 12z Euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: Same here! In fact WTF is taking them so long to pull the trigger?! This is how I know they’re going low. Maybe waiting to see if the NAM corrects? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, 96blizz said: NAM is def gonna have higher totals for most or all than 12z! Even Baldwinsville? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Solid hit for all. WSW for 8-14" coming this afternoon update. Wrong. Weak sauce 6-11” lmao. Not that I care what NWS says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, TugHillMatt said: Maybe waiting to see if the NAM corrects? It’s correcting but never fully in one run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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