Thinksnow18 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, tim123 said: Rap looks like hi rez can has 15 inches in roc at hr 51. Still snowing at end Tim I think it was you that said upstate could be under 2-4 feet after Friday. I can’t remember a time this was possible. It appears the 12z GFS has moved even further east for Thursday and Friday and almost has all of WNY all snow the entire time. I expect this change to continue and move closer to the Euro model. What a time. And I may be upping my Buffalo totals to 15”. The western finger lakes to the Niagara frontier are beginning to look like the bullseye for this first storm Monday night Tuesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 16 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: For Matt... Just jinxed the poor guy posting that. lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Just jinxed the poor guy posting that. lol He is the JINX, rlmao! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Only downside is that we’ve lost some of the parameters for big help from Ontario. I’ll probably have to shave a few inches off my ridiculous guesses. I’ll wait for later runs before posting final stabs in the dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 Maybe we can get some mesocale banding going overnight monday into Tuesday, whoever gets in those bands will get higher totals. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Hi rez Canadian extrapolated would probally be 15 to 20 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Tim I think it was you that said upstate could be under 2-4 feet after Friday. I can’t remember a time this was possible. It appears the 12z GFS has moved even further east for Thursday and Friday and almost has all of WNY all snow the entire time. I expect this change to continue and move closer to the Euro model. What a time. And I may be upping my Buffalo totals to 15”. The western finger lakes to the Niagara frontier are beginning to look like the bullseye for this first storm Monday night Tuesday. HRDPS QPF and snowfall at 10:1 looks like a I-90 special from BUF to SYR. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, lakeeffectkid383 said: HRDPS QPF and snowfall at 10:1 looks like a I-90 special from BUF to SYR. There is no special, it's the entire forum special. Literally perfect track for all of us. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 hour ago, LakeEffectKing said: If there is ambient moisture around, the frictional convergence mechanisms with a frozen lake, (with still some 10 -20% unfrozen) along with orographic lifting, can still drop some significant snows. There have been quite a few events with 12"+ totals with 80% ice coverage off Erie. There is far less ice than I thought was on the lake, taken today. That's like 50% covered, not 80% like the charts are showing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 I’m guessing the NWS upgrades in the next 2 hours at the 2:30-3:00 update. Erie Pa is already under a warning so it’s close. My early guess I’d the NWS goes 10-16 accumulation fir the duration of tomorrow through Tuesday am with the higher amounts as you move north of the 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankees102110 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: There is no special, it's the entire forum special. Literally perfect track for all of us. Not all of us. Some of us are in eastern Upstate NY and are getting a sleet fest. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 Back to back storms. I thought the 2nd one was going to drop more QPF, but looking like first one might. Still a ways out. https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, yankees102110 said: Not all of us. Some of us are in eastern Upstate NY and are getting a sleet fest. True, but you guys have jackpotted every snowstorm this year and already above seasonal averages. Our turn. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, Thinksnow18 said: I’m guessing the NWS upgrades in the next 2 hours at the 2:30-3:00 update. Erie Pa is already under a warning so it’s close. My early guess I’d the NWS goes 10-16 accumulation fir the duration of tomorrow through Tuesday am with the higher amounts as you move north of the 90 BGM is currently 6-9” (although their own maps don’t match that) so I can’t see them going that high. I see them going 8-12” with the CYA of “locally higher amounts” 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 Live stream from Reed Timmer chasing. That guy has my dream life. https://www.facebook.com/reedtimmer2.0/videos/938682490209316/?notif_id=1613275732467286¬if_t=live_video&ref=notif 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: There have been quite a few events with 12"+ totals with 80% ice coverage off Erie. There is far less ice than I thought was on the lake, taken today. That's like 50% covered, not 80% like the charts are showing. I'm surprised how unfrozen it is given the sustained cold... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: I'm surprised how unfrozen it is given the sustained cold... I'm actually shocked at how little ice is on there. Must have been some upwelling or something last few days. Sometimes wind can do that, but I don't think its been that windy. I really don't know. The only locked ice is NW of Cleveland in the shallow waters there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 It's close to going solid. Lots of slush ice i am sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankees102110 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: True, but you guys have jackpotted every snowstorm this year and already above seasonal averages. Our turn. Not here, I’ve had 20 inches since the December storm. My seasonal average is around 90 and I’m at 58 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, yankees102110 said: Not here, I’ve had 20 inches since the December storm. My seasonal average is around 90 and I’m at 58 Where are you located? Albany and Binghamton are already above seasonal normals. (Albanys close) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 Was wondering why GFS was showing LES next week with a frozen lake, not so frozen. Could be surprise event, depending on track of 2nd low. WSW winds off Erie and W/WNW off Ontario. (modeling takes into factor ice coverage) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankees102110 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Where are you located? Albany and Binghamton are already above seasonal normals. (Albanys close) I’m like 50 miles NW of Albany and 50 miles east of Utica. I’m not bitter, I hope you guys do get it. It just seems like sometimes people forget on this forum that there is members out this way. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Going to be an important Euro run. I'll post individual surface frames as they come out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, yankees102110 said: I’m like 50 miles NW of Albany and 50 miles east of Utica. I’m not bitter, I hope you guys do get it. It just seems like sometimes people forget on this forum that there is members out this way. Your out in middle of nowhere ny 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Going to be an important Euro run. I'll post individual surface frames as they come out... Can you post hi rez Canadian snow map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, yankees102110 said: I’m like 50 miles NW of Albany and 50 miles east of Utica. I’m not bitter, I hope you guys do get it. It just seems like sometimes people forget on this forum that there is members out this way. Near Amsterdam? Lower Adirondack region? You missed that first storm jackpot by a few miles. I see why you're slightly below average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, tim123 said: Can you post hi rez Canadian snow map? 10:1 Kuchera 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 Euro coming a little NW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 12z Euro H36... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now