Ericjcrash Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Lol, the second storm which looked likely to cut may end up producing more than the "lock" Monday and Tuesday out here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Storm 1 cmc 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Some of these big dog models should relax us, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 On 2/14/2021 at 4:31 PM, tim123 said: Erie has to almost completely frozen. Can still get lake snow but mitigates threat. Expand If there is ambient moisture around, the frictional convergence mechanisms with a frozen lake, (with still some 10 -20% unfrozen) along with orographic lifting, can still drop some significant snows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 On 2/14/2021 at 3:35 PM, yankees102110 said: This is going to be close for areas around me. Not many people on this board from my region. This is the RGEM Expand It's just us out here.... hopefully we get a tick SE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 As of now NWS going with the"colder" solution.. Thursday Snow likely, mainly after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 30. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Thursday Night Snow. Low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Friday Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 On 2/14/2021 at 4:37 PM, rochesterdave said: Some of these big dog models should relax us, no? Expand Yeah...Nam certainly gets squirrelly now and then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Cmc having a rocking run today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 The NAM had the whole I 95 crew freaking out with the big one only to correct itself and move towards consensus guidance the last day. It’s over amped bias should strongly be considered here as each subsequent model seems to be close to holding serve. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Cmc both storms before lake snow after second storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Well... I'm glad I fell asleep early last night before getting around to drawing up a first guess at snowfall amounts. Figured atleast the BGM to ALB corridor might get screwed by a NW shift but this is quickly starting to look like a BUF cwa special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 UKIE certainly not buying any far NW solution 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SyracuseStorm Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 On 2/14/2021 at 4:49 PM, BGM Blizzard said: Well... I'm glad I fell asleep early last night before getting around to drawing up a first guess at snowfall amounts. Figured the BGM to ALB corridor might get screwed by a NW shift but this is quickly starting to look like a BUF cwa special. Expand It’s typical ping pong...we have seen this before. I would expect ticks SE today to bring us back closer to last nights models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Ukie i believe counts sleet freezing rain as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 On 2/14/2021 at 4:56 PM, tim123 said: Ukie i believe counts sleet freezing rain as snow. Expand Clearly but the NW extent of the snow tells me it’s no NAM! Need to see precip frames which I don’t have. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Cmc after lake snow from storm 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Full UKIE run. Looks good for storm 2 as well (all 10:1). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 CMC Kuchie with ongoing LES... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 On 2/14/2021 at 4:27 PM, LakeEffectKing said: And also off Erie.... Expand Screw Erie! 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 On 2/14/2021 at 4:55 PM, 96blizz said: UKIE certainly not buying any far NW solution Expand It has been consistently the furthest SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 On 2/14/2021 at 5:04 PM, Syrmax said: Screw Erie! Expand Be nice...tis the day of love! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 For Matt... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 On 2/14/2021 at 5:14 PM, LakeEffectKing said: For Matt... Expand I know! I was JUST thinking that I am the most excited I've been all winter (I know...wouldn't take much for that ) for a combination of synoptic and lake effect/enhanced snows. It's about time N. Onondaga catches up to the south towns of the county. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 On 2/14/2021 at 5:14 PM, LakeEffectKing said: For Matt... Expand You didn’t just do that. Lol He is up. That’s for sure 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 High rez Canadian.. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Watch. The EURO is going to be great. We’ll all breathe a sigh of relief. Followed by 18z NAM with sleet to the lake and I’ll be back in the basement looking for my length of rope. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 On 2/14/2021 at 5:21 PM, wolfie09 said: High rez Canadian.. Expand Brings a tear 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Rap looks like hi rez can has 15 inches in roc at hr 51. Still snowing at end 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 On 2/14/2021 at 5:21 PM, wolfie09 said: High rez Canadian.. Expand Sniff sniff... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Rapid refresh model 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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