CNYWeather Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2.1" in Westmoreland. 1/4" of ice and the tube melted down 0.50" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 What about Kuchera? I’m assuming you’re referring to the lesser known and used Mexican equivalent. La Cu Cuchara or “Cuchara” for short. You got there before I edited itSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: That had nothing to do with it lol All those weenie maps were when the storm was cold lol Once the models starting push the warmth north Kuchera was less than 10-1 at times.. The track changes Kuchera changes lol Not to mention we didn't get the amount of precip most guidance had.. My final ratio was 5.9:1. I never saw any Cucaracha maps with ratios that low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, CNY-LES FREAK said: You got there before I edited it Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk I know. Just having fun while we all commiserate... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Not true here. Kuchie still had 13-15” here off of .8-1.0” LE. I had .92” LE and only 6.6” of snow. Less than half of the Kuchie totals... Yeah but how many of those models had you mixing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, Syrmax said: My final ratio was 5.9:1. I never saw any Cucaracha maps with ratios that low. The ICON had these ratios nailed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 Storm totals. I think highest was Niagara Falls with 9.5" https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=PNS&issuedby=BUF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 How do you rename the title back to back Sleet storms? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Yeah but how many of those models had you mixing? None but even if we didn’t mix there’s no way we would have come close to those Kuchie totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, wolfie09 said: Yeah but how many of those models had you mixing? Kuchera maps will work in Lake effect and maybe in pure mid level def/fronto well nw of a surface low. Elsewhere theyre just shit. Regardless, some weenie will post them again for the next one only to have their soul crushed come verification. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, 96blizz said: The ICON had these ratios nailed. How ironic and Iconic. To be fair, ICON was probably the first to sniff out trouble was brewing. We scoffed at it of course. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just trying to cheer up freak, granted the HRRR sucks ass..They all suck Wolfie, lol!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 I thought kuchera would have made sense with temps in the high teens for this storm. A humbling experience. That warm tongue moved farther NW which increased the temperature aloft to above freezing. Even KBUF in their discussion was shocked the mixing line made it that far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Kuchera maps will work in Lake effect and maybe in pure mid level def/fronto well nw of a surface low. Elsewhere theyre just shit. Regardless, some weenie will post them again for the next one only to have their soul crushed come verification. with temps in the high teens/ low 20s for this storm you think they would work out ok, but the atmosphere temps were a different story. They were well above freezing way up into the snow growth zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 5 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Eyeballing a good 4"-5" otg.. Have managed to stay away from mixing so far but we are hardly seeing any precip lol..We should see the return of some wrap around moisture later this afternoon.. Same. As soon as I went to bed, I heard the pinging. Woke up at 3ish and didn't hear anything. Looked outside and didn't look like it was doing much at all. Definitely had some freezing drizzle and the car windows have a little layer of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 That had nothing to do with it lol All those weenie maps were when the storm was cold lol Once the models started pushing the warmth north Kuchera was less than 10-1 at times.. The track changes Kuchera changes lol Not to mention we didn't get the amount of precip most guidance had..Well they suck anywaySent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 This was the nam yesterday morning after briefly starting 10/1-12/1.. Keep in mind the NAM was to cold verbatim.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: I thought kuchera would have made sense with temps in the high teens for this storm. A humbling experience. That warm tongue moved farther NW which increased the temperature aloft to above freezing. Even KBUF in their discussion was shocked the mixing line made it that far north. Idk about there but here the temps were 24-26 degrees the entire event. We never got even close to as cold as was forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, lakeeffectkid383 said: Idk about there but here the temps were 24-26 degrees the entire event. We never got even close to as cold as was forecast. Still way below freezing. Ratios should not have been 1:6-1:8 unless we got the warm air aloft causing mixing. Toledo got over a foot, the storm went 150 miles further NW then modeled a day before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: with temps in the high teens/ low 20s for this storm you think they would work out ok, but the atmosphere temps were a different story. They were well above freezing way up into the snow growth zone. Kuchera algorithm does not know where the rh or the omega or the snow production is in the sounding. That's why they often fail. In mixing scenarios, even the 10:1 maps that people post often include sleet. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 4 hours ago, SyracuseStorm said: Well- is the ICON the preferred model of choice now? I am shocked to hear the totals and the current conditions. Lake effect will save us this week IMO because I am throwing out all models. Will start doing my own weather charting and going to enlist the Native American’s in Onondaga to teach me how they predicted weather for the past 100’s of years. If the pull out the Farmers Almanac, I am literally going to start crying. Lol...we actually didn't do "too" bad here in Lysander compared to other places that busted BADLY. I mean we only got half of what was predicted...but I think I'm becoming acclimated to this being the norm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 11 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: We got 4 inches of sleet snow here. I’m melting down a core now to see the SWE. Snow on the ground is now a super thick and dense 12 inches. I don’t think this last 4 inches will compact one bit. Very true, the snowpack will be more resilient after this Portland Cement deposition. Which isn't a bad thing. We all got taken for a ride on this storm, even the pros. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, OSUmetstud said: Kuchera algorithm does not know where the rh or the omega or the snow production is in the sounding. That's why they often fail. In mixing scenarios, even the 10:1 maps that people post often include sleet. This answers the question, thank you! I thought pivotal factored in mixing, I knew tidbits doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: Still way below freezing. Ratios should not have been 1:6-1:8 unless we got the warm air aloft causing mixing. I should have taken a core sample before we mixed because I garuntee the snow needles and sugar grains that were falling was also probably damn near close to 7:1. Just so dense and heavy it was insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 I'm here for support guys. lol.. I saw it coming days ago and have already grieved. I'm good. Remain Calm. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Not for nothing but this storm as it was coming up the coast had a low level jet of almost 60 knots so if we didn't see the writing on the wall it's pretty much on us because the maps were there to show usSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 with temps in the high teens/ low 20s for this storm you think they would work out ok, but the atmosphere temps were a different story. They were well above freezing way up into the snow growth zone. No they were not I actually posted a few soundings and that was not the case at all? The snow growth region flies within negative 12c and -17 c so that's pretty much impossible. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 8 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Kuchera maps will work in Lake effect and maybe in pure mid level def/fronto well nw of a surface low. Elsewhere theyre just shit. Regardless, some weenie will post them again for the next one only to have their soul crushed come verification. Well to be fair we aren't forecasters, this is a hobby/fun for us..If people want to get butt hurt that's their own fault.. I'm not the one begging for european WB Kuchera maps everyday lol.. Which by the way is 10 times worse then PW.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Everyone on this board is guilty of it minus a select few.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 8 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Kuchera algorithm does not know where the rh or the omega or the snow production is in the sounding. That's why they often fail. In mixing scenarios, even the 10:1 maps that people post often include sleet. A day or so before the storm, one of our forum regulars, @CNY-LES FREAK posted a model sounding, i forget which one, and it showed a mismatch between Omega and the DGZ...which gave me pause but even then it wasn't showing the warmth up above at all. But...it was accurate in that dendrite size/type was more "needly" and sub-optimal. Which made me think the Cucaracha's were going to bust. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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