TugHillMatt Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Juat measured... still all snow and 3.5" thusfar. Hanging on to all snow here too...big flakes. 4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Yeah I'd be real curious to understand what happened. It wasn't as if just one model was off...and pre storm...as @OSUmetstud mentioned, one could make a case that this thing would have been shredded or even pushed SE. Yet, the exact opposite happened. Wondering if the initialization / input data was off somehow. Seems unlikely though. For as long as I can remember, models underestimate the warmth thrown northward (at many levels) when systems are west of the apps....and it happens alot, but this was extreme! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Going to bed before I hear the pingers banging against the window. Good night, weather friends! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, TugHillMatt said: Hanging on to all snow here too...big flakes. 4 inches. If we outperform BUF n ROC I'll be amazed. Bewildered but amazed. BTW our forecast has 4" tues night.. assuming that's LES.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, LakeEffectKing said: For as long as I can remember, models underestimate the warmth thrown northward (at many levels) when systems are west of the apps....and it happens alot, but this was extreme! Was maybe the issue that the slp track was wrong? IIRC, most models had the slp on the east side of the Apps...and this clearly isn't the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, Syrmax said: If we outperform BUF n ROC I'll be amazed. Bewildered but amazed. BTW our forecast has 4" tues night.. assuming that's LES.... Yeah, I saw that. Mesos trying to show some LES love. Might be one of our best shots at it this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Sleet in Cheektowaga also glad I didn’t get my hopes up on this one. On to the next one fellas.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Sleet for 20 min now look like changing back to snow in henrietta at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, ayuud11 said: Sleet in Cheektowaga also glad I didn’t get my hopes up on this one. On to the next one fellas.. Noticed you were absent. Good for you! Wasn’t worth it- trust me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, Syrmax said: Was maybe the issue that the slp track was wrong? IIRC, most models had the slp on the east side of the Apps...and this clearly isn't the case. Well, the issue (post mortem) was 2 fold. I think it is just difficult for the models to handle slp placement when upper levels support an slp on top of the mountains...then/if models do resolve the correct lp placement (in this case to the west) they seem to way underdo the warm air advection. All IMO, of course. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Am I dreaming or is this real? Fell asleep to heavy snow and wake up 3 hours later with about an inch more on the ground then when I fell asleep and heavy sleet. Lmao. What a freaking bust. No model had sleet getting even close to here. Congrats Toronto? (Again) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 So much for the early to bed early to rise idea. Can’t sleep at all right now with the window pings... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 This hobby humbles us all.... 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 10 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: So much for the early to bed early to rise idea. Can’t sleep at all right now with the window pings... Dude what a joke. Like I seriously feel like I’m just dreaming right now. Every single model had 10” + here minimum. Looks like 2 inches eyeballing it and straight sleet. Easily the worst bust of the season. Models are absolutely horrible. LEK is right, it is humbling to think your locked and loaded just hours before the event or as it unfolds and to be totally and completely wrong. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Updated thickness lines 0600Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 9 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Dude what a joke. Like I seriously feel like I’m just dreaming right now. Every single model had 10” + here minimum. Looks like 2 inches eyeballing it and straight sleet. Easily the worst bust of the season. Models are absolutely horrible. LEK is right, it is humbling to think your locked and loaded just hours before the event or as it unfolds and to be totally and completely wrong. Wow. Bust potential def seemed within the realm of possibility for CNY over the past 24-36 hours, but you are right, WNY seemed like a lock for atleast 8+. Ridiculous. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Absolutely pounding sleet right. Feels like the house is getting full on bead Blasted. It’ll make a great base though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 We are officially full pinging. 4" snowfall so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 We’re now into the massive dry a lot here. We could be pretty much done with precip for the event here as the storm moves off to the NE and all the precip stays to our NW. Top 3 bust all time for me. Unbelievably horrible storm here. Schools should never have closed. The streets will be down to bare pavement by 5 am lmfao! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 hour ago, rochesterdave said: Noticed you were absent. Good for you! Wasn’t worth it- trust me. Got tired of models letting me down bro had to take a break lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 16 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: We’re now into the massive dry a lot here. We could be pretty much done with precip for the event here as the storm moves off to the NE and all the precip stays to our NW. Top 3 bust all time for me. Unbelievably horrible storm here. Schools should never have closed. The streets will be down to bare pavement by 5 am lmfao! lol I knew those kuchera maps were good to be true every other storm weenies fall for that shit haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just went outside with the dog. Heavy freezing rain and temp of 30. We have about an inch and a half of crust (mostly sleet). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Eyeballing a good 4"-5" otg.. Have managed to stay away from mixing so far but we are hardly seeing any precip lol..We should see the return of some wrap around moisture later this afternoon.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SyracuseStorm Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Well- is the ICON the preferred model of choice now? I am shocked to hear the totals and the current conditions. Lake effect will save us this week IMO because I am throwing out all models. Will start doing my own weather charting and going to enlist the Native American’s in Onondaga to teach me how they predicted weather for the past 100’s of years. If the pull out the Farmers Almanac, I am literally going to start crying. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Wow. Dogs woke me up (not the kids for once) at 5. It didn’t take 10 seconds to see we busted. I didn’t hear the pingers but judging the sugary texture of the “snow” I can see it made it this far north as well...so the next system for Thursday night-Friday is modeled along the east coast...look out Toronto!!! This is your storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just eyeballing out the 2nd story I’d be surprised we have 5 inches. Absolute joke of a storm. Everything that could go wrong did. Atrocious flake size from the get go, then sleet for the entire night, along with multiple dry patches moving through cutting off precip completely for an hour or more at a time. Precip is already done for the storm too. Just an absolute BUST of a storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 I’d say ~6” of the densest non wet snow I’ve ever seen. Felt like sand. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 45 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Just eyeballing out the 2nd story I’d be surprised we have 5 inches. Absolute joke of a storm. Everything that could go wrong did. Atrocious flake size from the get go, then sleet for the entire night, along with multiple dry patches moving through cutting off precip completely for an hour or more at a time. Precip is already done for the storm too. Just an absolute BUST of a storm. Yeah I measured 6.1” of just sugar snow...what could’ve been... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Looks like 3-4" here in Hannibal. At one point during the night i thought my bedroom windows were gonna shatter from all the pinging lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now