TugHillMatt Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 I think my call of 3 to 6 inches for this area is looking solid. Wish it was more, but..what can you do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said: Did you feel the snow in your bare hands. It literally feels like sugar.... same texture Have you changed over? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Well, this says a lot...I cant get the other displays such as the mixing lines on SPCs website on an android phone as their website is godawful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Have you changed over? CC map says I have but ground observations tell a different tale. hanging on to snow for dear life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Pouring snow in roc looks like 4 inches so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, SnowLover22 said: CC map says I have but ground observations tell a different tale. hanging on to snow for dear life. Yeah. I’m under yellows in far SE Monroe county and all snow. Heavy snow. Hoping to hang on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just crushing it right now. Huge flakes! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Sheets of pingers in NE Buffalo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said: CC map says I have but ground observations tell a different tale. hanging on to snow for dear life. Penn Yan just went over to sleet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Mesoscale Discussion 0098 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0706 PM CST Mon Feb 15 2021 Areas affected...Western into northern New York Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 160106Z - 160630Z SUMMARY...Heavy snow is expected to develop in the vicinity of the Canadian border in western and northern New York this evening, most likely by 9-10 PM EST. Snowfall rates of 1+ inch an hour are possible. DISCUSSION...A potent shortwave trough is currently moving northeastward out of eastern Kentucky and southern Ohio per water vapor imagery. As this feature continues into the Northeast this evening, a surface cyclone will deepen in Pennsylvania and New England. 850-700 hPa frontogenetical lift along the Canadian border aided by approaching mid-level ascent will promote 1+ inch per hour snowfall rates this evening. An area of heavier precipitation in northeastern Ohio will likely enter western New York by 9-10 PM EST. A stronger warm nose (nearly +4 C) observed on the 00Z PBZ sounding has kept precipitation more mixed to the south, but the observed 00Z BUF sounding shows a profile fully supportive of snow. Warm advection in the low to mid-levels should remain weak enough thaat precipitation remains as snow. Peak snowfall rates appear likely in the 11 PM to 3 AM EST period when mid-level ascent in the dendritic growth layer will be maximized. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 IP+ in Caz. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Yep. And just went to sleet. . Bustalicious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: Penn Yan just went over to sleet. That observation is inaccurate. I am south of Penn Yan and snow and sleet mixed. 80% snow still. Edit: Ignore I am north of Penn Yan makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, SnowLover22 said: That observation is inaccurate. I am south of Penn Yan and snow and sleet mixed. 80% snow still. The airport observation is reporting UP which is usually sleet. Could be a mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Looks like the WSI radar needs some tweeking.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Okay just changed to all sleet. 5-6 hours ahead of schedule. My 2-4 inch call is looking great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Here's what I was looking for on SPC site. We are all going over soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, Syrmax said: Here's what I was looking for on SPC site. We are all going over soon. Wow....insane!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 ICON totally nailed this storm. Caught onto the NW shifts first. Followed by the old GFS. EURO (which has sucked this winter) caught on late. UKIE and Canadian never saw it. I never saw it. NWS never saw it. Not that I’m comparing myself to them. just a huge bust. 3”. 1/7th of my original (and ridiculous) Rochester jackpot #. Less than half of BUFS 10% low end. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 8 hours ago, SnowLover22 said: Final Call Rochester: 10" 8" 3" Syracuse: 7" 2" Binghamton: 3 .40" ice accretion Geneva: 4-5 inches 3inches Buffalo: 14 inches 6 inches (most likely jackpot) Fixed*** 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, Syrmax said: Here's what I was looking for on SPC site. We are all going over soon. Just nuts. I can’t remember a bust this bad. Looking back- the signs were there. And we gotta stop with the kuchie madness. OSU is right to laugh. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Is this inability to get a solid, clean snowstorm a new climate thing? Or is this just normal Upstate NY patterns? I feel like it's just hard here as it was when I lived in Southern Pennsylvania! Thank goodness for lake effect...well, er...yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, rochesterdave said: ICON totally nailed this storm. Caught onto the NW shifts first. Followed by the old GFS. EURO (which has sucked this winter) caught on late. UKIE and Canadian never saw it. I never saw it. NWS never saw it. Not that I’m comparing myself to them. just a huge bust. 3”. 1/7th of my original (and ridiculous) Rochester jackpot #. Less than half of BUFS 10% low end. You are not alone my friend. This was a case where we witnessed models weaknesses.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Well, if it sleets hard enough and the rest of the night, we could all get a couple inches of that...lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 For you pack guys sleet takes forever to melt. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, LakeEffectKing said: You are not alone my friend. This was a case where we witnessed models weaknesses.... Yeah I'd be real curious to understand what happened. It wasn't as if just one model was off...and pre storm...as @OSUmetstud mentioned, one could make a case that this thing would have been shredded or even pushed SE. Yet, the exact opposite happened. Wondering if the initialization / input data was off somehow. Seems unlikely though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 We should make a list of all the cities in the south that have had a bigger purely synoptic snowstorm than Rochester and Syracuse this season. Oh, and we have Seattle and I believe Portland in there as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Juat measured... still all snow and 3.5" thusfar. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: For you pack guys sleet takes forever to melt. Sure does! I know I've told the story of my experience with 6 inches of sleet in Lancaster, PA. Stuff was a glacier that survived weeks of 40s and 50. Plus...it builds to make HUGE piles that look like you've had a foot of snow. haha I would still prefer a deep snowpack...but a preserved snowpack is also a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 My PnC still has 6" of snow and sleet tonight. Might get close if we hang on to snow another hour or two... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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