rochesterdave Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 The mix was expected in these areas. Maybe a bit ahead of scheduled but not much. IDK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 Chicago getting destroyed from Lake effect. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said: Is Elmira really already reporting freezing rain? I am only 1 hour 15 min north. Oh well.... Data at: 0200 UTC 16 Feb 2021 KELM 160153Z 05006KT 4SM -FZRA OVC016 M03/M06 A3000 RMK AO2 UPB0058E37FZRAB37 SLP171 P0002 I1001 T10331061 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: Chicago getting destroyed from Lake effect. Tim mentioned this a couple times. This is what I was hoping for a couple days ago. They’re getting what the south shore was supposed to get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, CNY_WX said: Data at: 0200 UTC 16 Feb 2021 KELM 160153Z 05006KT 4SM -FZRA OVC016 M03/M06 A3000 RMK AO2 UPB0058E37FZRAB37 SLP171 P0002 I1001 T10331061 Ugh, was hoping we might get mostly sleet in the southern tier. Do NOT want a buttload of ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Looking at the National Radar Mosaic it looks like Detroit is gonna be the sweet spot. I know it’s dangerous to project looking at radar but it sure looks like that dry slot is head straight for WNY... it’s already nearing Cleveland. Can we not sweat the dry slot when it’s still in Kentucky? Lol. We have Hours and hours of heavy snow between now and then. I’m gonna try to enjoy it! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxNoob Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Full blown freezing rain here Northeast of Ithaca 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Not good! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: Can we not sweat the dry slot when it’s still in Kentucky? Lol. We have Hours and hours of heavy snow between now and then. I’m gonna try to enjoy it! Sure just trying to post observations that I’m seeing. Flake size is still absolutely atrocious here. Literally needles and sugar grains. Maybe nearing half an inch here now and I would say it’s still light snow borderline moderate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just stepped outside. All freezing rain. Already have a glaze on the pavement. F***kkk! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 You guys aren’t kidding about Chicago. What a fantastic seeder feeder double whammy of synoptic and pure lake effect. That would be so intense. And over a massive metro area. Reed timmer should have chased that one. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Just stepped outside. All freezing rain. Already have a glaze on the pavement. F***kkk! Wow. That’s brutal. Now the question is how much ice are you going to get? Could go from disappointing to downright dangerous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMDEW80 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 6 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Just stepped outside. All freezing rain. Already have a glaze on the pavement. F***kkk! Just to let you know, down here at the border... started off freezing rain, now flipped to sleet as the heavier stuff moved in... messy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Freezing rain in Ithaca already?!? I know a couple of the models showed a very brief window of freezing rain before a flip to a heavy burst. If not...it's just another smack in the face to what's been an atrocious winter in CNY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 It’s not progressing north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 19 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Wow. That’s brutal. Now the question is how much ice are you going to get? Could go from disappointing to downright dangerous. Yeah not good. Still only 26 degrees. Ice Storm Warning might be in order. Only saving grace might be if we get can get some heavier rates to either stunt the accretion rate or possibly mix with some sleet. But it's light and steady right now and icing everything over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, BGM Blizzard said: Yeah not good. Still only 26 degrees. Ice Storm Warning might be in order. Only saving grace might be if we get poor accretion due to too heavy of precip rates. But it's light and steady right now and icing everything over. What's your snowpack depth? Rock hard glacier coming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 00z 3k NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said: What's your snowpack depth? Rock hard glacier coming. We got a solid 10-12" on the ground right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Elmira reporting UP now, prob went back to sleet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 Got our first inch here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 20 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: You guys aren’t kidding about Chicago. What a fantastic seeder feeder double whammy of synoptic and pure lake effect. That would be so intense. And over a massive metro area. Reed timmer should have chased that one. 1/4 mile visibility at Midway in +SN and 1/2 at ORD. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 11 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: 00z 3k NAM I’m starting think the QPF is right but with sugar snow we see about 6-8” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Light snow at Penn Yan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 4 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I’m starting think the QPF is right but with sugar snow we see about 6-8” Yep not a chance we see 12”+ here. This is some of the worst snow growth I’ve ever seen and it’s not getting better even with the better echos moving in. I think 6-8” sounds bout right. Definitely disappointing but should have known better than to trust any of the Kuchie numbers being spit out the last day or two. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Sleet mixing in with the ZR here now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 33 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Can we not sweat the dry slot when it’s still in Kentucky? Lol. We have Hours and hours of heavy snow between now and then. I’m gonna try to enjoy it! Furthermore, I don't even think that is the dry slot seeing as the Surface Low is south of it in Eastern TN. That's just a ragged precip shield that should fill in nicely in the hours to come. The dry slot hasn't really even developed yet. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 0.7” here so far. Snow started around 7:30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxNoob Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Started as zr here but switched to graupel pretty quickly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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