tim123 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Big flakes in henrietta at work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Looks like a severe weather outbreak in Florida georgia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Overall take on this one? Sleet to thruway or north? I dont think you'll have to worry about sleet where you are.. Some idiots will no doubt report it after midnight tonight when the lift is lower down in the column and there's significant riming and poor snow growth. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, OSUmetstud said: I dont think you'll have to worry about sleet where you are.. Some idiots will no doubt report it after midnight tonight when the lift is lower down in the column and there's significant riming and poor snow growth. (Note to self: Don’t report sleet during Jeb Walk) 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, 96blizz said: (Note to self: Don’t report sleet during Jeb Walk) lol. I just notice people do that sometimes. If it's windy and there's riming you'll hear the snow hit the window, but to get proper sleet, you really need more melting aloft (like 1C or greater). This just doesn't in the right setup for sleet for WNY. Even though the GFS say sleet on the ptype maps, if you look the sounding, there's no where in the sounding above zero. The larger concern is that the models are overdoing qpf a bit given that the system is all front end warm advection and the dryslot is always closer than you think. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 54 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Lightweight stuff for sure. I thought I wasn’t going to see 2”+ snow rates again this year but tonight might bring that again! I couldn’t make the trip in time so you guys will certainly jackpot. Radar looks good enjoy fellas! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, OSUmetstud said: lol. I just notice people do that sometimes. If it's windy and there's riming you'll hear the snow hit the window, but to get proper sleet, you really need more melting aloft (like 1C or greater). This just doesn't in the right setup for sleet for WNY. Even though the GFS say sleet on the ptype maps, if you look the sounding, there's no where in the sounding above zero. The larger concern is that the models are overdoing qpf a bit given that the system is all front end warm advection and the dryslot is always closer than you think. All good. When I’m out at 1AM with a cold one and swallowing snow or rime - I won’t care which it is! Appreciate your contributions!! I still think it’s the classic Thump to Snizzle where you get 90% of your accumulation in like a 4-5 hour period and then have some leftover dry slotted snizzle to make the snow heavier to move when the hangover wears off. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2021 Author Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said: Ok, so does that make another 15 more or less impressive? I'm also highly skeptical anyone got 2 feet. 12 inches sure, 18 maybe.... 2 feet.. nope. Not believing that for a second. Anyway, good for them though. That's one of the worst places in the whole Great Lakes in regards to getting appreciative snow. I'm sure their local snow nerds are in their glory. All I meant was they're having a really good stretch up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Pressure drops looking more reasonable now. One area over WVA. The HP nicely positioned to try and hold off the onslaught. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 36 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: I was just watching The weather channel and they were talking about that deadly tornado in Georgia and right after that segment they showed an in-house model or whatever they use at the weather channel and it had the mix line staying pretty much south of Syracuse through the whole event so I don't know where they're getting these models from but that's what I just saw Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Channel 9’s in house model keeps the taint the southeast f Syracuse. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 If the WSI precipitation type radar Is to be believed, then the majority of the models have been too far Northwest with the snow sleet line all day long. I think the pingers stay south..models, imo, are having a tough time with the cold air at the low-levels with the track of this system..... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 My belief is once the actual system arrives the moisture will get to the snow growth zone.Nah, I posted the skew T of this but I guess no one noticed, lol. The snow growth region is super shallow about 2200' so I doubt we see anything nite worthy but I can definitely be wrong as It was the skew that I was reading so hopefully it was wrongSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 I'm golfing (Indoor) so hopefully I can back down off the ledge afterwards by taking a sabbatical from models for a while. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Needles are common around -5C. That's where the warm nose is at and it's pretty dry with weak omega. The lift will increase tonight and increase in depth with the incoming low, so they'll be clumps of different kinds of flakes then. How's it going Nick? Still up in Labrador? Or was it Nova Scotia?Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 There remains uncertainty to the track and timing of this storm system for Thursday and Friday. The 12Z deterministic run of the GFS is now in better agreement with the 12Z Canadian in maintaining the eastward track of of the deepening coastal low, which will aid in pulling colder air southward across our region. Though model guidance continues to trend a tad colder, will continue to mention the possibility of mixed precip with this system Thursday - early Friday. Regardless, any mixed precip that may clip the CWA will change over to all snow by Friday as colder air filters in. While it`s still too early to pin down any specifics, and with the exception of any mixed precipitation that may nudge into the region, significant snowfall accumulations for the majority of the area are possible Thursday morning and into Friday. In terms of temperatures, the cold streak will continue with highs remaining below normal. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Northwest flow behind exiting system will transition synoptic-scale precipitation over to lake enhanced/lake effect snow Friday night into Saturday. High pressure and drier air will build in and diminish the lake effect snows Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Light snow beginning to accumulate on all surfaces, probably more to do with diurnal effects going away more than rate itself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Light snow beginning to accumulate on all surfaces, probably more to do with diurnal effects going away more than rate itself Same here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 9 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: How's it going Nick? Still up in Labrador? Or was it Nova Scotia? Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Heh. St. John's Newfoundland. Going alright. You? Were kinda on the wrong end of this one. Only going to get like 2" followed by freezing rain then rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Dendrites looking better ATM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Heh. St. John's Newfoundland. Going alright. You? Were kinda on the wrong end of this one. Only going to get like 2" followed by freezing rain then rain. Was it you last year or the previous that posted pics in the blizzard up there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: Was it you last year or the previous that posted pics in the blizzard up there? Last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, OSUmetstud said: Last year. That was epic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 22 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: All I meant was they're having a really good stretch up there. I got you brother. Wasnt trying to knock you, I just think its important we don't inflate numbers. This forum lives and dies on accurate snowfall totals so giving someone a free 2 feet when they probably got 18" doesn't seem fair. It's easily the most snow I've seen them get from a trajectory like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Impressive satellite for only 1005mb. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 This storm sure is a pretty one. Quite photogenic on the IR at least. A very well developed comma head. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=continental-conus-13-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Wow, we posted that at the exact same time! Thats freaking weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 What a sht show at the market today. These freaking people panic buying for a foot of snow falling overnight. That’s the only thing I hate about winter weather warnings... Wow... got a few pages of reading to catch up on! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Light steady snow here, flakes look decent at the moment.. Temps are in the mid 20s which the NAM picked up on a couple days ago, majority of guidance had temps in the teens or even single digits.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 16 minutes ago, vortmax said: Impressive satellite for only 1005mb. Blizzard of 93 Lite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 I'm honestly more worried about storm #2 missing to the south than to the north. Now that would suck. Getting storm #1 to miss to the north only to get storm #2 to miss to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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