DeltaT13 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 6 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said: The good news is... everything goes well this week and we are average. So after this week anything else is gravy. If this week goes well the winter automatically gets a B+ no matter what happens next. That map is a little out to lunch. Current official numbers are all above those: BUF - 58 ROC -47 SYR - 51 BGM - 82 ALB - 49 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2021 Author Share Posted February 15, 2021 HRRR goes pretty far west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Hey fellas if I decide to come chase where do you think I set up shop? Roc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Yeah, I was looking at the HRRR...brings mixed precip. way up to northern New England with a mix AND dry slot making it to Syracuse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, Wentzadelphia said: Hey fellas if I decide to come chase where do you think I set up shop? Roc? Far, far, faaaaaaar away from me. That's my best advice. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2021 Author Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, TugHillMatt said: Yeah, I was looking at the HRRR...brings mixed precip. way up to northern New England with a mix AND dry slot making it to Syracuse. You know if you think about and push an agenda enough, you can make it happen Matt... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said: Far, far, faaaaaaar away from me. That's my best advice. Haha, so you know the tale of the Heisy curse. I kind of broke it though on my recent chase to Dover NJ, finally didn’t get screwed 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: That map is a little out to lunch. Current official numbers are all above those: BUF - 58 ROC -47 SYR - 51 BGM - 82 ALB - 49 Def true. SYR & ROC are the biggest Losers to date. But we aim to pimp slap back this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, 96blizz said: You know if you think about and push an agenda enough, you can make it happen Matt... Dude. I am NOT pushing any agenda. Seriously, you need to relax now. EVERY single model has been shifting north and west today, with the exception of the Ukie. That's not an agenda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Yeah, I was looking at the HRRR...brings mixed precip. way up to northern New England with a mix AND dry slot making it to Syracuse. I want to disembowel you right now. Stoppppp! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Oh, ok. It's gonna snow 20 inches tomorrow and Tuesday. Yaaaaaaaay!!!! There. That better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2021 Author Share Posted February 15, 2021 Uh oh, NAM another jump NW. 2 MB stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2021 Author Share Posted February 15, 2021 Mixing line to state line now across WNY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Uh oh, NAM another jump NW Sttoooppp...No it's not! It's gonna snow 20 inches across all of Upstate! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2021 Author Share Posted February 15, 2021 Low almost to Erie... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 It looks like once it makes it near the NY/PA border, the NAM shunts the mix to the east more than north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Oh, ok. It's gonna snow 20 inches tomorrow and Tuesday. Yaaaaaaaay!!!! There. That better? Yes. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Transfer saves the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Yes. Is this the right club? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, TugHillMatt said: Is this the right club? Now you're thinking right. I knew we could do it! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Screw Detroit, this thing wants to make a run at Minneapolis. Lol. Crazy. Thank goodness for a relentless HP just north of us. This is getting ridiculous. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Yay!!! The NAM has me over a foot!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Fwiw I find the NAM is usually too far NW with these things compared to other guidance. Don’t be surprised to see other guidance not nearly as far NW. still think the bullseye will be 1-90 corridor from BUF to SYR. I wouldn’t be sweating it unless I was in BGM or ALB. I’d be shocked if 06z guidance didn’t tick back SE as they usually do once inside 24 hr. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 12k and 3k.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 16 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Screw Detroit, this thing wants to make a run at Minneapolis. Lol. Crazy. Thank goodness for a relentless HP just north of us. This is getting ridiculous. Damn your eyes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 The Nam 3k looks like it's trying to set up a nice WNW band of lake effect snow at the end of its run (60 hours.) I would love to experience my first lake enhanced/effect WNW band on the back of a synoptic system here. Those seem to be the situations where the Cuse cashes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 26 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Transfer saves the day Yuup! This storm is turning into a mini Miller B with a pretty obvious secondary firing up off NJ on Tuesday morning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Fwiw I find the NAM is usually too far NW with these things compared to other guidance. Don’t be surprised to see other guidance not nearly as far NW. still think the bullseye will be 1-90 corridor from BUF to SYR. I wouldn’t be sweating it unless I was in BGM or ALB. I’d be shocked if 06z guidance didn’t tick back SE as they usually do once inside 24 hr. The sweating pretty much ceased after 12z runs for BGM to ALB. We will flip to sleet and freezing rain after a few inches of snow. The Finger Lakes to Mohawk Valley are now the sweat zone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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