tim123 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 I think they use icon snowfall products. Lol. Like 5 to 1 ratios on that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Buf cwa upgraded to warning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said: We've had our pre-pre game snowfall all day here in the Syracuse area. Probably the cloudiest day of this month with light snow falling all day. The heaviest of the day has been falling the last hour. Looks like the NW winds have brought sunshine to Buffalo and even Rochester? Was awesome this morning. Bright sun beaming through on the flurries. Been clear blue skys and sun past few hours. Just got done scrapping the driveway and sidewalk down. Ready to go now! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Low ball for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, lakeeffectkid383 said: Wrong. Weak sauce 6-11” lmao. Not that I care what NWS says. Bingo!!! Less than Erie Pa and Cleveland!!! I can’t with these effers 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, 96blizz said: It’s correcting but never fully in one run. It actually looks a bit more NW in C/E NY. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 I knew they would. They usually go low. Unless its lake snow for buffalo proper 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, 96blizz said: Splitting hairs but should be 8-14” or 10-15” for N Erie, Niagara, Orleans, Monroe counties in the warnings IMO. Oh well, I’m just happy to have a great warning event to track! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 hours ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: My calls, will do a final one tonight after the 00z suite. BUF - 13.3” ROC- 17.1” SYR - 14.4” (except 1.2” at Matt’s house) ALB - 5.3” (mix issues) BGM 6.8” (mix issues) That's a bullish call for Matt's place. I'll take the under. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 I see what KBUF did. They didn’t include the first round of 2-3” of snow tomorrow. The WSW begins at 7pm tomorrow, so if you add up 2-3 on top of 6-11 you get 8-14”...odd they didn’t combine the 2 as totals will be higher than they’re suggesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 hours ago, rochesterdave said: Watch. The EURO is going to be great. We’ll all breathe a sigh of relief. Followed by 18z NAM with sleet to the lake and I’ll be back in the basement looking for my length of rope. I don't give a rats f*cking azz what the 18Z NAM shows. Pretty much, ever. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: It actually looks a bit more NW in C/E NY. Nah man. The Low is clearly SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, Syrmax said: That's a bullish call for Matt's place. I'll take the under. I was worried it might be too high. Perhaps Kuchera will save me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I see what KBUF did. They didn’t include the first round of 2-3” of snow tomorrow. The WSW begins at 7pm tomorrow, so if you add up 2-3 on top of 6-11 you get 8-14”...odd they didn’t combine the 2 as totals will be higher than they’re suggesting Kept em separate to fudge numbers. Typically buffalo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, 96blizz said: Nah man. The Low is clearly SE. I'm not looking at the low, per se. I'm looking at where it takes the mixed line, along with lower totals. Taken with a HUGE grain of salt though... P.S. Getting a very nice moderate snowfall (small flakes) up here right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 3k looks sweet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, tim123 said: Kept em separate to fudge numbers. Typically buffalo So typical. If it ain’t lake effect for BUF proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Could someone post the AFD write up? It’s all mixed up. It doesn’t even mention the upgrade to the WSW...yikes KBUF we need Tom Niziol back...you beat me to it Wolfie!!! But as you can see they didn’t fully update the verbiage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 I did but I deleted it because I thought it was old lol After a brief lull in the snow Monday afternoon, a second and much stronger jet will emerge from the Ohio Valley Monday night, with the right entrance region of a 160+ knot 300 hPa jet streak passing over our region. Additionally, a mid level trough just east of the Four Corners Region will pass across our region Monday night and into Tuesday. Lower in the atmosphere a 60 knot LLJ will advance northward along the east coast, with the left exit region nearing our region. The 12Z ECMWF continues to better align with the GFS in maintaining the axis of this jet closer to the eastern seaboard, while the latest GGEM solution keeps it a bit further to the southeast. Nonetheless, this LLJ will aid in deeper Gulf of Mexico moisture transport from the south, which combined with the increased lift from the passage of the mid level trough and jet dynamics, will bring greater confidence for a heavier snowfall late Monday night and into Tuesday afternoon. This swath of synoptic snow will likely bring more significant accumulations to the area Monday night into Tuesday. This swath of synoptic snow will likely bring more significant accumulations to the area Monday night into Tuesday, and we will maintain the winter storm watch as is with this forecast package. Looking at CIPS analogs, most of the events within the analogs did bring warning criteria snows to our region. What could hold back snowfall totals will be the placement of the SW/NE oriented baroclinic boundary aloft, and if it will back westward enough to allow warmer air aloft to bring a mixture of sleet or freezing rain along the southern fringes of the CWA. Model guidance continues to keep this boundary just far enough eastward that the area will still likely see an all snow forecast, but latest model guidance nudging it a bit further northward warrants close monitoring moving closer to the event. As the system pushes northeastward, colder air will filter in from the northwest and cyclonic flow will allow for some brief lake enhancement south of Lake Ontario through Tuesday afternoon, before the dendritic growth zone loses the deeper synoptic moisture. Upslope flow in the Southern Tier and on the Tug Hill may lead to a minor increase snowfall amounts in those areas through Tuesday. For snowfall totals, the potential for over 9 inches remains possible, with majority of the snow falling Monday night and into Tuesday. By Tuesday afternoon a dry slot will be pushing northward across the state line as a deformation band of snow across WNY lifts northward, with synoptic snow finally tapering down. Tuesday night, cold air advection embedded in a NW flow could bring lake effect snow back to areas south and southeast of Lake Ontario. Moisture will diminish through the night as a spoke of a strong surface high passes across our region, which will also lower lake inversion heights. Behind this trough Tuesday night will be cold with single digit lows across WNY, and below zero east of Lake Ontario. If we can clear out sooner (outside of lingering lake clouds) several areas could drop even colder than what is forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 3k NAM 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 3k showing some nice lake snows on a nw wind after Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: 3k NAM I swear, they are trying to drive Matt nuts. That stupid wedge of lower totals just right there. Dang! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 38 minutes ago, tim123 said: I count on it I demand it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 I’m NOT worried but ya gotta watch the 700. Wrong way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 When your not use to forecasting snow... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: I swear, they are trying to drive Matt nuts. That stupid wedge of lower totals just right there. Dang! Ha! The Nam 3k. My least favorite weather model. Ever. It's like a bitter ex-friend that you can't shake off. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: I’m NOT worried but ya gotta watch the 700. Wrong way This is 6 and 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, 96blizz said: This is 6 and 12z. Thanks! My bad!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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