BuffaloWeather Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 Whoever rides that mixing line will get some hefty QPF with a Miller A like this. However, those farther NW will get lower QPF but higher ratios. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Regardless...getting a nice, gentle snowfall here this morning. Smallish flakes, but it's looks pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 The 6z Euro jumped NW too. I wonder if this makes the 2nd storm cut way NW now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankees102110 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Yuck, RGEM even more mixing for Southern Dacks. I’m like right on that 6-8 line, 20 miles south 3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 RGEM for 2nd storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said: ...and with a low waaaay down in the Southern DelMarVa. lol Well it hasn't happened yet and especially with the RGEM coming in without any tainting, I think we're ok 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 9 hours ago, SnowLover22 said: Let's revisit this tomorrow. There is time yet for this to trend more NW..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: The 6z Euro jumped NW too. I wonder if this makes the 2nd storm cut way NW now? Would almost wanna be inclined to say it makes it go se some because this storm making a bigger trough. But who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Whoever rides that mixing line will get some hefty QPF with a Miller A like this. However, those farther NW will get lower QPF but higher ratios. 1 minute ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Well it hasn't happened yet and especially with the RGEM coming in without any tainting, I think we're ok Could be really close, but like BW said, could snow very heavy just to the north/west of the taint line. Gotta sniff it, right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 sure do, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 I can't get over this map 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, CNY-LES FREAK said: sure do, lol! If we're going to be close, this is the ideal setup: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Trying to understand how most guidance is still on the fence with this one, weird! I still dont think we've seen the last of the surprises with this one wrt track, and the strength of this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said: If we're going to be close, this is the ideal setup: Being newer to the area, I really watched the models for the 2/2 to 2/3 storm and the RGEM did the best with lake enhancement. This is an encouraging run by the Canucks after our own Americans tried to drive people to their roofs for a swan dive. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: If we're going to be close, this is the ideal setup: i'm thinking those totals reflect some hefty LE after the system passes us by to our N&E, either way, I'll take whatever the clouds wanna throw my way, lol! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankees102110 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 This is going to be close for areas around me. Not many people on this board from my region. This is the RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: And theres the next one diving down West of the Continental Divide, sweet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 I don't think I want it any stronger. It could break through the High and lead to more of a Nam 3k look. Again, that's been pretty common this year. At the same time, I could see this being an event where the mix line makes it up to the higher elevations of Ithaca to Cortland/Tully and over to Oneonta and Cooperstown and no farther. I have seen that happen several times since I've moved here. The cold air holds strong in the lower elevations to the north of those higher hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, yankees102110 said: This is going to be close for areas around me. Not many people on this board from my region. This is the RGEM Got to be honest. This ain’t your storm. But ya never know. SE ticks happen. Just not this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, 96blizz said: Being newer to the area, I really watched the models for the 2/2 to 2/3 storm and the RGEM did the best with lake enhancement. This is an encouraging run by the Canucks after our own Americans tried to drive people to their roofs for a swan dive. Wolfie's made me a believer that the Rgem is one of, if not the best, with lake involvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Jesus. That ICON is scary. It’s been pretty good this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, rochesterdave said: Jesus. That ICON is scary. It’s been pretty good this year. Shows next storm way se Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 I think I got it from BW Anyway icon moved east at 12z (storm 2), lighter precipitation but all snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 GFS is going to be fine. I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Yeah a little west though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 speed: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 My area in Cazenovia is like 500' from the taint line... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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