rochesterdave Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, tim123 said: Storm 2 on euro looks big too. Looks a little warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 This is what it looked like on Friday's 12Z run. Compare then to tonight's 00Z run. Nearly identical snow swath. It looks like we've seen the area of north and south fluctuation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 I guess I can sleep easy with seeing this image... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Both kuchie 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 Solid hit for all. Gotta worry about NW trend with 2nd storm and the potential dry slot across central NY. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: Looks a little warm I knew the second storm would be warmer. Mid upper 20s. Second storm never really had much potential for lake enhanced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 I am pretty sure we're locked and loaded in CNY/WNY. IMO, we shouldn't have any last minute surprises that the models don't see. It's not like we have a rip-roaring slp nor any deep h850 low that could pull last minute shenanigans. It's really just a settling of the baroclinic zone within the models. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 7 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Both kuchie Lol...7" NYC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 5 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: I am pretty sure we're locked and loaded in CNY/WNY. IMO, we shouldn't have any last minute surprises that the models don't see. It's not like we have a rip-roaring slp nor any deep h850 low that could pull last minute shenanigans. It's really just a settling of the baroclinic zone within the models. Exactly my thought for Storm 1. I'm prepared for "issues" on Storm 2. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 First call for storm 1 roc 15. Buffalo 10 syr 10 Albany 8 bgm 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, Syrmax said: Exactly my thought for Storm 1. I'm prepared for "issues" on Storm 2. Me too. But we won’t have any idea until this one clears. And this one looks like a beauty! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Yeah, storm 2 is not looking like a clean system at all. Hopefully as the week goes on we can see it work SE on the models like we've seen with many "longer range" storm threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, Syrmax said: Exactly my thought for Storm 1. I'm prepared for "issues" on Storm 2. Yeah, #2, I'd hedge towards the euro though.... The GFS over the last few runs has ticked eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 First Call: first storm Buf-14 Roc-22 Syr-17 Bing-8 Geneva-13 Iag-18 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, rochesterdave said: Me too. But we won’t have any idea until this one clears. And this one looks like a beauty! Yeah this storm has you and Tim written all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 I doubt KSYR sees more than 6-8" with the first event, not even gonna speculate on the 2nd yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: First Call: first storm Buf-14 Roc-22 Syr-17 Bing-8 Geneva-13 Iag-18 I love that you included Geneva in there. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, TugHillMatt said: I love that you included Geneva in there. lol I know right 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: First Call: first storm Buf-14 Roc-22 Syr-17 Bing-8 Geneva-13 Iag-18 Going big dave. I will say it has potential this first storm for major enhancement. Would like to see meso models come 00z tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 5 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: I doubt KSYR sees more than 6-8" with the first event, not even gonna speculate on the 2nd yet! Going low? I will go between the calls you and Dave made and say 10 to 12 inches for the Syracuse area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, TugHillMatt said: Going low? I will go between the calls you and Dave made and say 10 to 12 inches for the Syracuse area. Yeah, I think we get missed by the heavier returns and places to our S&E like KITH, Cortland and Tully will cash in big time. We'll still see a decent event but nowhere near what some of these clown maps are spitting out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Kinda of topic but chicago area may be hit hard with lake snow with this storm. Watches may be issued soon out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Could see some short duration WNW flow lake bands set up on the backside of these systems too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 We have a 15-18hr event and we all know that its not gonna snow for the whole event so lets say 15hr of snow, to achieve some of the totals being forecasted by the models it would have to snow 1"/hr for 15hrs straight, lol, its just not gonna happen, sorry but like I said it'll be a decent event nonetheless so enjoy, forum, we deserve it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 We didn't even manage to get a flake from tonights dud, rlmao! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 5 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: We have a 15-18hr event and we all know that its not gonna snow for the whole event so lets say 15hr of snow, to achieve some of the totals being forecasted by the models it would have to snow 1"/hr for 15hrs straight, lol, its just not gonna happen, sorry but like I said it'll be a decent event nonetheless so enjoy, forum, we deserve it! There will be periods of time when snows harder than 1" per hour, 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Debbie downers are out in full force. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, LakeEffectKing said: There will be periods of time when snows harder than 1" per hour, I hope the higher totals come to fruition and Im sure ur right but I just don't see it snowing that hard for the whole event but I hope I'm wrong, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 No Tim, its called reality, lol! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 57 minutes ago, tim123 said: Bgm weather must be sleeping Yeah fell asleep. Here now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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