frostfern Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Does anyone have the corresponding maps from the Euro and Ukie? I'm blocked by the paywall. I think the jet buckling like a whip is the key to the weenie run being closer to reality. It has to do with the evolution of the speed max diving down the Pacific Coast. If that speed max slows down the eastward progress of the longwave trough, there will be enough northward rebound behind the departing OV system to produce a deeper more north tracking low. The longwave trough effectively splits in two, and the low can ride up in between. The problem is if that streak doesn't dig down enough to hold back the western end of trough, the whole thing will just slide east, leading to weaker more positively tilted system that gives the OV more snow but misses IL/MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Visible toward end of NAM run. Times like these are what make this hobby so fun. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 59 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Visible toward end of NAM run. Times like these are what make this hobby so fun. I still cant believe theres 2 major storms back to back like this. Never seen something like that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 GFS trending east. Blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said: GFS trending east. Blah. one run is not a trend. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Thought it came back west a bit from the 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 5 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: one run is not a trend. Second run now. Not to mention it's the GFS. Not to mention the Ukie and Euro disagreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, Cary67 said: Thought it came back west a bit from the 18Z Not at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, Baum said: Am I blind or is the low over Indy which is normally ground zero for Chicago hit? That said, one model 3-4 days out. Enough to keep me interested. You're blind. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 28 minutes ago, zinski1990 said: I still cant believe theres 2 major storms back to back like this. Never seen something like that Me either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Two big time hits potentially in the same week!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 As a whole we are looking at a severe event for most of the country this week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 7 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said: You're blind. lol yep. I did look incorrectly. Game over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 yep its over 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 0z Canadian looked nice. 0z gfs was a bump east but I'm sure we will see plenty of wobbles especially till after this first system gets resolved and until we get better sampling of the jet responsible. Holding hope this can finally be my best winter storm of the season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, StormChaser4Life said: 0z Canadian looked nice. 0z gfs was a bump east but I'm sure we will see plenty of wobbles especially till after this first system gets resolved and until we get better sampling of the jet responsible. Holding hope this can finally be my best winter storm of the season. I'm rooting for u man. It's our turns now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 Second run now. Not to mention it's the GFS. Not to mention the Ukie and Euro disagreed. And the three runs prior to that moved NW, and the one before that was SE. There is no trend. It’s bouncing around. Just as the Euro has been bouncing around as well. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Maybe it's a tad east, but I really don't see how it's a large enough change to write home about. It's like a fifty mile difference over 100 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 fun LOT tidbit: INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT EVEN THE DRIER ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS FROM WPC ANALYSIS BRING AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF INTO OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA WITH THIS SYSTEM, INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WELL NORTHWEST OF THE LOW TRACK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 What a pattern! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 3 hours ago, Baum said: fun LOT tidbit: INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT EVEN THE DRIER ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS FROM WPC ANALYSIS BRING AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF INTO OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA WITH THIS SYSTEM, INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WELL NORTHWEST OF THE LOW TRACK Well, if it can go strong nagative tilt and not lose energy to the coast it can throw a defo-band pretty far west. Everything is so up in the air now that the track keeps changing even with the next event. Exhausting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Canadian and UK not very impressive. Id expect the models to hone in on the track of the next system hopefully by Tuesday after this current system rolls along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Now looking like this 1st system might be my better shot at significant snowfall with models shifting east once again with this system. But wouldn't be shocked to see it trend nw again after this current system passes and models can resolve its snowfall foot print. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 17 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: Canadian and UK not very impressive. Id expect the models to hone in on the track of the next system hopefully by Tuesday after this current system rolls along. Canadian is doing the exact same thing it did with this current storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 15 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Now looking like this 1st system might be my better shot at significant snowfall with models shifting east once again with this system. But wouldn't be shocked to see it trend nw again after this current system passes and models can resolve its snowfall foot print. I think the main source of uncertainty is over the the North Pacific. It has good potential to trend NW if it comes off the Southern Rockies strong. The pattern won't really be the same anymore over North America since the cold dome will be modifying some just because they days are getting longer. Models just aren't sampling the source region for the upper jet streaks diving down the west coast very well. It's not really an issue just affecting one model. All of them have been sketchy lately at long range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 24 minutes ago, frostfern said: I think the main source of uncertainty is over the the North Pacific. It has good potential to trend NW if it comes off the Southern Rockies strong. The pattern won't really be the same anymore over North America since the cold dome will be modifying some just because they days are getting longer. Models just aren't sampling the source region for the upper jet streaks diving down the west coast very well. It's not really an issue just affecting one model. All of them have been sketchy lately at long range. Or any range for that matter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said: Or any range for that matter. Well, long range now is more than 24 hours lol. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 not surprising but the 18z NAM seems north at 84 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 hours ago, janetjanet998 said: not surprising but the 18z NAM seems north at 84 hours Not to get greedy but would be AMAZING to get two back to back big snowstorms here. Esp after all winter has been lamefest minus NYD storm. Hoping that one can trend nw last second like this current one did. Long range nam looks similar to what it did for the current storm at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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