Feb 18-19 long duration manageable snow and ice event

[Greg g]

What are the thoughts for starting time for this one?? Thursday early afternoon? or late morning?

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, Greg g said:

What are the thoughts for starting time for this one?? Thursday early afternoon? or late morning?

Late morning 

[NJwx85]

4-8" for most, up to 12" locally.

It should come in relatively heavy on Thursday during the day but the high is retreating and warm air will be moving in aloft so I would bet on a changeover South of I-84. Then it looks like we could get some back end snow on Friday but that looks to be very light.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

4-8" for most, up to 12" locally.

It should come in relatively heavy on Thursday during the day but the high is retreating and warm air will be moving in aloft so I would bet on a changeover South of I-84. Then it looks like we could get some back end snow on Friday but that looks to be very light.

Have to watch the coastal to see what it does

[MJO812]

Rgem has 3 lows

 

Long duration event

[crossbowftw3]

24 minutes ago, sferic said:

@crossbowftw3 @snywx @Ericjcrash Early calls if all goes right? For Sullivan I think 8-12

6-10 with some 12
 

[winterwx21]

The GGEM actually has the snow picking back up friday night. I know this isn't one of the better models, so I don't know how likely this is.

[NJwx85]

The 12z GFS was similar to the 12z NAM with regards to the WAA precip for Thursday, although not quite as far NW. It was however West of the 06z run and significantly faster and stronger.

[NJwx85]

18 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

The GGEM actually has the snow picking back up friday night. I know this isn't one of the better models, so I don't know how likely this is.

This storm has in and out in about 8 hours written all over it. No blocking, strong mid-level jet and retreating high. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

55 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Icon has rain up into the Berkshires on Friday.  Models all over the place at this juncture. 

ICON is trash especially with thermals. It had rain to Canada with last nights event. 

[Eduardo]

10 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

This storm has in and out in about 8 hours written all over it. No blocking, strong mid-level jet and retreating high. 

I think the long duration on the RGEM and GGEM results from multiple waves though, not slow storm movement, right?.

[SnoSki14]

Cmc would be nice though even the Nam/Gfs have a strong front-end thump before any changeover.

I think a 6" event is looking pretty good right now.

[NJwx85]

4 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

I think the long duration on the RGEM and GGEM results from multiple waves though, not slow storm movement, right?.

It's relying on another shortwave rounding the base of the trough and creating another storm. It's possible but I certainly wouldn't bet on that happening without better model agreement.

[CIK62]

Not within the 'accurate forecast'  time range yet for the  NAM unfortunately:

 

[EastonSN+]

CMC has multiple as well. 6plus everywhere except less as you go further north.

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

CMC has multiple as well. 6plus everywhere except less as you go further north.

Gfs has 2 waves

[SnowGoose69]

The UKMET has that funky late start time like the Euro

[SnoSki14]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

The UKMET has that funky late start time like the Euro

The UKMET has not performed well lately.

[Tatamy]

12z Euro

[winterwx21]

Looks as if the new Euro just coming in is going with the longer duration snow event scenario. The first wave thursday gives heavier snow just to our south. A lot for central/southern Jersey. But the snow is reloading for thursday night ... accumulating snow still going on here into early friday morning. Despite the heaviest of the first wave thursday going just to our south, we still end up getting a good 6 inches up here due to the lighter snow continuing into friday morning.

[bluewave]

Looks like the Euro is overdoing the confluence in New England. So that 6”+ zone will probably bump north in later runs similar to the other guidance today.

 

 

[NEG NAO]

Just now, winterwx21 said:

Looks as if the new Euro just coming in is going with the longer duration snow event scenario. The first wave thursday gives heavier snow just to our south. A lot for central/southern Jersey. But the snow is reloading for thursday night ... accumulating snow still going on here into early friday morning. Despite the heaviest of the first wave thursday going just to our south, we still end up getting a good 6 inches up here due to the lighter snow continuing into friday morning.

little if any mixing throughout the event for many areas

[Tatamy]

12z Euro

[MJO812]

Euro is crazy

 

Still snowing Friday night after some sleet near the coast.

[SnowGoose69]

Timing is more logical on Euro now but at same time I agree with bluewave this thing is too suppressed 

[pstar3182]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro is crazy

 

Still snowing Friday night after some sleet near the coast.

Henry is hugging the it lol

[Allsnow]

29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Looks like the Euro is overdoing the confluence in New England. So that 6”+ zone will probably bump north in later runs similar to the other guidance today.

 

 

Jackpot for your area if that’s true then 

[SnowGoose69]

The EPS through 54 is a tad more north with the precip than the Op

[Allsnow]

[HVSnowLover]

Seems models trending drier but colder. Probably right where we want this right now expecting the usual north tick.