Feb 18-19 long duration manageable snow and ice event

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Main point is that Nam which is the most amped up model continues to trend colder.

It almost looks like warmer, more inland version of PD II with overrunning then coastal. 

If the 12z suite holds or trends colder then we'll see watch this afternoon.

Coastal areas want the non NAM progression.  The NAM is still more west and north, particularly as the system crosses through areas 24-36 hours before reaching the area.  Coastal areas in these setups always want the main WAA precip to be approaching at an angle of 180-200 or so...if the setup is aligned so that its coming from more W-SW than that your system is tracking more west than you want and the main WAA is going to your NW.  

[Allsnow]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The forecast soundings look a little better this morning. Maybe we could sneak in a 3-6” front end thump at the coast before the sleet arrives. The high over New England is positioned better. We’ll see if we can hold this in coming days.

Colder version of the December storm  coming 

[NJwx85]

4 minutes ago, Blizzwalker said:

Nam has 5 inches for nw Orange co but 10 for city at 57 hrs.  Noaa has 7 inches for nw Orange co and less as u go SE toward city. Why would that be ? Because it is Nam beyond 48 hrs ?

 Because the NWS doesn't use clown maps for forecasting snow amounts.

[NJwx85]

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Colder version of the December storm  coming 

Nobody is getting 40" out of this. 

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

Nobody is getting 40" out of this. 

I’m not referring to what happen in VT. More in line to what happen down here. We don’t have the blocking so nobody will get 40. The front end will be more impressive for areas in the  metro/north jersey this time around 

[NJwx85]

8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Coastal areas want the non NAM progression.  The NAM is still more west and north, particularly as the system crosses through areas 24-36 hours before reaching the area.  Coastal areas in these setups always want the main WAA precip to be approaching at an angle of 180-200 or so...if the setup is aligned so that its coming from more W-SW than that your system is tracking more west than you want and the main WAA is going to your NW.  

If the 12z NAM is correct the WAA snow is going to come in like a wall on Thursday afternoon.

[Allsnow]

Rgem 6-8 across the metro 

[David-LI]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Rgem 6-8 across the metro 

How are temperatures looking? 

[mikem81]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Rgem 6-8 across the metro 

It looks really good. still snowing at end of run and much colder..

 

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Rgem 6-8 across the metro 

This events totals are beginning to look similar to the Sunday Feb. 7 storm many areas got between 6 and 8 - some a little more some a little less throughout the metro....

[SnowGoose69]

9 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

If the 12z NAM is correct the WAA snow is going to come in like a wall on Thursday afternoon.

 

The 700mb jet on the NAM is more NW than most other models...at this stage I would have to assume it is wrong given its an outlier and its beyond its best range.  That axis of orientation of the 700 jet though is more favorable for areas NW of NYC

[jm1220]

Hopefully those models are correct that there could be heavy banding and the snow comes in solidly. As others pointed out the problem in Dec was there was a few hours of good snow then the snow shredded up and warm air took over. I agree that most will change over to no -snow eventually-rain near the coast and sleet inland. Any of these setups where we’re sweating the mid level low tracks end in changeovers. 

[mikem81]

Just now, jm1220 said:

Hopefully those models are correct that there could be heavy banding and the snow comes in solidly. As others pointed out the problem in Dec was there was a few hours of good snow then the snow shredded up and warm air took over. I agree that most will change over to no -snow eventually-rain near the coast and sleet inland. Any of these setups where we’re sweating the mid level low tracks end in changeovers. 

In December Ocean Temps were 15 degrees warmer......Big difference this time of year

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Hopefully those models are correct that there could be heavy banding and the snow comes in solidly. As others pointed out the problem in Dec was there was a few hours of good snow then the snow shredded up and warm air took over. I agree that most will change over to no -snow eventually-rain near the coast and sleet inland. Any of these setups where we’re sweating the mid level low tracks end in changeovers. 

Long Island will always change over in December on that set up. You guys forgot  where you live after a few good years. Climo 

[NJwx85]

4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

The 700mb jet on the NAM is more NW than most other models...at this stage I would have to assume it is wrong given its an outlier and its beyond its best range.  That axis of orientation of the 700 jet though is more favorable for areas NW of NYC

I don't know how people are making such definitive statements about anything at this stage of the game. Right now I would say 12"+ is just as likely as nothing.

[Blizzwalker]

22 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

 Because the NWS doesn't use clown maps for forecasting snow amounts.

Yes, understood.  But it is not just lower amounts with noaa total event map--- it is reverse gradient.  Noaa had more snow NW, Nam had more snow SE

 

 

 

[72bundy]

4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I don't know how people are making such definitive statements about anything at this stage of the game. Right now I would say 12"+ is just as likely as nothing.

Zero to 12 is probably a good estimate 

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Long Island will always change over in December on that set up. You guys forgot  where you live after a few good years. Climo 

Long Island will always eventually changeover with more tucked in storm tracks.

[NEG NAO]

13 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

It looks really good. still snowing at end of run and much colder..

 

still snowing Friday evening ? This going to be an over  24 hour event ? What time does this model have snow beginning here ?

[Greg g]

 

When do you expect advisories and watches to be posted?? Later this evening??

[EastonSN+]

5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

still snowing Friday evening ? This going to be an over  24 hour event ? What time does this model have snow beginning here ?

RGEM seems to have multiple waves.

[NJwx85]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

RGEM seems to have multiple waves.

It's also the last model anyone should be looking at right now. 

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, Greg g said:

 

When do you expect advisories and watches to be posted?? Later this evening??

Walt should have the best answer to that question - for obvious reasons 

[White Gorilla]

Icon has rain up into the Berkshires on Friday.  Models all over the place at this juncture. 

[Snowlover11]

Just now, White Gorilla said:

Icon has rain up into the Berkshires on Friday.  Models all over the place at this juncture. 

shocker

[sferic]

@crossbowftw3 @snywx @Ericjcrash Early calls if all goes right? For Sullivan I think 8-12

[mikem81]

11 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

It's also the last model anyone should be looking at right now. 

I would say Hi Res NAM is last at this point in time....

[Allsnow]

Gfs 6-12 

[mikem81]

Here is GFSv16

 

[mikem81]

Regular GFS