Feb 18-19 long duration manageable snow and ice event

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Models are starting to look more like a Miller A

 

at the top end this could turn into 8-12 inches of snow for us

[eduggs]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

so now you believe this could be entirely snow during the day at least for NYC/Western LI?

Yes. That's not what I would forecast at this point. I still expect mixing through all of NJ and SENY. But model consensus plus 2 days of trends suggest this could become a mostly snow event. The 500mb height field on tonight's GFS looks nothing like it did two days ago.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, eduggs said:

Yes. That's not what I would forecast at this point. I still expect mixing through all of NJ and SENY. But model consensus plus 2 days of trends suggest this could become a mostly snow event. The 500mb height field on tonight's GFS looks nothing like it did two days ago.

I guess we're all staying up for the euro now lol.

The high end for this for NYC/W LI would be what- 8-12 inches?  Thats if it maxes out and stays all snow.

 

[SnowGoose69]

11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

PD2 type storm incoming

 

Well 2/11/94 is one of the top analogs showing up and that was Baby PD2 to a degree or non roided PD2.  This really does not resemble 2/11/94 or 2/16/03 though other than there being a big ass high over SE Canada.  The vort/surface features are going to be much stronger than either.  This is sort of 1/3rd Miler A, 1/3rd SWFE, 1/3rd Miller B as currently modeled.   We've had many SWFEs with that broad progressive 500 trof moving from the Oh Valley to the East Coast, but generally the surface lows cut overhead or just west and we changeover.  Those types of SWFEs though are often the ones that produce the biggest front end snows near the coast.

[LibertyBell]

22 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Well 2/11/94 is one of the top analogs showing up and that was Baby PD2 to a degree or non roided PD2.  This really does not resemble 2/11/94 or 2/16/03 though other than there being a big ass high over SE Canada.  The vort/surface features are going to be much stronger than either.  This is sort of 1/3rd Miler A, 1/3rd SWFE, 1/3rd Miller B as currently modeled.   We've had many SWFEs with that broad progressive 500 trof moving from the Oh Valley to the East Coast, but generally the surface lows cut overhead or just west and we changeover.  Those types of SWFEs though are often the ones that produce the biggest front end snows near the coast.

hmmm two storms that come to mind with that description was one of the storms in Dec 2002 that dropped 6 inches of snow before a changeover at the end and the SWFE from Feb 2008 I think it was that dropped 6-8 inches here, highest amounts near 8 inches in SW Nassau.  Only changed over to drizzle at the end.

 

[MJO812]

[wdrag]

517A: A nice solution coming (overall colder and snowier than what modeling was generally offering Friday the 12th) with a range of accumulations of 1" to possibly as much as a foot in the upper high end scenario. Thursday's evenings commute should be snowy for much of the area and see delays,  as it readies for a possible change to ice Near I78-LI (rain far south part of the subforum)  and then ends Friday, most of it done by sunrise Friday (but with early morning delays/cancels). Too early for me to be sure for the NYC/LI/NNJ membership but plenty of modeling close to half a foot.  A watch/warnable snow-ice event seems to be coming for a portion of NYC subforum,. IFFFFF NYC were to report half a foot, that would place NYC in the top 5 snowiest February's. 

This coming snow-sleet, whatever, should rejuvenate snow depth , and maybe allow half a foot or more for much of the area into Monday Feb 22. 

One WPC graphic added: the 24 hour prob of 2" of snow by 7P Thursday. 

[MJO812]

[SnoSki14]

Today we'll see if models trend NW again, an all too common occurrence this winter.

However the front-end thump seems likely no matter what happens.

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Today we'll see if models trend NW again, an all too common occurrence this winter.

However the front-end thump seems likely no matter what happens.

We kind of need a slight north trend with the precip.

[weatherpruf]

Just now, MJO812 said:

We kind of need a slight north trend with the precip.

Surprised to see you less than bullish...I was starting to think this might be significant and add to our total this season....

[HVSnowLover]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

We kind of need a slight north trend with the precip.

Agree if we want big totals we want the thump focused on our area and not further south. (Although the tradeoff would be risking a flip to rain)

[HVSnowLover]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The NAM forecast soundings are right on the line between heavy snow and sleet at the start. So a few degrees will make the difference between a 1-3 or 3-6” type of event before mixing near the coast. The 12z runs should be more informative.

 

I know it's a volatile situation but usually if the models are showing the snow line starting near Toms River we are in pretty good shape. It's when it is showing it just south of the city that we are more likely to bust with a quick changeover. 

[HVSnowLover]

NAM is a crusher, 6+ inches for most of us. 

[MJO812]

Through 54 hours on the Nam and still snowing in places

[mikem81]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Through 54 hours on the Nam and still snowing in places

Please don't use 10:1 maps (although Kuchera on the NAM run is similiar

 

 

 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

Please don't use 10:1 maps (although Kuchera on the NAM run is similiar

 

 

 

Ask the posters near the lakes how the Kuchera maps worked out for them this morning.

[mikem81]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Ask the posters near the lakes how the Kuchera maps worked out for them this morning.

My point is with sleet close by we need to use both maps!! We are on the same team... Routing for snow..

[Northof78]

NAM would be an epic thump with Kuchera totals of around 8-10" within 6 or so hours starting early Thu morning...then tapers to light snow after part 1, with another piece of the storm likely to follow (that could be likely sleet to snow) on top

[HVSnowLover]

4 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

My point is with sleet close by we need to use both maps!! We are on the same team... Routing for snow..

Agree about using kuchera especially in the case because 850s aren't ideal for snow growth, either way totals are pretty similar either way. 

[HVSnowLover]

2 minutes ago, Northof78 said:

NAM would be an epic thump with Kuchera totals of around 8-10" within 6 or so hours starting early Thu morning...then tapers to light snow after part 1, with another piece of the storm likely to follow (that could be likely sleet to snow) on top

The NAM has the overrunning snow targeting our area. I don't really bother with the NAM beyond 48 hours but the main storm is probably sleet/mix with more snow north of the city. 

[Snowshack]

Bullseye two days out sure hasn't been the place to be with recent events, but hopefully this look can hold.

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, Snowshack said:

Bullseye two days out sure hasn't been the place to be with recent events, but hopefully this look can hold.

Walt mentioned this morning "517A: A nice solution coming (overall colder and snowier than what modeling was generally offering Friday the 12th) with a range of accumulations of 1" to possibly as much as a foot in the upper high end scenario. "

[SnowGoose69]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

We kind of need a slight north trend with the precip.

 

Not so much....the Euro is simply less aggressive with speed of the shortwave and WAA strength so there is a big timing difference in start of the precip vs other models

[HVSnowLover]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

Walt mentioned this morning "517A: A nice solution coming (overall colder and snowier than what modeling was generally offering Friday the 12th) with a range of accumulations of 1" to possibly as much as a foot in the upper high end scenario. "

I think we are narrowing the range, I am pretty confident most of our area is getting more than 1 inch. 

[bluewave]

25 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

I know it's a volatile situation but usually if the models are showing the snow line starting near Toms River we are in pretty good shape. It's when it is showing it just south of the city that we are more likely to bust with a quick changeover. 

The forecast soundings look a little better this morning. Maybe we could sneak in a 3-6” front end thump at the coast before the sleet arrives. The high over New England is positioned better. We’ll see if we can hold this in coming days.

[SnoSki14]

Main point is that Nam which is the most amped up model continues to trend colder.

It almost looks like warmer, more inland version of PD II with overrunning then coastal. 

If the 12z suite holds or trends colder then we'll see watch this afternoon.

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

I think we are narrowing the range, I am pretty confident most of our area is getting more than 1 inch. 

my point was and I put in bold print that he thinks its possible some areas get up to a foot - and now it seems after each model cycle of most runs  the amounts increase  - question now is how much of that is snow ..........

[NJwx85]

We're in a pretty good spot with this one although we are likely going to taint during the height South of 84.

Still looks like a solid 4-8" for most with 10-12" locally.

[Blizzwalker]

Nam has 5 inches for nw Orange co but 8 for city at 57 hrs.  Noaa has 7 inches on their "event total" for nw Orange co and less as u go SE toward city. Why would that be ? Because it is Nam beyond 48 hrs ?