Feb 18-19 long duration manageable snow and ice event

[LibertyBell]

42 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I think we're converging on a solid advisory 3-5" type snowfall followed by sleet. So maybe something like 4-7" snow and sleet combined. I really hope we can get a few hours of heavy snow during daylight hours Thursday.

sounds like VD 2007

[LibertyBell]

35 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Seems likely that we'll see at least an advisory event with borderline warning snows for some.

would this be enough to get NYC to 40"?

JFK getting to 30" for sure

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

If you live anywhere 30 miles or more NW, N or NE of NYC I’m not sure why you would expect March to be anything but another winter month which is what it is the far majority of the time. I guess some people on the coastal plain view it differently, but I’ve lived here most of my life and have never counted on extended warmer weather until late April the earliest. 

I'm counting on the 11 yr cycle of very hot summers holding true again this year and typically you get hot weather in such seasons beginning in April.  There might be some snow in March, probably less than or equal to 6" but I expect to see 90 degrees beginning in April and frequently thereafter.  I'd also expect the summer to be dry, which is usually the case with these 11 yr cycles.

 

[donsutherland1]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

would this be enough to get NYC to 40"?

JFK getting to 30" for sure

Central Park still needs 6.2” to reach 40.0”.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

Central Park still needs 6.2” to reach 40.0”.

Okay so this plus something in March.  Based on your stats it seems like there would be a 50% chance of NYC getting 6" of snow in March.

 

[WarrenCtyWx]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

sounds like VD 2007

The weird thing about that event was the fact that there was only about 2” of front end snow that quickly turned to sleet, followed by hours upon hours of sleet. The next day we got about 2-4” of heavy snow on the back end here in NW NJ.

[MJO812]

Models are starting to look more like a Miller A

 

[NEG NAO]

[MJO812]

Looking more like a Miller A

[NEG NAO]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Looking more like a Miller A

Euro and GFS similar track now--close to  benchmark

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Looking more like a Miller A

Yeah actually it is. Temperatures stay below freezing the entire time and it may not be finished trending.

Maybe our post -5 AO drop will work out after all.

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yeah actually it is. Temperatures stay below freezing the entire time and it may not be finished trending.

Maybe our post -5 AO drop will work out after all.

I was just thinking this

[eduggs]

The GFS keeps looking better and better... as does most guidance. The initial shortwave that moves through the midwest around day 3 has been trending less sharp. This in combination with the shortwave moving through the Maritimes has really improved the 500mb height field across several cycles. I'm starting to think some of us might be able to maintain frozen precip. throughout. Gotta think we can start talking about the possibility of at least a 4-6" snowfall - borderline warning, if this scenario holds or keeps trending.

 

[eduggs]

v16 looks like mostly snow around and north of NYC.

[HVSnowLover]

GFS v16 is close to all snow for the city 

CMC is heavy snow to sleet for the city (all frozen) 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

43 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I'm counting on the 11 yr cycle of very hot summers holding true again this year and typically you get hot weather in such seasons beginning in April.  There might be some snow in March, probably less than or equal to 6" but I expect to see 90 degrees beginning in April and frequently thereafter.  I'd also expect the summer to be dry, which is usually the case with these 11 yr cycles.

 

You do realize 90 degrees in April in NYC is pretty rare.

There have been 12 Aprils in 152 years of record keeping that have had a day of 90 or above in NYC. Since a few of those 12 years had 2 days, or in 1976 & 2002 3 days, there have been 19 days in total in April of 90 degrees of 4,560 total April days in that period. The average is a about every 12 years or so NYC sees a 90 degree day in April so not far from the 11 year cycles you reference.

[HVSnowLover]

16 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Looking more like a Miller A

Still a miller B I think as it snows into Ohio and to the Canadian border

[eduggs]

All guidance now points to a significant winter weather event for the entire area. The duration now looks like it could extend 24 hours or more. Only the NAM still shows a dryslot moving in early Fri.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, eduggs said:

All guidance now points to a significant winter weather event for the entire area. The duration now looks like it could extend 24 hours or more. Only the NAM still shows a dryslot moving in early Fri.

Looks like overrunning  to a coastal

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

All guidance now points to a significant winter weather event for the entire area. The duration now looks like it could extend 24 hours or more. Only the NAM still shows a dryslot moving in early Fri.

Agree because of the snow to ice potential I think WSW will be issued tomorrow if the 12Z runs maintain this look.  

[NEG NAO]

0Z Canadian track similar to GFS and EURO

[eduggs]

I think miller A and B are extremely simplistic labels for a synoptic evolution that can have a wide spectrum of characteristics. Surface pressure is a response to upper level divergence and convergence, air density, topography etc. There can be one max/min point or many. A SLP doesn't move from one place to another like a truck down a highway. It forms, strengthens, weakens, moves, or transfers in response to changes in the upper levels.

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

0Z Canadian track similar to GFS and EURO

It's very close to something more than a minor to moderate event. 

Let's hope the trends continue tomorrow.

[eduggs]

The model charts definitely look good and the trends are good. But I STILL think sleet (or eventually ZR) is a risk here to significantly cut down on snowfall. Most guidance gets significant snows into the the Adirondacks and northern VT. As others have noted, when WAA is strong enough to push significant snow that far north, we usually have mixing problems down at our latitude. Even the snowier solutions have sleet very close by in CNJ pretty early in the game. We don't have a lot of margin here. I'd like to see guidance increasingly focus significant snow south of the Albany NY latitude.

[HVSnowLover]

3 minutes ago, Brett said:

You are much more knowledgeable than me but is it a bad sign that this storm is moving north now given what all the other storms have done at the last minute so far this winter? 

Its trending south, not north. I wouldn't be surprised if it moves back a little north though.   

[eduggs]

3 minutes ago, Brett said:

You are much more knowledgeable than me but is it a bad sign that this storm is moving north now given what all the other storms have done at the last minute so far this winter? 

I haven't seen anything shifting north so far with this event. Trends over the past few days have been really positive. This could reverse or continue but I have no feeling about which is more likely. I'll be looking for trends in modeled QPF and forecast soundings from here on out.

[eduggs]

The GEFS have significantly improved over the course of the day, generally following the op. The mean now shows mostly snow as the ptype with around 0.75 QPF. That's a big change from recent runs that showed 1-1.5" with the majority rain.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

You do realize 90 degrees in April in NYC is pretty rare.

There have been 12 Aprils in 152 years of record keeping that have had a day of 90 or above in NYC. Since a few of those 12 years had 2 days, or in 1976 & 2002 3 days, there have been 19 days in total in April of 90 degrees of 4,560 total April days in that period. The average is a about every 12 years or so NYC sees a 90 degree day in April so not far from the 11 year cycles you reference.

Many more of them in the last 30 years or so.  The last time was 11 years ago at the previous peak of the cycle which also happened to be the earliest on record.

Yes, it was in 2010 lol.....April 7th, the same day we had a snowstorm in 2003, we hit 92 in 2010 (both years were big on snowfall but ended differently.)

 

[LibertyBell]

37 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The GEFS have significantly improved over the course of the day, generally following the op. The mean now shows mostly snow as the ptype with around 0.75 QPF. That's a big change from recent runs that showed 1-1.5" with the majority rain.

so now you believe this could be entirely snow during the day at least for NYC/Western LI?

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Looks like overrunning  to a coastal

PD2 type storm incoming